{ "schema": "mithrandir.strikeout_props", "schema_version": 2, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "date": "2026-09-23", "captured_at": "2026-09-24T03:45:42.401881+00:00", "generated_at": "2026-09-23T23:45:42.402097", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 16, "skipped_start_count": 16, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-09-23", "game_pk": 824868, "pitcher_id": 519242, "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 65.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.95, "skill_score": 62.1, "opportunity_score": 81.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 55.3, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 17.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.54, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.95, "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.062, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8728, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.7713, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.6482, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.5177, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.3935, "prob_4_plus": 0.8728, "prob_5_plus": 0.7713, "prob_6_plus": 0.6482, "prob_7_plus": 0.5177, "prob_8_plus": 0.3935, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 85.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.16, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25945.0, "temperature_f": 65.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.947, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Will Benson", "matchup_score": 93.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 167.1, "expected_contact_quality": 86.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 93.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 148.6, "expected_contact_quality": 72.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 92.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 147.6, "expected_contact_quality": 66.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-24T03:45:42.401881+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-23", "game_pk": 824625, "pitcher_id": 592332, "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 58.6, "wind_speed_mph": 11.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.91, "skill_score": 54.8, "opportunity_score": 61.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 32.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.94, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.91, "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.995, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7962, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6619, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5169, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.38, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2639, "prob_4_plus": 0.7962, "prob_5_plus": 0.6619, "prob_6_plus": 0.5169, "prob_7_plus": 0.38, "prob_8_plus": 0.2639, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.72, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "temperature_f": 58.6, "wind_speed_mph": 11.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.006, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 79.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.0, "expected_contact_quality": 75.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 77.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.3, "expected_contact_quality": 61.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "matchup_score": 70.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.7, "expected_contact_quality": 107.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-24T03:45:42.401881+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-23", "game_pk": 823894, "pitcher_id": 808967, "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.5, "wind_speed_mph": 1.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.88, "skill_score": 71.5, "opportunity_score": 57.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.7, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 49.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.89, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.88, "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.998, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7934, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6582, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5127, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3759, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2603, "prob_4_plus": 0.7934, "prob_5_plus": 0.6582, "prob_6_plus": 0.5127, "prob_7_plus": 0.3759, "prob_8_plus": 0.2603, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.63, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "temperature_f": 67.5, "wind_speed_mph": 1.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.96, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "matchup_score": 85.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.7, "expected_contact_quality": 70.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 80.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "matchup_score": 73.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.6, "expected_contact_quality": 83.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-24T03:45:42.401881+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-23", "game_pk": 823086, "pitcher_id": 669923, "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 51.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.59, "skill_score": 18.4, "opportunity_score": 59.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 37.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.66, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.59, "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.988, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7651, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6209, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4714, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3359, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2256, "prob_4_plus": 0.7651, "prob_5_plus": 0.6209, "prob_6_plus": 0.4714, "prob_7_plus": 0.3359, "prob_8_plus": 0.2256, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.33, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "temperature_f": 51.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.89, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 81.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "matchup_score": 67.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.6, "expected_contact_quality": 93.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 66.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.1, "expected_contact_quality": 63.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-24T03:45:42.401881+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-23", "game_pk": 824223, "pitcher_id": 664285, "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.6, "wind_speed_mph": 13.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 5.46, "skill_score": 9.9, "opportunity_score": 66.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 31.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.98, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.46, "adjustment_delta": 0.48, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.086, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7514, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6032, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4523, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3179, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2105, "prob_4_plus": 0.7514, "prob_5_plus": 0.6032, "prob_6_plus": 0.4523, "prob_7_plus": 0.3179, "prob_8_plus": 0.2105, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.09, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "temperature_f": 64.6, "wind_speed_mph": 13.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.881, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Tena", "matchup_score": 71.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.8, "expected_contact_quality": 74.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Robert Hassell III", "matchup_score": 67.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.5, "expected_contact_quality": 101.1 }, { "hitter_name": "James Wood", "matchup_score": 62.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 144.4, "expected_contact_quality": 123.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-24T03:45:42.401881+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-23", "game_pk": 823410, "pitcher_id": 605400, "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 60.1, "wind_speed_mph": 12.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 5.43, "skill_score": 36.4, "opportunity_score": 68.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 33.