Ashcraft, Graham
Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.21 |
| ERA current pace | 3.33 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.92 |
| Observed weight | 33% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC | 51.3% | 231 | 98 | qualified |
| SL | 48.7% | 219 | 108 | qualified |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -0.97 |
| K% Δ | +0.088 |
| Sample | 28.7 IP |
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 45.4 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 200 | -- | -- |
| K% | 21.5% | 14.6% to 28.3% | +/- 6.9% |
| BB% | 8.6% | 5.0% to 12.1% | +/- 3.5% |
| Whiff% | 24.8% | 20.0% to 31.7% | +/- 5.9% |
| HR/9 | 1.12 | 0.57 to 2.09 | +/- 0.76 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.317 | 0.277 to 0.383 | +/- 0.053 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.2% | 4.1% to 10.6% | +/- 3.2% |
| ERA | 4.30 | 2.47 to 7.14 | +/- 2.34 |
| FIP | 4.03 | 2.78 to 6.06 | +/- 1.64 |
| WHIP | 1.427 | 1.132 to 1.846 | +/- 0.357 |
834 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.320 |
| K% | 17.9% |
| BB% | 8.7% |
| Barrel | 6.2% |
977 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.319 |
| K% | 18.6% |
| BB% | 7.8% |
| Barrel | 6.8% |