{ "date": "2026-04-18", "generated_at": "2026-04-18T11:06:44.749212", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "projection_date": "2026-04-18", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 24, "matched_count": 22, "unmatched_count": 2 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 22, "grouped_pitcher_count": 22, "sportsbook_count": 1 }, "edge_count": 22, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "pitcher_id": 668909, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -146, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 6.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.21, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.02, "skill_score": 70.9, "opportunity_score": 47.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 40.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3951, "model_under_probability": 0.6049, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5548, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4452, "edge_over": -0.1984, "edge_under": 0.1287, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1287, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.96, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 43.5, "wind_speed_mph": 16.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "pitcher_id": 519242, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -108, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 6.55, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.17, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.55, "skill_score": 47.5, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 53.0, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 43.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3434, "model_under_probability": 0.6566, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4858, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5142, "edge_over": -0.1758, "edge_under": 0.1071, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1071, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25945.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.82, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 53.4, "wind_speed_mph": 8.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "pitcher_id": 669373, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -122, "under_odds": -108, "expected_strikeouts": 6.85, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.85, "skill_score": 50.9, "opportunity_score": 59.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 53.4, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 30.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.381, "model_under_probability": 0.619, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5142, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4858, "edge_over": -0.1685, "edge_under": 0.0998, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0998, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.46, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 80.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29251.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.05, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 43.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Woodruff", "pitcher_id": 605540, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 116, "under_odds": -154, "expected_strikeouts": 6.03, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.5, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.03, "skill_score": 36.2, "opportunity_score": 38.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 57.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 72.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5334, "model_under_probability": 0.4666, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.433, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.567, "edge_over": 0.0704, "edge_under": -0.1397, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0704, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.53, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.097, "aggregate_matchup_score": 82.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7949.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.58, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -118, "under_odds": -112, "expected_strikeouts": 4.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.15, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.23, "skill_score": 40.7, "opportunity_score": 15.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4103, "model_under_probability": 0.5897, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5413, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5283, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5061, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4939, "edge_over": -0.131, "edge_under": 0.0614, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0614, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.37, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Luis Severino", "pitcher_id": 622663, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -146, "expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.15, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.91, "skill_score": 29.3, "opportunity_score": 46.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 43.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3692, "model_under_probability": 0.6308, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4452, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5548, "edge_over": -0.107, "edge_under": 0.0373, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0373, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.954, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29975.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.55, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "pitcher_id": 702070, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -132, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 4.55, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.55, "skill_score": 23.0, "opportunity_score": 46.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 53.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4643, "model_under_probability": 0.5357, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5323, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4677, "edge_over": -0.1047, "edge_under": 0.0357, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0357, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.071, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.25, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 63.7, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "pitcher_id": 543135, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -144, "under_odds": 108, "expected_strikeouts": 5.69, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "skill_score": 67.5, "opportunity_score": 58.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 31.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4858, "model_under_probability": 0.5142, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5511, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4489, "edge_over": -0.1044, "edge_under": 0.0334, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0334, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26779.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.67, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 52.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "pitcher_id": 669923, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -158, "under_odds": 118, "expected_strikeouts": 5.86, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.86, "skill_score": 25.5, "opportunity_score": 66.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 17.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5099, "model_under_probability": 0.4901, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5717, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4283, "edge_over": -0.1025, "edge_under": 0.0314, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0314, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.988, "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 52.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 102, "under_odds": -136, "expected_strikeouts": 6.08, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.08, "skill_score": 45.9, "opportunity_score": 9.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 100.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4033, "model_under_probability": 0.5967, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4621, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5379, "edge_over": -0.0917, "edge_under": 0.0204, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0204, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 75.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.87, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dean Kremer", "pitcher_id": 665152, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 106, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 4.77, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.77, "skill_score": 53.3, "opportunity_score": 20.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 94.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5001, "model_under_probability": 0.4999, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4542, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5458, "edge_over": 0.0147, "edge_under": -0.0834, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0147, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.995, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30294.