Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-04-18 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-04-18

22 matched props 2 unmatched

Newer: 2026-04-19 Older: 2026-04-16

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 22

Grouped Pitchers 22

Books 1

Unmatched Inputs 2

Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay

2026-06-02 2026-06-01 2026-05-31 2026-05-30 2026-05-29 2026-05-28 2026-05-26 2026-05-25

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-04-18 | Raw sportsbook rows: 22 | Grouped pitcher entries: 22 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-04-18/strikeout_edges_2026-04-18.json

Gavin Williams

CLE vs BAL | 1 books

Strong

Adj K 6.02

Strongest Gap Under +12.87%

Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

6.5

O -146 / U +110

Over gap -19.84% / Under gap +12.87%

Under +12.87%

Model O 39.5% | U 60.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 45.1

Chris Sale

ATL vs PHI | 1 books

Strong

Adj K 6.55

Strongest Gap Under +10.71%

Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

7.5

O -108 / U -122

Over gap -17.58% / Under gap +10.71%

Under +10.71%

Model O 34.3% | U 65.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 79.4

Tarik Skubal

DET vs BOS | 1 books

Strong

Adj K 6.85

Strongest Gap Under +9.98%

Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

7.5

O -122 / U -108

Over gap -16.85% / Under gap +9.98%

Under +9.98%

Model O 38.1% | U 61.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 80.5

Brandon Woodruff

MIL vs MIA | 1 books

Strong

Adj K 6.03

Strongest Gap Over +7.04%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O +116 / U -154

Over gap +7.04% / Under gap -13.97%

Over +7.04%

Model O 53.3% | U 46.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 82.6

Drew Rasmussen

TB vs PIT | 1 books

Strong

Adj K 4.23

Strongest Gap Under +6.14%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -118 / U -112

Over gap -13.10% / Under gap +6.14%

Under +6.14%

Model O 41.0% | U 59.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.3

Luis Severino

ATH vs CWS | 1 books

Play

Adj K 4.91

Strongest Gap Under +3.73%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O +110 / U -146

Over gap -10.70% / Under gap +3.73%

Under +3.73%

Model O 36.9% | U 63.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 43.2

Noah Cameron

KC vs NYY | 1 books

Play

Adj K 4.55

Strongest Gap Under +3.57%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -132 / U +100

Over gap -10.47% / Under gap +3.57%

Under +3.57%

Model O 46.4% | U 53.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 37.0

Nathan Eovaldi

TEX vs SEA | 1 books

Play

Adj K 5.69

Strongest Gap Under +3.34%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O -144 / U +108

Over gap -10.44% / Under gap +3.34%

Under +3.34%

Model O 48.6% | U 51.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 50.5

George Kirby

SEA vs TEX | 1 books

Play

Adj K 5.86

Strongest Gap Under +3.14%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O -158 / U +118

Over gap -10.25% / Under gap +3.14%

Under +3.14%

Model O 51.0% | U 49.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 59.7

Paul Skenes

PIT vs TB | 1 books

Lean

Adj K 6.08

Strongest Gap Under +2.04%

Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

6.5

O +102 / U -136

Over gap -9.17% / Under gap +2.04%

Under +2.04%

Model O 40.3% | U 59.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 75.8

Dean Kremer

BAL vs CLE | 1 books

No Play

Adj K 4.77

Strongest Gap No Play +1.47%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O +106 / U -140

Over gap +1.47% / Under gap -8.34%

No Play

Model O 50.0% | U 50.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.5

Adrian Houser

SF vs WSH | 1 books

No Play

Adj K 3.80

Strongest Gap No Play +1.43%

Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

3.5

O +102 / U -136

Over gap +1.43% / Under gap -8.56%

No Play

Model O 50.9% | U 49.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 34.0

Taj Bradley

MIN vs CIN | 1 books

No Play

Adj K 5.87

Strongest Gap No Play +1.31%

Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

6.5

O +118 / U -158

Over gap -8.42% / Under gap +1.31%

No Play

Model O 37.5% | U 62.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 61.5

Andrew Abbott

CIN vs MIN | 1 books

No Play

Adj K 4.35

Strongest Gap No Play +0.40%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -102 / U -130

Over gap -7.42% / Under gap +0.40%

No Play

Model O 43.1% | U 56.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 47.2

Erick Fedde

CWS vs ATH | 1 books

No Play

Adj K 3.85

Strongest Gap No Play -0.38%

Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

3.5

O -140 / U +106

Over gap -6.49% / Under gap -0.38%

No Play

Model O 51.8% | U 48.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 40.7

Brayan Bello

BOS vs DET | 1 books

No Play

Adj K 4.55

Strongest Gap No Play -0.56%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -112 / U -118

Over gap -6.40% / Under gap -0.56%

No Play

Model O 46.4% | U 53.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 39.5

Andre Pallante

STL vs HOU | 1 books

No Play

Adj K 3.48

Strongest Gap No Play -0.58%

Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

3.5

O +120 / U -160

Over gap -0.58% / Under gap -6.41%

No Play

Model O 44.9% | U 55.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 27.1

Jameson Taillon

CHC vs NYM | 1 books

No Play

Adj K 4.72

Strongest Gap No Play -0.67%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -125 / U -106

Over gap -6.35% / Under gap -0.67%

No Play

Model O 49.2% | U 50.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 30.8

Freddy Peralta

NYM vs CHC | 1 books

No Play

Adj K 5.92

Strongest Gap No Play -0.85%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O -138 / U +104

Over gap -6.15% / Under gap -0.85%

No Play

Model O 51.8% | U 48.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 66.2

Sandy Alcantara

MIA vs MIL | 1 books

No Play

Adj K 5.18

Strongest Gap No Play -1.66%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -138 / U +104

Over gap -1.66% / Under gap -5.34%

No Play

Model O 56.3% | U 43.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 39.6

Will Warren

NYY vs KC | 1 books

No Play

Adj K 5.16

Strongest Gap No Play -3.33%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -146 / U +110

Over gap -3.33% / Under gap -3.64%

No Play

Model O 56.0% | U 44.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 40.6

Cade Cavalli

WSH vs SF | 1 books

No Play

Adj K 3.98

Strongest Gap No Play -3.47%

Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

3.5

O -136 / U +102

Over gap -3.47% / Under gap -3.66%

No Play

Model O 54.2% | U 45.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 40.4

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.