Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Freddy Peralta
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs ATL
Score 62.2 | Lineup K 5.87
|
5.54 | 5.71 | +0.17 | 77.7% | 63.7% | 48.9% | 35.2% | 24.0% |
Kevin Gausman
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs SF
Score 60.0 | Lineup K 5.66
|
5.54 | 5.63 | +0.09 | 76.9% | 62.6% | 47.7% | 34.1% | 23.0% |
Cam Schlittler
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs TB
Score 65.8 | Lineup K 5.37
|
5.61 | 5.60 | -0.01 | 76.6% | 62.2% | 47.3% | 33.7% | 22.7% |
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs KC
Score 57.0 | Lineup K 5.13
|
5.84 | 5.57 | -0.27 | 76.3% | 61.8% | 46.9% | 33.3% | 22.3% |
Eric Lauer
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs COL
Score 53.2 | Lineup K 5.16
|
4.27 | 4.59 | +0.32 | 64.0% | 47.1% | 32.0% | 20.2% | 11.9% |
Noah Cameron
Probable | projected
|
KC vs PHI
Score 41.6 | Lineup K 5.01
|
4.38 | 4.52 | +0.14 | 63.0% | 45.9% | 30.9% | 19.3% | 11.3% |
Landen Roupp
Probable | projected
|
SF vs TOR
Score 33.7 | Lineup K 4.13
|
4.64 | 4.40 | -0.24 | 61.1% | 43.9% | 29.1% | 17.8% | 10.3% |
Brandon Pfaadt
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs SD
Score 39.5 | Lineup K 4.81
|
4.08 | 4.30 | +0.22 | 59.6% | 42.2% | 27.5% | 16.7% | 9.4% |
Dustin May
Probable | projected
|
STL vs MIL
Score 32.0 | Lineup K 4.61
|
4.20 | 4.28 | +0.08 | 59.2% | 41.9% | 27.2% | 16.4% | 9.3% |
Mike Burrows
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs WSH
Score 45.5 | Lineup K 4.25
|
4.31 | 4.27 | -0.04 | 59.1% | 41.7% | 27.1% | 16.3% | 9.2% |
Kyle Freeland
Probable | projected
|
COL vs LAD
Score 17.9 | Lineup K 3.92
|
3.67 | 3.66 | -0.01 | 48.3% | 31.1% | 18.2% | 9.8% | 5.0% |
Miles Mikolas
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs HOU
Score 22.1 | Lineup K 3.64
|
3.38 | 3.39 | +0.01 | 43.1% | 26.4% | 14.6% | 7.5% | 3.6% |
Walker Buehler
Probable | projected
|
SD vs AZ
Score 18.9 | Lineup K 3.40
|
3.48 | 3.37 | -0.11 | 42.7% | 26.0% | 14.4% | 7.3% | 3.5% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.