Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease
Probable starter
|
TOR vs SF | 6.56 | 31.5% | 33.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Chase Burns
Probable starter
|
CIN vs PHI | 6.24 | 31.8% | 36.8% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 2 |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable starter
|
TEX vs LAA | 6.15 | 29.6% | 31.7% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 4 |
Logan Webb
Probable starter
|
SF vs TOR | 5.69 | 22.2% | 21.2% | 22.4% | 17.8 | 10 | 5 |
George Kirby
Probable starter
|
SEA vs MIA | 5.25 | 23.0% | 25.2% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Michael King
Probable starter
|
SD vs AZ | 5.08 | 23.2% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Dean Kremer
Probable starter
|
BAL vs CHC | 4.81 | 23.9% | 22.9% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 1 |
Spencer Arrighetti
Probable starter
|
HOU vs WSH | 4.81 | 23.1% | 22.7% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 2 |
Kyle Harrison
Probable starter
|
MIL vs STL | 4.75 | 26.1% | 29.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 4 |
Connor Prielipp
Probable starter
|
MIN vs CLE | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Jared Jones
Probable starter
|
PIT vs ATL | 4.61 | 21.9% | 24.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Gerrit Cole
Probable starter
|
NYY vs TB | 4.45 | 21.9% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Grant Holmes
Probable starter
|
ATL vs PIT | 4.44 | 22.1% | 19.3% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
Troy Melton
Probable starter
|
DET vs ATH | 4.40 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Davis Martin
Probable starter
|
CWS vs BOS | 4.36 | 20.7% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 3 |
Christian Scott
Probable starter
|
NYM vs KC | 4.31 | 21.9% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable starter
|
ATH vs DET | 4.30 | 22.6% | 22.1% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 3 |
Gabriel Hughes
Probable starter
|
COL vs LAD | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Jake Bennett
Probable starter
|
BOS vs CWS | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Jose Cabrera
Probable starter
|
AZ vs SD | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Steven Cruz
Probable starter
|
KC vs NYM | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Walbert Ureña
Probable starter
|
LAA vs TEX | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Shane McClanahan
Probable starter
|
TB vs NYY | 4.16 | 21.9% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 3 |
Foster Griffin
Probable starter
|
WSH vs HOU | 4.15 | 20.9% | 20.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Colin Rea
Probable starter
|
CHC vs BAL | 3.90 | 18.5% | 23.6% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 2 |
Roki Sasaki
Probable starter
|
LAD vs COL | 3.80 | 20.5% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 3 |
Slade Cecconi
Probable starter
|
CLE vs MIN | 3.80 | 19.6% | 18.8% | 22.4% | 16.0 | 10 | 4 |
Tyler Phillips
Probable starter
|
MIA vs SEA | 3.50 | 21.3% | 17.6% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 0 |
Michael McGreevy
Probable starter
|
STL vs MIL | 2.96 | 14.0% | 11.8% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.