Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tarik Skubal
Probable starter
|
DET vs ATH | 6.53 | 27.4% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 18.1 | 10 | 4 |
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable starter
|
MIL vs STL | 5.98 | 32.3% | 33.2% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 4 |
Paul Skenes
Probable starter
|
PIT vs ATL | 5.71 | 27.3% | 27.0% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Jacob deGrom
Probable starter
|
TEX vs LAA | 5.58 | 28.2% | 31.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
José Soriano
Probable starter
|
LAA vs TEX | 5.55 | 26.9% | 30.1% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 5 |
Taj Bradley
Probable starter
|
MIN vs CLE | 5.38 | 24.2% | 26.5% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 3 |
Shane Baz
Probable starter
|
BAL vs CHC | 5.03 | 23.0% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 3 |
Ian Seymour
Probable starter
|
TB vs NYY | 5.00 | 25.0% | 27.9% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 0 |
Joey Cantillo
Probable starter
|
CLE vs MIN | 4.97 | 26.4% | 29.3% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 3 |
Max Meyer
Probable starter
|
MIA vs SEA | 4.96 | 23.7% | 24.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 5 |
Matthew Boyd
Probable starter
|
CHC vs BAL | 4.94 | 28.0% | 26.6% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 2 |
Trevor McDonald
Probable starter
|
SF vs TOR | 4.83 | 22.9% | 24.3% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 0 |
Will Warren
Probable starter
|
NYY vs TB | 4.74 | 24.9% | 25.7% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 3 |
Seth Lugo
Probable starter
|
KC vs NYM | 4.73 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 5 |
Tatsuya Imai
Probable starter
|
HOU vs WSH | 4.24 | 25.0% | 28.3% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 2 |
Noah Schultz
Probable starter
|
CWS vs BOS | 4.21 | 21.6% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 1 |
Hurston Waldrep
Probable starter
|
ATL vs PIT | 4.20 | 22.4% | 25.2% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 0 |
J.t. Ginn
Probable starter
|
ATH vs DET | 4.14 | 22.1% | 20.9% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 2 |
Andrew Alvarez
Probable starter
|
WSH vs HOU | 4.02 | 21.3% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Andrew Abbott
Probable starter
|
CIN vs PHI | 4.01 | 17.5% | 15.2% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Zac Gallen
Probable starter
|
AZ vs SD | 3.85 | 18.5% | 15.3% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 4 |
Justin Wrobleski
Probable starter
|
LAD vs COL | 3.78 | 16.1% | 14.1% | 22.4% | 16.9 | 10 | 3 |
Michael Lorenzen
Probable starter
|
COL vs LAD | 3.75 | 18.0% | 18.7% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 3 |
Payton Tolle
Probable starter
|
BOS vs CWS | 3.67 | 22.8% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Germán Márquez
Probable starter
|
SD vs AZ | 3.42 | 17.2% | 15.8% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 3 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.