Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Sale
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs STL
Score 80.9 | Lineup K 6.71
|
6.14 | 6.50 | +0.36 | 84.4% | 72.8% | 59.5% | 46.0% | 33.7% |
Hunter Greene
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs CHC
Score 70.1 | Lineup K 6.04
|
6.27 | 6.29 | +0.02 | 82.8% | 70.6% | 56.8% | 43.2% | 31.1% |
Hunter Brown
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs TEX
Score 68.0 | Lineup K 6.12
|
6.07 | 6.11 | +0.04 | 81.4% | 68.6% | 54.4% | 40.7% | 28.8% |
Jack Flaherty
Probable | projected
|
DET vs PHI
Score 62.8 | Lineup K 5.93
|
5.79 | 5.90 | +0.11 | 79.5% | 66.1% | 51.5% | 37.9% | 26.3% |
Robbie Ray
Probable | projected
|
SF vs COL
Score 64.4 | Lineup K 6.28
|
5.58 | 5.89 | +0.31 | 79.4% | 65.9% | 51.4% | 37.7% | 26.2% |
Zebby Matthews
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs LAA
Score 58.0 | Lineup K 5.94
|
5.05 | 5.40 | +0.35 | 74.5% | 59.5% | 44.3% | 31.0% | 20.4% |
Aaron Nola
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs DET
Score 56.2 | Lineup K 5.89
|
4.93 | 5.29 | +0.36 | 73.2% | 57.9% | 42.7% | 29.5% | 19.1% |
Shota Imanaga
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs CIN
Score 57.5 | Lineup K 5.62
|
4.97 | 5.23 | +0.26 | 72.5% | 57.0% | 41.8% | 28.6% | 18.5% |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs CLE
Score 51.0 | Lineup K 4.99
|
5.08 | 5.05 | -0.03 | 70.3% | 54.4% | 39.1% | 26.2% | 16.5% |
Luis Castillo
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs TB
Score 59.6 | Lineup K 5.36
|
4.56 | 4.88 | +0.32 | 68.1% | 51.7% | 36.5% | 23.9% | 14.8% |
Sonny Gray
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs NYM
Score 59.9 | Lineup K 6.14
|
4.30 | 4.85 | +0.55 | 67.7% | 51.3% | 36.0% | 23.5% | 14.4% |
Shane Bieber
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs SD
Score 45.3 | Lineup K 5.31
|
4.58 | 4.82 | +0.24 | 67.3% | 50.8% | 35.5% | 23.2% | 14.1% |
Ryan Weathers
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs WSH
Score 39.6 | Lineup K 4.38
|
4.87 | 4.66 | -0.21 | 65.0% | 48.2% | 33.1% | 21.1% | 12.6% |
Jacob Lopez
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs CWS
Score 60.8 | Lineup K 5.20
|
4.21 | 4.60 | +0.39 | 64.2% | 47.3% | 32.1% | 20.3% | 12.0% |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs LAD
Score 34.8 | Lineup K 5.03
|
4.02 | 4.32 | +0.30 | 59.9% | 42.6% | 27.9% | 16.9% | 9.6% |
Sean Burke
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs ATH
Score 38.5 | Lineup K 4.94
|
4.05 | 4.32 | +0.27 | 59.9% | 42.6% | 27.9% | 16.9% | 9.6% |
Jp Sears
Probable | projected
|
SD vs TOR
Score 32.0 | Lineup K 4.25
|
4.16 | 4.13 | -0.03 | 56.8% | 39.3% | 25.0% | 14.7% | 8.1% |
Nick Martinez
Probable | projected
|
TB vs SEA
Score 32.4 | Lineup K 4.65
|
3.85 | 4.07 | +0.22 | 55.7% | 38.3% | 24.1% | 14.0% | 7.6% |
Tanner Gordon
Probable | projected
|
COL vs SF
Score 33.7 | Lineup K 3.87
|
3.60 | 3.65 | +0.05 | 48.1% | 30.9% | 18.1% | 9.8% | 4.9% |
Brandon Young
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs KC
Score 23.1 | Lineup K 3.80
|
3.67 | 3.64 | -0.03 | 47.9% | 30.7% | 17.9% | 9.7% | 4.9% |
Cal Quantrill
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs HOU
Score 17.8 | Lineup K 3.85
|
3.22 | 3.32 | +0.10 | 41.7% | 25.2% | 13.8% | 6.9% | 3.2% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.