Mithrandir Metrics
Player WSH Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / WSH

Richard Lovelady

Player · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 0", 185 lb · Age 31

Cards
3
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club WSH Position -- Roster Injured 15-Day Status IL-15
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024364.46350234.1261.31
2025018.49100011.2121.54
2026243.86335430.1271.81
7 Seasons7175.0315157141.11291.45
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
20
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
30
Arsenal4 metrics
56
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.92
ERA current pace3.86
ERA rolling p503.90
Observed weight38%
ERA
1.93 2.86 3.90 4.93 5.86
FIP
3.07 3.78 4.57 5.36 6.07
K%
15.6% 17.8% 20.3% 22.8% 25.0%
BB%
7.9% 9.2% 10.6% 12.0% 13.3%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.81
3
ERA3.86
53
BB%14.0%
8 -39 vs proj
K%18.7%
24 -19 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.361
10 -42 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.3%
58 +18 vs proj
Fastball velo91.3
9
Hard-hit allowed35.4%
74
Whiff%20.5%
29
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-16
Slider Stuff+107
85
Fastball Stuff+103
50
Mithrandir Stuff+104
70
Sinker Stuff+97
17
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lovelady, Richard · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.361 2026-07-05: 0.3612026-07-06: 0.3612026-07-07: 0.3612026-07-08: 0.3612026-07-09: 0.3612026-07-10: 0.3612026-07-11: 0.3612026-07-12: 0.3612026-07-13: 0.3612026-07-14: 0.3612026-07-15: 0.3612026-07-16: 0.361 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 43%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lovelady, Richard · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lovelady, Richard · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 42.8%Sinker: 29.7%4-Seam Fastball: 21.6%Slider: 5.9% ST43% · 82 mphprimary pitch ST 43%SI 30%FF 22%SL 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lovelady, Richard · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sweeper: 43% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 81.8 mphST82 mphSinker: 30% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 91.2 mphSI91 mph4-Seam Fastball: 22% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 91.5 mphFF91 mphSlider: 6% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.7 mphSL87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 51.3% 219 107 qualified
SI 27.9% 119 97 limited sample
FB 20.8% 89 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

MLB bio context is unavailable.
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.10
K% Δ-0.028

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.3σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.407
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.361

Lovelady’s wOBA-against sits at 0.407, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.361 — a gap of 0.047, 1.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 31 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching32026-05-22Contact quality stayed muted throughout the start
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202621.5% K | 3.96 ERAProjection
2026-04-17 vs SF0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E0 H in 0 AB
2026-04-09 vs AZ0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E0 H in 0 AB
2026-04-03 @ SF0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E0 H in 0 AB
2026-03-31 @ STL0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E0 H in 0 AB
2026-03-29 vs PIT0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E0 H in 0 AB