Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs SEA
Score 65.4 | Lineup K 6.60
|
6.56 | 6.65 | +0.09 | 85.4% | 74.3% | 61.3% | 47.9% | 35.6% |
Gavin Williams
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs CWS
Score 52.6 | Lineup K 5.01
|
5.90 | 5.60 | -0.30 | 76.6% | 62.2% | 47.3% | 33.7% | 22.7% |
Luis Castillo
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs TOR
Score 56.7 | Lineup K 5.53
|
4.94 | 5.17 | +0.23 | 71.8% | 56.2% | 40.9% | 27.8% | 17.8% |
Spencer Arrighetti
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs TB
Score 51.9 | Lineup K 5.06
|
5.19 | 5.15 | -0.04 | 71.6% | 55.9% | 40.6% | 27.6% | 17.6% |
Michael King
Probable | projected
|
SD vs LAD
Score 52.3 | Lineup K 5.63
|
4.70 | 5.03 | +0.33 | 70.1% | 54.1% | 38.8% | 25.9% | 16.3% |
David Peterson
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs STL
Score 50.7 | Lineup K 5.47
|
4.74 | 5.00 | +0.26 | 69.7% | 53.6% | 38.3% | 25.5% | 16.0% |
Grant Holmes
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs NYM
Score 42.9 | Lineup K 5.38
|
4.82 | 4.99 | +0.17 | 69.6% | 53.5% | 38.1% | 25.4% | 15.9% |
Trevor Rogers
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs CIN
Score 48.8 | Lineup K 5.68
|
4.34 | 4.80 | +0.46 | 67.0% | 50.5% | 35.2% | 22.9% | 14.0% |
Brady Singer
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs BAL
Score 42.3 | Lineup K 5.52
|
4.28 | 4.68 | +0.40 | 65.3% | 48.6% | 33.4% | 21.3% | 12.8% |
Kyle Harrison
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs AZ
Score 31.8 | Lineup K 4.17
|
4.75 | 4.48 | -0.27 | 62.4% | 45.3% | 30.3% | 18.8% | 10.9% |
Mitch Keller
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs WSH
Score 46.9 | Lineup K 4.85
|
3.90 | 4.18 | +0.28 | 57.6% | 40.2% | 25.7% | 15.3% | 8.5% |
Ryan Feltner
Probable | projected
|
COL vs SF
Score 43.6 | Lineup K 4.57
|
3.80 | 4.05 | +0.25 | 55.4% | 37.9% | 23.8% | 13.8% | 7.5% |
Nick Martinez
Probable | projected
|
TB vs HOU
Score 34.1 | Lineup K 4.21
|
3.47 | 3.68 | +0.21 | 48.7% | 31.4% | 18.5% | 10.0% | 5.1% |
Andre Pallante
Probable | projected
|
STL vs CHC
Score 26.2 | Lineup K 4.22
|
2.89 | 3.18 | +0.29 | 38.9% | 22.8% | 12.1% | 5.9% | 2.7% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.