Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Joe Ryan
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs NYY
Score 66.2 | Lineup K 6.52
|
5.66 | 6.04 | +0.38 | 80.8% | 67.8% | 53.5% | 39.8% | 28.0% |
Kyle Bradish
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs CIN
Score 78.5 | Lineup K 6.59
|
5.48 | 6.00 | +0.52 | 80.4% | 67.3% | 52.9% | 39.2% | 27.5% |
Nick Lodolo
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs BAL
Score 55.6 | Lineup K 5.97
|
5.17 | 5.47 | +0.30 | 75.2% | 60.5% | 45.4% | 31.9% | 21.2% |
Emmet Sheehan
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs SD
Score 58.6 | Lineup K 5.27
|
5.07 | 5.18 | +0.11 | 71.9% | 56.3% | 41.0% | 28.0% | 17.9% |
Tanner Bibee
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs CWS
Score 58.6 | Lineup K 5.29
|
4.97 | 5.12 | +0.15 | 71.2% | 55.4% | 40.1% | 27.2% | 17.3% |
Aaron Nola
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs KC
Score 53.6 | Lineup K 5.35
|
4.93 | 5.04 | +0.11 | 70.2% | 54.2% | 38.9% | 26.1% | 16.4% |
Ryan Weathers
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs MIN
Score 39.3 | Lineup K 4.68
|
5.25 | 5.01 | -0.24 | 69.8% | 53.8% | 38.5% | 25.7% | 16.1% |
Ranger Suarez
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs LAA
Score 60.2 | Lineup K 5.88
|
4.25 | 4.80 | +0.55 | 67.0% | 50.5% | 35.2% | 22.9% | 14.0% |
Eury Pérez
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs ATH
Score 64.1 | Lineup K 5.55
|
4.28 | 4.73 | +0.45 | 66.0% | 49.4% | 34.1% | 22.0% | 13.3% |
Casey Mize
Probable | projected
|
DET vs TEX
Score 34.6 | Lineup K 4.63
|
4.77 | 4.62 | -0.15 | 64.5% | 47.6% | 32.5% | 20.6% | 12.2% |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs MIL
Score 41.8 | Lineup K 4.94
|
4.39 | 4.55 | +0.16 | 63.4% | 46.4% | 31.4% | 19.7% | 11.6% |
Tyler Mahle
Probable | projected
|
SF vs COL
Score 53.6 | Lineup K 5.07
|
4.02 | 4.40 | +0.38 | 61.1% | 43.9% | 29.1% | 17.8% | 10.3% |
Kumar Rocker
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs DET
Score 37.8 | Lineup K 4.75
|
4.22 | 4.32 | +0.10 | 59.9% | 42.6% | 27.9% | 16.9% | 9.6% |
Emerson Hancock
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs TOR
Score 21.8 | Lineup K 3.78
|
4.28 | 4.01 | -0.27 | 54.7% | 37.2% | 23.2% | 13.4% | 7.2% |
Jp Sears
Probable | projected
|
SD vs LAD
Score 25.3 | Lineup K 4.40
|
3.78 | 3.92 | +0.14 | 53.1% | 35.6% | 21.9% | 12.4% | 6.6% |
Tanner Gordon
Probable | projected
|
COL vs SF
Score 34.7 | Lineup K 3.87
|
3.98 | 3.89 | -0.09 | 52.6% | 35.1% | 21.5% | 12.1% | 6.4% |
Javier Assad
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs STL
Score 35.3 | Lineup K 4.48
|
3.57 | 3.84 | +0.27 | 51.7% | 34.2% | 20.7% | 11.6% | 6.0% |
Cade Cavalli
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs PIT
Score 33.5 | Lineup K 4.70
|
3.42 | 3.74 | +0.32 | 49.8% | 32.5% | 19.3% | 10.6% | 5.4% |
Martín Pérez
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs NYM
Score 16.1 | Lineup K 4.10
|
3.48 | 3.56 | +0.08 | 46.4% | 29.3% | 16.9% | 8.9% | 4.4% |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable | projected
|
STL vs CHC
Score 23.1 | Lineup K 3.70
|
3.45 | 3.46 | +0.01 | 44.5% | 27.6% | 15.6% | 8.1% | 3.9% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.