Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jesús Luzardo
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs CIN
Score 75.5 | Lineup K 6.67
|
5.93 | 6.32 | +0.39 | 83.0% | 70.9% | 57.2% | 43.6% | 31.5% |
Nathan Eovaldi
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs LAA
Score 66.4 | Lineup K 6.18
|
5.75 | 5.92 | +0.17 | 79.7% | 66.3% | 51.8% | 38.1% | 26.5% |
Framber Valdez
Probable | projected
|
DET vs ATH
Score 64.8 | Lineup K 6.87
|
4.95 | 5.61 | +0.66 | 76.7% | 62.4% | 47.4% | 33.9% | 22.8% |
Gavin Williams
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs MIN
Score 51.0 | Lineup K 5.45
|
5.52 | 5.50 | -0.02 | 75.6% | 60.9% | 45.8% | 32.4% | 21.5% |
Bryce Elder
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs PIT
Score 38.3 | Lineup K 5.05
|
4.86 | 4.88 | +0.02 | 68.1% | 51.7% | 36.5% | 23.9% | 14.8% |
Sean Manaea
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs KC
Score 53.0 | Lineup K 4.81
|
4.84 | 4.84 | +0.00 | 67.6% | 51.1% | 35.8% | 23.4% | 14.3% |
David Peterson
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs BAL
Score 40.0 | Lineup K 5.53
|
4.36 | 4.73 | +0.37 | 66.0% | 49.4% | 34.1% | 22.0% | 13.3% |
Brady Singer
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs PHI
Score 46.2 | Lineup K 5.47
|
4.28 | 4.68 | +0.40 | 65.3% | 48.6% | 33.4% | 21.3% | 12.8% |
Trevor Rogers
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs CHC
Score 36.9 | Lineup K 4.68
|
4.72 | 4.66 | -0.06 | 65.0% | 48.2% | 33.1% | 21.1% | 12.6% |
Mitch Keller
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs ATL
Score 41.3 | Lineup K 5.26
|
4.28 | 4.59 | +0.31 | 64.0% | 47.1% | 32.0% | 20.2% | 11.9% |
Michael Wacha
Probable | projected
|
KC vs NYM
Score 33.6 | Lineup K 4.69
|
4.60 | 4.57 | -0.03 | 63.7% | 46.8% | 31.7% | 20.0% | 11.8% |
Bailey Ober
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs CLE
Score 56.7 | Lineup K 4.81
|
4.34 | 4.53 | +0.19 | 63.1% | 46.1% | 31.1% | 19.4% | 11.4% |
Bryce Miller
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs MIA
Score 52.4 | Lineup K 5.04
|
4.05 | 4.40 | +0.35 | 61.1% | 43.9% | 29.1% | 17.8% | 10.3% |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable | projected
|
TB vs NYY
Score 47.4 | Lineup K 4.77
|
4.28 | 4.40 | +0.12 | 61.1% | 43.9% | 29.1% | 17.8% | 10.3% |
Merrill Kelly
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs SD
Score 44.2 | Lineup K 5.10
|
3.98 | 4.35 | +0.37 | 60.4% | 43.1% | 28.3% | 17.2% | 9.8% |
Griffin Canning
Probable | projected
|
SD vs AZ
Score 23.9 | Lineup K 3.98
|
4.08 | 3.96 | -0.12 | 53.8% | 36.3% | 22.5% | 12.8% | 6.9% |
Ryan Feltner
Probable | projected
|
COL vs SF
Score 42.6 | Lineup K 4.57
|
3.42 | 3.80 | +0.38 | 50.9% | 33.5% | 20.2% | 11.2% | 5.8% |
Janson Junk
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs SEA
Score 22.0 | Lineup K 3.76
|
3.56 | 3.55 | -0.01 | 46.2% | 29.1% | 16.7% | 8.8% | 4.3% |
Andre Pallante
Probable | projected
|
STL vs MIL
Score 26.8 | Lineup K 4.16
|
3.27 | 3.48 | +0.21 | 44.9% | 27.9% | 15.8% | 8.2% | 4.0% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.