Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CIN · 2026

Ashcraft, Graham

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
21.5% K%
Range
14.6% to 28.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team CIN Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 28 Status IL-60
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.21
ERA current pace3.33
ERA rolling p503.92
Observed weight33%
ERA
2.18 3.00 3.92 4.84 5.66
FIP
2.39 2.97 3.61 4.26 4.84
K%
19.4% 21.7% 24.3% 26.9% 29.2%
BB%
8.2% 9.4% 10.9% 12.3% 13.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%14.3%
6 -47 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.5%
39 -18 vs proj
Hard-hit allowed44.1%
22
K%30.3%
91 +48 vs proj
Whiff%30.9%
91 +28 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.287
74 +28 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+103
59
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

2Pitches 2026Season 51%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ashcraft, Graham · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3112026-05-19: 0.3112026-05-21: 0.3142026-05-23: 0.3092026-05-24: 0.2952026-05-25: 0.2942026-05-26: 0.2872026-05-28: 0.2872026-05-29: 0.2872026-05-30: 0.2872026-05-31: 0.2872026-06-01: 0.287 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ashcraft, Graham · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 31%31%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ashcraft, Graham · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 51.1%Slider: 48.9% MIX FC 51%SL 49% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ashcraft, Graham · 2026 arsenal snapshot FC: HB 0.0, IVB 1.4FCSL: HB -0.1, IVB 2.8SL horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 51.3% 231 98 qualified
SL 48.7% 219 108 qualified
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Cutter 55%, Slider 45%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.97
K% Δ+0.088
Sample28.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings45.4----
Batters Faced200----
K%21.5%14.6% to 28.3%+/- 6.9%
BB%8.6%5.0% to 12.1%+/- 3.5%
Whiff%24.8%20.0% to 31.7%+/- 5.9%
HR/91.120.57 to 2.09+/- 0.76
xwOBA Against0.3170.277 to 0.383+/- 0.053
Barrel% Allowed7.2%4.1% to 10.6%+/- 3.2%
ERA4.302.47 to 7.14+/- 2.34
FIP4.032.78 to 6.06+/- 1.64
WHIP1.4271.132 to 1.846+/- 0.357
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

834 career BF

xwOBA0.320
K%17.9%
BB%8.7%
Barrel6.2%
vs RHH

977 career BF

xwOBA0.319
K%18.6%
BB%7.8%
Barrel6.8%