Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Joe Ryan
Probable starter
|
MIN vs MIL | 5.79 | 26.5% | 26.3% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 5 |
Cam Schlittler
Probable starter
|
NYY vs NYM | 5.53 | 29.7% | 32.2% | 22.4% | 16.0 | 10 | 5 |
Spencer Strider
Probable starter
|
ATL vs BOS | 5.21 | 23.6% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 0 |
Spencer Arrighetti
Probable starter
|
HOU vs TEX | 5.19 | 23.1% | 22.7% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 2 |
Aaron Nola
Probable starter
|
PHI vs PIT | 5.08 | 23.6% | 25.2% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 4 |
Ian Seymour
Probable starter
|
TB vs MIA | 4.99 | 25.0% | 27.9% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 0 |
Braxton Ashcraft
Probable starter
|
PIT vs PHI | 4.98 | 26.1% | 26.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 3 |
Jack Leiter
Probable starter
|
TEX vs HOU | 4.91 | 25.8% | 28.4% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 3 |
Tanner Bibee
Probable starter
|
CLE vs CIN | 4.85 | 22.1% | 21.8% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Connelly Early
Probable starter
|
BOS vs ATL | 4.75 | 25.9% | 26.1% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 3 |
Edward Cabrera
Probable starter
|
CHC vs CWS | 4.68 | 22.2% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 4 |
Shane Baz
Probable starter
|
BAL vs WSH | 4.39 | 22.4% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 2 |
Michael Wacha
Probable starter
|
KC vs STL | 4.28 | 19.7% | 20.0% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 3 |
Will Klein
Probable starter
|
LAD vs LAA | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Emerson Hancock
Probable starter
|
SEA vs SD | 4.26 | 21.9% | 26.6% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 4 |
Dustin May
Probable starter
|
STL vs KC | 4.19 | 20.4% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 3 |
Aaron Civale
Probable starter
|
ATH vs SF | 4.17 | 19.4% | 18.8% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 4 |
Trey Yesavage
Probable starter
|
TOR vs DET | 4.12 | 23.1% | 24.5% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Kyle Freeland
Probable starter
|
COL vs AZ | 4.11 | 18.7% | 20.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 3 |
Zack Littell
Probable starter
|
WSH vs BAL | 4.08 | 19.3% | 19.1% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 3 |
Merrill Kelly
Probable starter
|
AZ vs COL | 4.07 | 20.4% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 16.8 | 10 | 1 |
Clay Holmes
Probable starter
|
NYM vs NYY | 4.06 | 18.8% | 16.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 3 |
Coleman Crow
Probable starter
|
MIL vs MIN | 3.89 | 21.5% | 20.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 1 |
Sean Burke
Probable starter
|
CWS vs CHC | 3.88 | 18.8% | 18.1% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 2 |
Tyler Mahle
Probable starter
|
SF vs ATH | 3.88 | 21.1% | 22.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 3 |
Andrew Abbott
Probable starter
|
CIN vs CLE | 3.70 | 17.9% | 16.0% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 4 |
Brenan Hanifee
Probable starter
|
DET vs TOR | 3.63 | 21.9% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Jack Kochanowicz
Probable starter
|
LAA vs LAD | 3.53 | 18.0% | 16.0% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 3 |
Randy Vásquez
Probable starter
|
SD vs SEA | 3.30 | 19.1% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 3 |
Janson Junk
Probable starter
|
MIA vs TB | 3.20 | 17.0% | 17.1% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 4 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.