Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs SF
Score 72.2 | Lineup K 6.19
|
6.56 | 6.54 | -0.02 | 84.7% | 73.2% | 60.0% | 46.5% | 34.2% |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs LAA
Score 65.2 | Lineup K 6.25
|
6.15 | 6.20 | +0.05 | 82.1% | 69.6% | 55.6% | 42.0% | 30.0% |
Logan Webb
Probable | projected
|
SF vs TOR
Score 52.6 | Lineup K 5.32
|
5.69 | 5.57 | -0.12 | 76.3% | 61.8% | 46.9% | 33.3% | 22.3% |
George Kirby
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs MIA
Score 66.2 | Lineup K 5.63
|
5.25 | 5.45 | +0.20 | 75.0% | 60.2% | 45.1% | 31.7% | 20.9% |
Michael King
Probable | projected
|
SD vs AZ
Score 53.7 | Lineup K 5.05
|
5.08 | 5.08 | +0.00 | 70.7% | 54.8% | 39.5% | 26.6% | 16.8% |
Spencer Arrighetti
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs WSH
Score 47.8 | Lineup K 5.02
|
4.81 | 4.87 | +0.06 | 68.0% | 51.6% | 36.3% | 23.8% | 14.6% |
Grant Holmes
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs PIT
Score 50.0 | Lineup K 5.52
|
4.44 | 4.82 | +0.38 | 67.3% | 50.8% | 35.5% | 23.2% | 14.1% |
Kyle Harrison
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs STL
Score 45.1 | Lineup K 4.89
|
4.75 | 4.78 | +0.03 | 66.8% | 50.2% | 34.9% | 22.6% | 13.8% |
Dean Kremer
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs CHC
Score 39.2 | Lineup K 4.80
|
4.81 | 4.76 | -0.05 | 66.5% | 49.9% | 34.6% | 22.4% | 13.6% |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs DET
Score 37.8 | Lineup K 4.63
|
4.30 | 4.37 | +0.07 | 60.7% | 43.4% | 28.6% | 17.5% | 10.0% |
Davis Martin
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs BOS
Score 26.9 | Lineup K 4.33
|
4.36 | 4.27 | -0.09 | 59.1% | 41.7% | 27.1% | 16.3% | 9.2% |
Colin Rea
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs BAL
Score 35.4 | Lineup K 4.93
|
3.90 | 4.21 | +0.31 | 58.1% | 40.7% | 26.2% | 15.6% | 8.7% |
Slade Cecconi
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs MIN
Score 37.1 | Lineup K 4.58
|
3.80 | 4.03 | +0.23 | 55.0% | 37.6% | 23.5% | 13.6% | 7.3% |
Michael McGreevy
Probable | projected
|
STL vs MIL
Score 24.9 | Lineup K 3.76
|
2.96 | 3.17 | +0.21 | 38.7% | 22.6% | 12.0% | 5.8% | 2.6% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.