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.32, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.43, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.011, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7481, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.599, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4479, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3138, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2071, "prob_4_plus": 0.7481, "prob_5_plus": 0.599, "prob_6_plus": 0.4479, "prob_7_plus": 0.3138, "prob_8_plus": 0.2071, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "temperature_f": 60.1, "wind_speed_mph": 12.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.972, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "matchup_score": 62.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.6, "expected_contact_quality": 91.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "matchup_score": 58.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.2, "expected_contact_quality": 101.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Rengifo", "matchup_score": 56.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.5, "expected_contact_quality": 66.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-24T03:45:42.401881+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-23", "game_pk": 824710, "pitcher_id": 543243, "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "team_id": 111, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 49.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 5.37, "skill_score": 31.5, "opportunity_score": 64.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 37.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.37, "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.078, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7414, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5906, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.439, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3056, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2002, "prob_4_plus": 0.7414, "prob_5_plus": 0.5906, "prob_6_plus": 0.439, "prob_7_plus": 0.3056, "prob_8_plus": 0.2002, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.79, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "temperature_f": 49.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.971, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 90.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 174.8, "expected_contact_quality": 88.7 }, { "hitter_name": "David Fry", "matchup_score": 86.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.4, "expected_contact_quality": 78.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "matchup_score": 83.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.2, "expected_contact_quality": 69.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-24T03:45:42.401881+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-23", "game_pk": 823894, "pitcher_id": 592662, "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.5, "wind_speed_mph": 1.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.26, "skill_score": 16.8, "opportunity_score": 40.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 71.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.21, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.26, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.009, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7288, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5749, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4225, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2905, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1879, "prob_4_plus": 0.7288, "prob_5_plus": 0.5749, "prob_6_plus": 0.4225, "prob_7_plus": 0.2905, "prob_8_plus": 0.1879, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.46, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "temperature_f": 67.5, "wind_speed_mph": 1.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.96, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 59.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.2, "expected_contact_quality": 73.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 50.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.0, "expected_contact_quality": 133.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "matchup_score": 49.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.7, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-24T03:45:42.401881+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-23", "game_pk": 824060, "pitcher_id": 607625, "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "skill_score": 13.4, "opportunity_score": 56.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 43.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.14, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.05, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.982, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7033, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5438, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3906, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.262, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1651, "prob_4_plus": 0.7033, "prob_5_plus": 0.5438, "prob_6_plus": 0.3906, "prob_7_plus": 0.262, "prob_8_plus": 0.1651, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.4, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.915, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "matchup_score": 61.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.5, "expected_contact_quality": 74.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Brooks Baldwin", "matchup_score": 57.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.6, "expected_contact_quality": 71.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "matchup_score": 56.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.7, "expected_contact_quality": 63.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-24T03:45:42.401881+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-23", "game_pk": 824951, "pitcher_id": 605488, "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.79, "skill_score": 9.2, "opportunity_score": 49.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 52.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.79, "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.019, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6689, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5033, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3507, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2276, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1385, "prob_4_plus": 0.6689, "prob_5_plus": 0.5033, "prob_6_plus": 0.3507, "prob_7_plus": 0.2276, "prob_8_plus": 0.1385, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.03, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16173.0, "temperature_f": 66.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.03, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Josh Lowe", "matchup_score": 59.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.6, "expected_contact_quality": 64.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "matchup_score": 55.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.3, "expected_contact_quality": 75.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 47.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.6, "expected_contact_quality": 98.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-24T03:45:42.401881+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-23", "game_pk": 824301, "pitcher_id": 518876, "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 62.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.52, "skill_score": 8.8, "opportunity_score": 58.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 37.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.99, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.52, "adjustment_delta": 0.53, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.132, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6298, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4593, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3091, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1932, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1131, "prob_4_plus": 0.6298, "prob_5_plus": 0.4593, "prob_6_plus": 0.3091, "prob_7_plus": 0.1932, "prob_8_plus": 0.1131, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.04, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27142.0, "temperature_f": 62.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.124, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 78.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 74.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "matchup_score": 73.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.3, "expected_contact_quality": 69.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-24T03:45:42.401881+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-23", "game_pk": 824625, "pitcher_id": 687473, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Gusto", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 58.6, "wind_speed_mph": 11.