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.65, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 43.5, "wind_speed_mph": 16.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Adrian Houser", "pitcher_id": 605288, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 102, "under_odds": -136, "expected_strikeouts": 3.8, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "skill_score": 3.9, "opportunity_score": 59.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5093, "model_under_probability": 0.4907, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4621, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5379, "edge_over": 0.0143, "edge_under": -0.0856, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0143, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.036, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17064.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.19, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.5, "wind_speed_mph": 11.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 118, "under_odds": -158, "expected_strikeouts": 5.87, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.63, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.87, "skill_score": 53.2, "opportunity_score": 59.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.4, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 31.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3745, "model_under_probability": 0.6255, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4283, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5717, "edge_over": -0.0842, "edge_under": 0.0131, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0131, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.033, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 43.7, "wind_speed_mph": 16.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "pitcher_id": 671096, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -102, "under_odds": -130, "expected_strikeouts": 4.35, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.35, "skill_score": 13.4, "opportunity_score": 39.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 59.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4308, "model_under_probability": 0.5692, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4719, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5281, "edge_over": -0.0742, "edge_under": 0.004, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.004, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.088, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.98, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 43.7, "wind_speed_mph": 16.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Erick Fedde", "pitcher_id": 607200, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 106, "expected_strikeouts": 3.85, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.46, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "skill_score": 12.1, "opportunity_score": 40.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 66.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5184, "model_under_probability": 0.4816, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5458, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4542, "edge_over": -0.0649, "edge_under": -0.0038, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0038, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.112, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21694.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brayan Bello", "pitcher_id": 678394, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -112, "under_odds": -118, "expected_strikeouts": 4.55, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.16, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.55, "skill_score": 31.8, "opportunity_score": 43.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.7, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 57.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4643, "model_under_probability": 0.5357, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5283, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5413, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4939, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5061, "edge_over": -0.064, "edge_under": -0.0056, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0056, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31869.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.25, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 43.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "pitcher_id": 669467, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 120, "under_odds": -160, "expected_strikeouts": 3.48, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.14, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "skill_score": 12.4, "opportunity_score": 40.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 63.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4487, "model_under_probability": 0.5513, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4248, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5752, "edge_over": -0.0058, "edge_under": -0.0641, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0058, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.098, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.2, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 60.8, "wind_speed_mph": 12.4, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jameson Taillon", "pitcher_id": 592791, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -106, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.89, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 43.7, "opportunity_score": 56.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4921, "model_under_probability": 0.5079, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5192, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4808, "edge_over": -0.0635, "edge_under": -0.0067, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0067, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.955, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27267.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 40.8, "wind_speed_mph": 15.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -138, "under_odds": 104, "expected_strikeouts": 5.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.78, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "skill_score": 60.5, "opportunity_score": 35.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 86.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5183, "model_under_probability": 0.4817, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5419, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4581, "edge_over": -0.0615, "edge_under": -0.0085, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0085, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.81, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 40.8, "wind_speed_mph": 15.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "pitcher_id": 645261, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -138, "under_odds": 104, "expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.33, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.18, "skill_score": 24.0, "opportunity_score": 85.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 12.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5632, "model_under_probability": 0.4368, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5419, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4581, "edge_over": -0.0166, "edge_under": -0.0534, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0166, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.971, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 22618.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.02, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "pitcher_id": 701542, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -146, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.16, "skill_score": 35.3, "opportunity_score": 26.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 74.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5602, "model_under_probability": 0.4398, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5548, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4452, "edge_over": -0.0333, "edge_under": -0.0364, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0333, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.952, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.79, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 63.7, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -136, "under_odds": 102, "expected_strikeouts": 3.98, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.73, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "skill_score": 15.8, "opportunity_score": 8.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 96.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5416, "model_under_probability": 0.4584, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5379, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4621, "edge_over": -0.0347, "edge_under": -0.0366, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0347, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.067, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.53, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.5, "wind_speed_mph": 11.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher Sanchez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Lance McCullers", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }