Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Sale
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs NYM
Score 72.8 | Lineup K 6.43
|
6.52 | 6.61 | +0.09 | 85.1% | 73.9% | 60.8% | 47.4% | 35.1% |
Hunter Greene
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs BAL
Score 71.3 | Lineup K 6.48
|
6.27 | 6.45 | +0.18 | 84.0% | 72.3% | 58.9% | 45.3% | 33.1% |
Logan Gilbert
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs TOR
Score 66.0 | Lineup K 5.61
|
6.50 | 6.27 | -0.23 | 82.7% | 70.4% | 56.5% | 42.9% | 30.8% |
Hunter Brown
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs TB
Score 67.7 | Lineup K 5.59
|
6.44 | 6.23 | -0.21 | 82.3% | 69.9% | 56.0% | 42.4% | 30.3% |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs SD
Score 67.3 | Lineup K 5.63
|
5.87 | 5.87 | +0.00 | 79.2% | 65.7% | 51.1% | 37.5% | 25.9% |
Jesús Luzardo
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs KC
Score 61.2 | Lineup K 5.38
|
5.93 | 5.79 | -0.14 | 78.5% | 64.7% | 50.0% | 36.4% | 24.9% |
Robbie Ray
Probable | projected
|
SF vs COL
Score 65.0 | Lineup K 6.28
|
5.20 | 5.64 | +0.44 | 77.0% | 62.7% | 47.9% | 34.3% | 23.2% |
Jack Flaherty
Probable | projected
|
DET vs TEX
Score 57.7 | Lineup K 5.75
|
5.41 | 5.51 | +0.10 | 75.7% | 61.0% | 46.0% | 32.5% | 21.6% |
Brandon Woodruff
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs AZ
Score 69.8 | Lineup K 5.60
|
5.26 | 5.46 | +0.20 | 75.1% | 60.3% | 45.2% | 31.8% | 21.1% |
Shota Imanaga
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs STL
Score 55.9 | Lineup K 5.18
|
5.35 | 5.32 | -0.03 | 73.6% | 58.4% | 43.1% | 29.9% | 19.5% |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs ATH
Score 51.8 | Lineup K 5.83
|
4.70 | 5.10 | +0.40 | 71.0% | 55.1% | 39.8% | 26.9% | 17.0% |
Shane Bieber
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs SEA
Score 45.5 | Lineup K 5.77
|
4.58 | 4.98 | +0.40 | 69.4% | 53.3% | 38.0% | 25.3% | 15.8% |
Sonny Gray
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs LAA
Score 77.5 | Lineup K 7.02
|
4.30 | 4.92 | +0.62 | 68.7% | 52.4% | 37.1% | 24.5% | 15.2% |
Michael Wacha
Probable | projected
|
KC vs PHI
Score 42.4 | Lineup K 4.88
|
4.98 | 4.91 | -0.07 | 68.5% | 52.2% | 36.9% | 24.3% | 15.1% |
Zebby Matthews
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs NYY
Score 44.8 | Lineup K 5.61
|
4.68 | 4.88 | +0.20 | 68.1% | 51.7% | 36.5% | 23.9% | 14.8% |
Sean Manaea
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs ATL
Score 52.1 | Lineup K 5.51
|
4.46 | 4.84 | +0.38 | 67.6% | 51.1% | 35.8% | 23.4% | 14.3% |
Merrill Kelly
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs MIL
Score 44.7 | Lineup K 5.03
|
4.36 | 4.58 | +0.22 | 63.9% | 46.9% | 31.8% | 20.1% | 11.9% |
Aaron Civale
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs MIA
Score 48.0 | Lineup K 4.91
|
4.04 | 4.34 | +0.30 | 60.2% | 42.9% | 28.1% | 17.1% | 9.8% |
Kumar Rocker
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs DET
Score 37.8 | Lineup K 4.75
|
4.22 | 4.32 | +0.10 | 59.9% | 42.6% | 27.9% | 16.9% | 9.6% |
Zack Littell
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs PIT
Score 41.3 | Lineup K 4.53
|
3.96 | 4.09 | +0.13 | 56.1% | 38.6% | 24.4% | 14.3% | 7.8% |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable | projected
|
TB vs HOU
Score 48.1 | Lineup K 4.11
|
3.90 | 3.97 | +0.07 | 54.0% | 36.5% | 22.6% | 13.0% | 6.9% |
Griffin Canning
Probable | projected
|
SD vs LAD
Score 24.1 | Lineup K 4.48
|
3.70 | 3.89 | +0.19 | 52.6% | 35.1% | 21.5% | 12.1% | 6.4% |
Sean Burke
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs CLE
Score 39.1 | Lineup K 4.18
|
3.67 | 3.81 | +0.14 | 51.1% | 33.7% | 20.3% | 11.3% | 5.9% |
Brandon Young
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs CIN
Score 32.6 | Lineup K 4.63
|
3.29 | 3.63 | +0.34 | 47.8% | 30.5% | 17.8% | 9.6% | 4.8% |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable | projected
|
COL vs SF
Score 31.1 | Lineup K 3.81
|
3.41 | 3.50 | +0.09 | 45.3% | 28.3% | 16.1% | 8.4% | 4.1% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.