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.37, "skill_score": 9.0, "opportunity_score": 31.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 85.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.24, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.37, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6067, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4342, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2861, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1749, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1, "prob_4_plus": 0.6067, "prob_5_plus": 0.4342, "prob_6_plus": 0.2861, "prob_7_plus": 0.1749, "prob_8_plus": 0.1, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.73, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7135.0, "temperature_f": 58.6, "wind_speed_mph": 11.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.006, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 53.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carson Kelly", "matchup_score": 47.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.0, "expected_contact_quality": 83.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Dansby Swanson", "matchup_score": 41.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.4, "expected_contact_quality": 126.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-24T03:45:42.401881+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-23", "game_pk": 824785, "pitcher_id": 605135, "pitcher_name": "Chris Bassitt", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 63.0, "wind_speed_mph": 11.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.3, "skill_score": 21.6, "opportunity_score": 63.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 40.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "adjustment_delta": 0.5, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.119, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5955, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4223, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2754, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1666, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0942, "prob_4_plus": 0.5955, "prob_5_plus": 0.4223, "prob_6_plus": 0.2754, "prob_7_plus": 0.1666, "prob_8_plus": 0.0942, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35348.0, "temperature_f": 63.0, "wind_speed_mph": 11.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.938, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 67.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.6, "expected_contact_quality": 93.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 62.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.7, "expected_contact_quality": 68.8 }, { "hitter_name": "George Springer", "matchup_score": 54.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.9, "expected_contact_quality": 85.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-24T03:45:42.401881+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-23", "game_pk": 824868, "pitcher_id": 671096, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 65.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.02, "skill_score": 14.2, "opportunity_score": 29.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 84.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.65, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.02, "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5486, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3739, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2335, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1349, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0727, "prob_4_plus": 0.5486, "prob_5_plus": 0.3739, "prob_6_plus": 0.2335, "prob_7_plus": 0.1349, "prob_8_plus": 0.0727, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.84, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "temperature_f": 65.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.947, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 44.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.3, "expected_contact_quality": 106.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "matchup_score": 42.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.8, "expected_contact_quality": 113.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Michael Harris II", "matchup_score": 42.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.5, "expected_contact_quality": 99.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-24T03:45:42.401881+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-23", "game_pk": 824785, "pitcher_id": 453286, "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 63.0, "wind_speed_mph": 11.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 3.73, "skill_score": 7.0, "opportunity_score": 38.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 79.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.3, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.73, "adjustment_delta": 0.43, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.119, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4964, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.323, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1919, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1052, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0537, "prob_4_plus": 0.4964, "prob_5_plus": 0.323, "prob_6_plus": 0.1919, "prob_7_plus": 0.1052, "prob_8_plus": 0.0537, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17021.0, "temperature_f": 63.0, "wind_speed_mph": 11.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.938, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 64.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.4, "expected_contact_quality": 95.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "matchup_score": 55.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.9, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Leody Taveras", "matchup_score": 55.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.2, "expected_contact_quality": 87.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-24T03:45:42.401881+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-23", "game_pk": 823327, "pitcher_id": 669461, "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 55.0, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.67, "skill_score": 41.0, "opportunity_score": 43.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 59.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.47, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.057, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4852, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3124, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1836, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0994, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0502, "prob_4_plus": 0.4852, "prob_5_plus": 0.3124, "prob_6_plus": 0.1836, "prob_7_plus": 0.0994, "prob_8_plus": 0.0502, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "temperature_f": 55.0, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.899, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 37.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.8, "expected_contact_quality": 110.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Horwitz", "matchup_score": 35.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 77.3, "expected_contact_quality": 76.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Oneil Cruz", "matchup_score": 33.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.0, "expected_contact_quality": 127.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-24T03:45:42.401881+00:00" } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 663992, "pitcher_name": "Richard Lovelady", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 694346, "pitcher_name": "Trey Gibson", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 669310, "pitcher_name": "CJ Van Eyk", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 702885, "pitcher_name": "Cesar Perdomo", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 687570, "pitcher_name": "Connor Prielipp", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 669199, "pitcher_name": "Lake Bachar", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 701656, "pitcher_name": "Logan Henderson", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 543037, "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 669438, "pitcher_name": "Mason Englert", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 656492, "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663542, "pitcher_name": "Bryan Hudson", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 674003, "pitcher_name": "Cody Bradford", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 690997, "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 690279, "pitcher_name": "Mason Adams", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 700712, "pitcher_name": "Walbert Ure\u00f1a", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 814490, "pitcher_name": "Ethan Pecko", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }