Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Joe Ryan
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs LAA
Score 80.5 | Lineup K 6.85
|
6.04 | 6.41 | +0.37 | 83.7% | 71.9% | 58.4% | 44.8% | 32.6% |
Freddy Peralta
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs BOS
Score 65.6 | Lineup K 5.99
|
5.92 | 6.02 | +0.10 | 80.6% | 67.5% | 53.2% | 39.5% | 27.7% |
Logan Gilbert
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs TB
Score 69.3 | Lineup K 5.51
|
6.12 | 6.00 | -0.12 | 80.4% | 67.3% | 52.9% | 39.2% | 27.5% |
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs DET
Score 64.9 | Lineup K 6.04
|
5.84 | 5.98 | +0.14 | 80.2% | 67.0% | 52.7% | 39.0% | 27.3% |
Kyle Bradish
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs KC
Score 64.7 | Lineup K 5.45
|
5.86 | 5.78 | -0.08 | 78.4% | 64.6% | 49.9% | 36.2% | 24.8% |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs AZ
Score 59.3 | Lineup K 5.04
|
5.87 | 5.62 | -0.25 | 76.8% | 62.5% | 47.6% | 34.0% | 22.9% |
Cam Schlittler
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs WSH
Score 60.6 | Lineup K 5.23
|
5.61 | 5.52 | -0.09 | 75.8% | 61.1% | 46.1% | 32.6% | 21.7% |
Nick Lodolo
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs CHC
Score 50.8 | Lineup K 5.30
|
5.17 | 5.22 | +0.05 | 72.4% | 56.9% | 41.6% | 28.5% | 18.4% |
Tanner Bibee
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs MIA
Score 61.9 | Lineup K 5.75
|
4.59 | 5.04 | +0.45 | 70.2% | 54.2% | 38.9% | 26.1% | 16.4% |
Casey Mize
Probable | projected
|
DET vs PHI
Score 40.3 | Lineup K 4.79
|
5.14 | 4.98 | -0.16 | 69.4% | 53.3% | 38.0% | 25.3% | 15.8% |
Eury Pérez
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs CLE
Score 63.1 | Lineup K 4.75
|
4.66 | 4.74 | +0.08 | 66.2% | 49.5% | 34.3% | 22.1% | 13.4% |
Tyler Mahle
Probable | projected
|
SF vs COL
Score 52.7 | Lineup K 5.07
|
4.40 | 4.64 | +0.24 | 64.8% | 47.9% | 32.8% | 20.8% | 12.4% |
Noah Cameron
Probable | projected
|
KC vs BAL
Score 36.5 | Lineup K 5.05
|
4.00 | 4.32 | +0.32 | 59.9% | 42.6% | 27.9% | 16.9% | 9.6% |
Brandon Pfaadt
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs LAD
Score 33.3 | Lineup K 4.86
|
4.08 | 4.29 | +0.21 | 59.4% | 42.0% | 27.4% | 16.5% | 9.3% |
Kumar Rocker
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs HOU
Score 34.6 | Lineup K 4.43
|
4.22 | 4.24 | +0.02 | 58.6% | 41.2% | 26.6% | 16.0% | 8.9% |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable | projected
|
STL vs ATL
Score 19.6 | Lineup K 3.98
|
3.83 | 3.79 | -0.04 | 50.7% | 33.4% | 20.0% | 11.1% | 5.7% |
Kyle Freeland
Probable | projected
|
COL vs SF
Score 27.7 | Lineup K 3.95
|
3.67 | 3.70 | +0.03 | 49.1% | 31.8% | 18.8% | 10.2% | 5.2% |
Miles Mikolas
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs NYY
Score 20.9 | Lineup K 4.14
|
3.38 | 3.56 | +0.18 | 46.4% | 29.3% | 16.9% | 8.9% | 4.4% |
Javier Assad
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs CIN
Score 36.6 | Lineup K 4.93
|
3.19 | 3.53 | +0.34 | 45.9% | 28.8% | 16.5% | 8.7% | 4.2% |
Walker Buehler
Probable | projected
|
SD vs TOR
Score 24.4 | Lineup K 3.77
|
3.48 | 3.51 | +0.03 | 45.5% | 28.4% | 16.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.