Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tarik Skubal
Probable | projected
|
DET vs ATH
Score 86.7 | Lineup K 7.51
|
6.53 | 7.07 | +0.54 | 88.0% | 78.2% | 66.2% | 53.3% | 40.8% |
Jacob deGrom
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs LAA
Score 79.9 | Lineup K 6.53
|
5.58 | 6.05 | +0.47 | 80.8% | 67.9% | 53.6% | 39.9% | 28.1% |
Paul Skenes
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs ATL
Score 70.9 | Lineup K 6.21
|
5.71 | 5.98 | +0.27 | 80.2% | 67.0% | 52.7% | 39.0% | 27.3% |
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs STL
Score 73.2 | Lineup K 5.49
|
5.98 | 5.92 | -0.06 | 79.7% | 66.3% | 51.8% | 38.1% | 26.5% |
José Soriano
Probable | projected
|
LAA vs TEX
Score 39.3 | Lineup K 5.47
|
5.55 | 5.47 | -0.08 | 75.2% | 60.5% | 45.4% | 31.9% | 21.2% |
Taj Bradley
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs CLE
Score 59.0 | Lineup K 5.06
|
5.38 | 5.31 | -0.07 | 73.5% | 58.2% | 43.0% | 29.7% | 19.4% |
Joey Cantillo
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs MIN
Score 54.6 | Lineup K 5.27
|
4.97 | 5.09 | +0.12 | 70.8% | 55.0% | 39.7% | 26.7% | 16.9% |
Shane Baz
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs CHC
Score 44.3 | Lineup K 5.16
|
5.03 | 5.05 | +0.02 | 70.3% | 54.4% | 39.1% | 26.2% | 16.5% |
Max Meyer
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs SEA
Score 35.6 | Lineup K 5.31
|
4.96 | 5.02 | +0.06 | 70.0% | 53.9% | 38.6% | 25.8% | 16.2% |
Matthew Boyd
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs BAL
Score 45.2 | Lineup K 5.14
|
4.94 | 4.99 | +0.05 | 69.6% | 53.5% | 38.1% | 25.4% | 15.9% |
Seth Lugo
Probable | projected
|
KC vs NYM
Score 37.3 | Lineup K 5.02
|
4.73 | 4.78 | +0.05 | 66.8% | 50.2% | 34.9% | 22.6% | 13.8% |
Will Warren
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs TB
Score 47.4 | Lineup K 4.78
|
4.74 | 4.74 | +0.00 | 66.2% | 49.5% | 34.3% | 22.1% | 13.4% |
J.t. Ginn
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs DET
Score 58.9 | Lineup K 5.83
|
4.14 | 4.67 | +0.53 | 65.2% | 48.4% | 33.2% | 21.2% | 12.7% |
Hurston Waldrep
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs PIT
Score 50.3 | Lineup K 5.25
|
4.20 | 4.57 | +0.37 | 63.7% | 46.8% | 31.7% | 20.0% | 11.8% |
Andrew Abbott
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs PHI
Score 46.1 | Lineup K 5.13
|
4.01 | 4.39 | +0.38 | 61.0% | 43.8% | 28.9% | 17.7% | 10.2% |
Zac Gallen
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs SD
Score 41.9 | Lineup K 5.14
|
3.85 | 4.27 | +0.42 | 59.1% | 41.7% | 27.1% | 16.3% | 9.2% |
Michael Lorenzen
Probable | projected
|
COL vs LAD
Score 24.5 | Lineup K 4.34
|
3.75 | 3.88 | +0.13 | 52.4% | 34.9% | 21.3% | 12.0% | 6.3% |
Germán Márquez
Probable | projected
|
SD vs AZ
Score 7.9 | Lineup K 2.99
|
3.42 | 3.16 | -0.26 | 38.5% | 22.4% | 11.9% | 5.8% | 2.6% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.