Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Sale
Probable starter
|
ATL vs CHC | 6.30 | 27.6% | 26.1% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 10 | 4 |
Chase Burns
Probable starter
|
CIN vs WSH | 6.23 | 31.8% | 36.8% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 2 |
Jesús Luzardo
Probable starter
|
PHI vs BOS | 5.92 | 26.9% | 28.8% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 10 | 3 |
Nolan McLean
Probable starter
|
NYM vs DET | 5.88 | 28.7% | 32.5% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 10 | 4 |
Emmet Sheehan
Probable starter
|
LAD vs SF | 5.07 | 25.5% | 27.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 3 |
Ben Brown
Probable starter
|
CHC vs ATL | 4.75 | 23.6% | 21.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 0 |
Mike Burrows
Probable starter
|
HOU vs SEA | 4.74 | 21.1% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 4 |
Kris Bubic
Probable starter
|
KC vs CWS | 4.62 | 24.7% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 16.8 | 10 | 2 |
Ranger Suarez
Probable starter
|
BOS vs PHI | 4.62 | 20.6% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Kyle Harrison
Probable starter
|
MIL vs SD | 4.61 | 23.4% | 24.5% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 3 |
Jacob Lopez
Probable starter
|
ATH vs STL | 4.58 | 21.8% | 20.4% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 3 |
Luis Castillo
Probable starter
|
SEA vs HOU | 4.56 | 22.5% | 24.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 3 |
Anthony Kay
Probable starter
|
CWS vs KC | 4.52 | 22.6% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 2 |
Landen Roupp
Probable starter
|
SF vs LAD | 4.25 | 24.1% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 2 |
Carmen Mlodzinski
Probable starter
|
PIT vs COL | 3.84 | 22.6% | 25.0% | 22.4% | 13.7 | 10 | 2 |
Foster Griffin
Probable starter
|
WSH vs CIN | 3.76 | 20.9% | 20.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Griffin Canning
Probable starter
|
SD vs MIL | 3.69 | 20.5% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 0 |
Chase Dollander
Probable starter
|
COL vs PIT | 3.49 | 19.4% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 14.5 | 10 | 0 |
Keider Montero
Probable starter
|
DET vs NYM | 3.10 | 19.5% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 1 |
Michael McGreevy
Probable starter
|
STL vs ATH | 2.67 | 15.3% | 13.7% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 4 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.