Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tarik Skubal
Probable | projected
|
DET vs PHI
Score 83.0 | Lineup K 7.15
|
6.53 | 6.93 | +0.40 | 87.2% | 77.0% | 64.6% | 51.5% | 39.1% |
Zack Wheeler
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs DET
Score 81.6 | Lineup K 7.11
|
6.39 | 6.81 | +0.42 | 86.4% | 75.9% | 63.2% | 50.0% | 37.6% |
Paul Skenes
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs MIL
Score 75.4 | Lineup K 6.05
|
5.71 | 5.95 | +0.24 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 52.2% | 38.6% | 26.9% |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs HOU
Score 54.1 | Lineup K 5.17
|
6.15 | 5.83 | -0.32 | 78.9% | 65.2% | 50.6% | 36.9% | 25.4% |
Taj Bradley
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs LAA
Score 63.2 | Lineup K 6.22
|
5.38 | 5.68 | +0.30 | 77.4% | 63.3% | 48.4% | 34.8% | 23.6% |
José Soriano
Probable | projected
|
LAA vs MIN
Score 50.1 | Lineup K 5.93
|
5.55 | 5.63 | +0.08 | 76.9% | 62.6% | 47.7% | 34.1% | 23.0% |
Kevin Gausman
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs SD
Score 55.6 | Lineup K 5.54
|
5.54 | 5.56 | +0.02 | 76.2% | 61.7% | 46.7% | 33.2% | 22.2% |
Matthew Boyd
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs CIN
Score 56.7 | Lineup K 5.49
|
4.94 | 5.16 | +0.22 | 71.7% | 56.0% | 40.7% | 27.7% | 17.7% |
Joey Cantillo
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs MIA
Score 55.1 | Lineup K 5.16
|
4.97 | 5.06 | +0.09 | 70.5% | 54.5% | 39.2% | 26.3% | 16.6% |
Shane Baz
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs KC
Score 47.6 | Lineup K 4.95
|
5.03 | 4.99 | -0.04 | 69.6% | 53.5% | 38.1% | 25.4% | 15.9% |
Emmet Sheehan
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs AZ
Score 53.2 | Lineup K 4.75
|
5.07 | 4.97 | -0.10 | 69.3% | 53.1% | 37.8% | 25.1% | 15.7% |
Seth Lugo
Probable | projected
|
KC vs BAL
Score 41.4 | Lineup K 5.38
|
4.73 | 4.92 | +0.19 | 68.7% | 52.4% | 37.1% | 24.5% | 15.2% |
Will Warren
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs WSH
Score 43.5 | Lineup K 4.76
|
4.74 | 4.72 | -0.02 | 65.9% | 49.2% | 34.0% | 21.9% | 13.2% |
J.t. Ginn
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs CWS
Score 63.7 | Lineup K 5.59
|
4.14 | 4.69 | +0.55 | 65.5% | 48.7% | 33.5% | 21.5% | 12.9% |
Dustin May
Probable | projected
|
STL vs ATL
Score 28.7 | Lineup K 4.78
|
4.20 | 4.33 | +0.13 | 60.0% | 42.7% | 28.0% | 17.0% | 9.7% |
Andrew Abbott
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs CHC
Score 39.9 | Lineup K 4.56
|
4.01 | 4.17 | +0.16 | 57.4% | 40.0% | 25.6% | 15.2% | 8.4% |
Michael Lorenzen
Probable | projected
|
COL vs SF
Score 41.0 | Lineup K 4.46
|
3.75 | 3.97 | +0.22 | 54.0% | 36.5% | 22.6% | 13.0% | 6.9% |
Cade Cavalli
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs NYY
Score 30.4 | Lineup K 5.07
|
3.42 | 3.77 | +0.35 | 50.4% | 33.0% | 19.8% | 10.9% | 5.6% |
Emerson Hancock
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs TB
Score 27.0 | Lineup K 3.70
|
3.90 | 3.76 | -0.14 | 50.2% | 32.8% | 19.6% | 10.8% | 5.5% |
Cristian Javier
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs TEX
Score 37.4 | Lineup K 4.88
|
3.06 | 3.39 | +0.33 | 43.1% | 26.4% | 14.6% | 7.5% | 3.6% |
Germán Márquez
Probable | projected
|
SD vs TOR
Score 11.1 | Lineup K 3.27
|
3.42 | 3.26 | -0.16 | 40.5% | 24.1% | 13.0% | 6.5% | 3.0% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.