Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tarik Skubal
Probable starter
|
DET vs MIA | 6.81 | 27.2% | 27.4% | 22.4% | 18.0 | 5 | 3 |
Chris Sale
Probable starter
|
ATL vs CLE | 6.75 | 28.2% | 27.9% | 22.4% | 16.9 | 6 | 3 |
Logan Gilbert
Probable starter
|
SEA vs HOU | 6.59 | 28.2% | 25.9% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 6 | 3 |
Nick Pivetta
Probable starter
|
SD vs COL | 6.22 | 28.9% | 28.7% | 22.4% | 16.0 | 5 | 3 |
Freddy Peralta
Probable starter
|
NYM vs ATH | 6.21 | 27.9% | 29.1% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 5 | 3 |
Brandon Woodruff
Probable starter
|
MIL vs WSH | 5.80 | 26.6% | 27.1% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 6 | 2 |
Cam Schlittler
Probable starter
|
NYY vs TB | 5.80 | 29.7% | 33.0% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 5 | 3 |
Jacob deGrom
Probable starter
|
TEX vs LAD | 5.49 | 28.0% | 28.2% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 6 | 2 |
Taj Bradley
Probable starter
|
MIN vs TOR | 5.23 | 23.4% | 25.1% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 5 | 2 |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable starter
|
MIA vs DET | 5.04 | 20.1% | 20.4% | 22.4% | 18.7 | 5 | 3 |
José Soriano
Probable starter
|
LAA vs CIN | 4.93 | 24.3% | 24.4% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 6 | 3 |
Tanner Bibee
Probable starter
|
CLE vs ATL | 4.88 | 23.1% | 24.6% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 6 | 3 |
Noah Cameron
Probable starter
|
KC vs CWS | 4.83 | 21.3% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 5 | 2 |
Andrew Abbott
Probable starter
|
CIN vs LAA | 4.70 | 19.0% | 16.7% | 22.4% | 16.8 | 5 | 3 |
Cade Povich
Probable starter
|
BAL vs SF | 4.70 | 22.1% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Bubba Chandler
Probable starter
|
PIT vs CHC | 4.65 | 24.4% | 27.6% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 6 | 2 |
Andrew Painter
Probable starter
|
PHI vs AZ | 4.52 | 21.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 6 | 2 |
Zac Gallen
Probable starter
|
AZ vs PHI | 4.49 | 19.6% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 16.5 | 5 | 3 |
Jameson Taillon
Probable starter
|
CHC vs PIT | 4.32 | 18.4% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 6 | 2 |
Aaron Civale
Probable starter
|
ATH vs NYM | 4.24 | 20.7% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 5 | 2 |
Zack Littell
Probable starter
|
WSH vs MIL | 4.20 | 20.3% | 19.4% | 22.4% | 16.8 | 6 | 1 |
Max Scherzer
Probable starter
|
TOR vs MIN | 4.12 | 21.9% | 21.2% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 6 | 2 |
Kyle Freeland
Probable starter
|
COL vs SD | 4.04 | 18.8% | 20.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 5 | 3 |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable starter
|
TB vs NYY | 3.97 | 22.6% | 22.6% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 2 |
Brayan Bello
Probable starter
|
BOS vs STL | 3.91 | 18.4% | 16.6% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 6 | 2 |
Roki Sasaki
Probable starter
|
LAD vs TEX | 3.84 | 19.5% | 16.9% | 22.4% | 14.2 | 7 | 2 |
Adrian Houser
Probable starter
|
SF vs BAL | 3.81 | 16.8% | 14.0% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 6 | 2 |
Andre Pallante
Probable starter
|
STL vs BOS | 3.57 | 16.1% | 13.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 6 | 2 |
Grant Taylor
Probable starter
|
CWS vs KC | 2.24 | 23.1% | 25.0% | 22.4% | 10.6 | 6 | 3 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.