Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jesús Luzardo
Probable starter
|
PHI vs AZ | 6.91 | 28.9% | 32.3% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 6 | 2 |
Chase Burns
Probable starter
|
CIN vs LAA | 6.57 | 31.8% | 36.8% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 5 | 2 |
Tyler Glasnow
Probable starter
|
LAD vs TEX | 6.51 | 29.3% | 30.0% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 6 | 1 |
Kris Bubic
Probable starter
|
KC vs CWS | 5.33 | 24.7% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 16.8 | 5 | 2 |
Bryce Elder
Probable starter
|
ATL vs CLE | 5.23 | 22.3% | 25.0% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 6 | 2 |
Shota Imanaga
Probable starter
|
CHC vs PIT | 5.08 | 23.2% | 24.1% | 22.4% | 16.5 | 5 | 2 |
Connelly Early
Probable starter
|
BOS vs STL | 5.07 | 26.5% | 27.9% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 6 | 2 |
Shane Baz
Probable starter
|
BAL vs SF | 5.04 | 22.4% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 6 | 2 |
Chad Patrick
Probable starter
|
MIL vs WSH | 4.70 | 22.7% | 25.9% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 6 | 1 |
Steven Matz
Probable starter
|
TB vs NYY | 4.67 | 22.8% | 26.9% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 6 | 2 |
Dustin May
Probable starter
|
STL vs BOS | 4.58 | 20.5% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 6 | 2 |
Slade Cecconi
Probable starter
|
CLE vs ATL | 4.52 | 21.6% | 23.2% | 22.4% | 16.5 | 5 | 2 |
Landen Roupp
Probable starter
|
SF vs BAL | 4.51 | 24.1% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 6 | 2 |
Emerson Hancock
Probable starter
|
SEA vs HOU | 4.50 | 22.1% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 6 | 2 |
Tatsuya Imai
Probable starter
|
HOU vs SEA | 4.50 | 25.0% | 28.3% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 6 | 2 |
Michael Soroka
Probable starter
|
AZ vs PHI | 4.49 | 24.6% | 27.1% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 6 | 2 |
Simeon Woods Richardson
Probable starter
|
MIN vs TOR | 4.38 | 19.8% | 24.6% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 2 |
Davis Martin
Probable starter
|
CWS vs KC | 4.29 | 21.3% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 5 | 2 |
Clay Holmes
Probable starter
|
NYM vs ATH | 4.26 | 18.8% | 17.3% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 6 | 2 |
Jake Irvin
Probable starter
|
WSH vs MIL | 4.23 | 20.1% | 22.1% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 6 | 2 |
J.t. Ginn
Probable starter
|
ATH vs NYM | 4.21 | 22.7% | 22.7% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 0 |
Patrick Corbin
Probable starter
|
TOR vs MIN | 4.08 | 19.9% | 21.0% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 0 |
Luis Gil
Probable starter
|
NYY vs TB | 4.05 | 20.8% | 14.1% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Kumar Rocker
Probable starter
|
TEX vs LAD | 3.86 | 19.8% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 6 | 1 |
Walker Buehler
Probable starter
|
SD vs COL | 3.80 | 18.8% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 5 | 2 |
Keider Montero
Probable starter
|
DET vs MIA | 3.78 | 19.5% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 5 | 1 |
Carmen Mlodzinski
Probable starter
|
PIT vs CHC | 3.70 | 22.7% | 25.0% | 22.4% | 13.7 | 6 | 2 |
Chris Paddack
Probable starter
|
MIA vs DET | 3.53 | 20.1% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 1 |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable starter
|
COL vs SD | 3.47 | 18.1% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 5 | 2 |
Jack Kochanowicz
Probable starter
|
LAA vs CIN | 3.15 | 17.4% | 13.6% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 6 | 2 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.