{ "schema": "mithrandir.strikeout_props", "schema_version": 2, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "date": "2026-09-22", "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:47:28.855423+00:00", "generated_at": "2026-09-22T23:47:28.855765", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 20, "skipped_start_count": 12, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-09-22", "game_pk": 823412, "pitcher_id": 554430, "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 58.8, "wind_speed_mph": 8.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.92, "skill_score": 60.1, "opportunity_score": 65.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.4, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 33.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.79, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.92, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.019, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.871, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.7686, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.6448, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.514, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.3897, "prob_4_plus": 0.871, "prob_5_plus": 0.7686, "prob_6_plus": 0.6448, "prob_7_plus": 0.514, "prob_8_plus": 0.3897, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.71, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "temperature_f": 58.8, "wind_speed_mph": 8.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.983, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "matchup_score": 90.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 142.0, "expected_contact_quality": 76.7 }, { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "matchup_score": 89.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.6, "expected_contact_quality": 71.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "matchup_score": 89.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 148.0, "expected_contact_quality": 88.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:47:28.855423+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-22", "game_pk": 823089, "pitcher_id": 669302, "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 54.1, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.39, "skill_score": 58.8, "opportunity_score": 59.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.6, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 39.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.52, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.39, "adjustment_delta": -0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.98, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8357, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.7168, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.581, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.4452, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.3234, "prob_4_plus": 0.8357, "prob_5_plus": 0.7168, "prob_6_plus": 0.581, "prob_7_plus": 0.4452, "prob_8_plus": 0.3234, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.86, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "temperature_f": 54.1, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.932, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 87.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "matchup_score": 77.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.9, "expected_contact_quality": 90.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 75.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:47:28.855423+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-22", "game_pk": 822840, "pitcher_id": 669022, "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 84.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.97, "skill_score": 20.1, "opportunity_score": 39.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 68.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.25, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.97, "adjustment_delta": -0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.956, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8016, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6692, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5252, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3882, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2713, "prob_4_plus": 0.8016, "prob_5_plus": 0.6692, "prob_6_plus": 0.5252, "prob_7_plus": 0.3882, "prob_8_plus": 0.2713, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.46, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "temperature_f": 84.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.974, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 72.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.8, "expected_contact_quality": 81.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 63.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.0, "expected_contact_quality": 107.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "matchup_score": 58.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.0, "expected_contact_quality": 105.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:47:28.855423+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-22", "game_pk": 823543, "pitcher_id": 607074, "pitcher_name": "Carlos Rod\u00f3n", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.4, "wind_speed_mph": 12.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 5.85, "skill_score": 43.4, "opportunity_score": 30.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.9, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 77.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.85, "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7906, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6545, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5085, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3718, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2567, "prob_4_plus": 0.7906, "prob_5_plus": 0.6545, "prob_6_plus": 0.5085, "prob_7_plus": 0.3718, "prob_8_plus": 0.2567, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.43, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31867.0, "temperature_f": 66.4, "wind_speed_mph": 12.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.987, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 80.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.5, "expected_contact_quality": 75.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "matchup_score": 67.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.3, "expected_contact_quality": 72.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Walls", "matchup_score": 65.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:47:28.855423+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-22", "game_pk": 823494, "pitcher_id": 608331, "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 57.9, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 5.64, "skill_score": 41.7, "opportunity_score": 32.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 84.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.53, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.64, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.01, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7703, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6275, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4786, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3428, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2315, "prob_4_plus": 0.7703, "prob_5_plus": 0.6275, "prob_6_plus": 0.4786, "prob_7_plus": 0.3428, "prob_8_plus": 0.2315, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.54, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30318.0, "temperature_f": 57.9, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.987, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 77.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 130.3, "expected_contact_quality": 64.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "matchup_score": 69.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.7, "expected_contact_quality": 91.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "matchup_score": 67.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:47:28.855423+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-22", "game_pk": 824624, "pitcher_id": 684007, "pitcher_name": "Shota Imanaga", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 58.3, "wind_speed_mph": 15.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "skill_score": 47.8, "opportunity_score": 48.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.3, "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.98, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7335, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5807, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4285, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.296, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1924, "prob_4_plus": 0.7335, "prob_5_plus": 0.5807, "prob_6_plus": 0.4285, "prob_7_plus": 0.296, "prob_8_plus": 0.1924, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.02, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21240.0, "temperature_f": 58.3, "wind_speed_mph": 15.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.905, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 68.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.4, "expected_contact_quality": 72.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 65.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.9, "expected_contact_quality": 88.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "matchup_score": 56.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.2, "expected_contact_quality": 70.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:47:28.855423+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-22", "game_pk": 823166, "pitcher_id": 671737, "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 55.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "skill_score": 56.3, "opportunity_score": 63.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.3, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 32.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.02, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.18, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.031, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7193, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5632, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4104, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2796, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1791, "prob_4_plus": 0.7193, "prob_5_plus": 0.5632, "prob_6_plus": 0.4104, "prob_7_plus": 0.2796, "prob_8_plus": 0.1791, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.39, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "temperature_f": 55.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.925, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "matchup_score": 76.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "matchup_score": 66.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.6, "expected_contact_quality": 91.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Harrison Bader", "matchup_score": 64.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.3, "expected_contact_quality": 78.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:47:28.855423+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-22", "game_pk": 824953, "pitcher_id": 579328, "pitcher_name": "Yusei Kikuchi", "team_id": 108, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "skill_score": 26.6, "opportunity_score": 33.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 74.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.77, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.084, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7181, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5617, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4089, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2782, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.178, "prob_4_plus": 0.7181, "prob_5_plus": 0.5617, "prob_6_plus": 0.4089, "prob_7_plus": 0.2782, "prob_8_plus": 0.178, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35613.0, "temperature_f": 64.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.034, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 75.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 143.5, "expected_contact_quality": 93.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 70.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.4, "expected_contact_quality": 77.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "matchup_score": 60.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.2, "expected_contact_quality": 102.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:47:28.855423+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-22", "game_pk": 822840, "pitcher_id": 640455, "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "team_id": 121, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 84.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "skill_score": 11.1, "opportunity_score": 62.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 34.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.06, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.069, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7045, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5453, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3922, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2634, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1662, "prob_4_plus": 0.7045, "prob_5_plus": 0.5453, "prob_6_plus": 0.3922, "prob_7_plus": 0.2634, "prob_8_plus": 0.1662, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.58, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19201.0, "temperature_f": 84.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.974, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "matchup_score": 66.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.1, "expected_contact_quality": 67.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "matchup_score": 63.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.2, "expected_contact_quality": 93.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "matchup_score": 62.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.2, "expected_contact_quality": 92.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:47:28.855423+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-22", "game_pk": 823897, "pitcher_id": 650633, "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "skill_score": 21.3, "opportunity_score": 72.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 27.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.05, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.069, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7033, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5438, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3906, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.262, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1651, "prob_4_plus": 0.7033, "prob_5_plus": 0.5438, "prob_6_plus": 0.3906, "prob_7_plus": 0.262, "prob_8_plus": 0.1651, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.63, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.963, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 74.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 147.9, "expected_contact_quality": 101.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 74.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Call", "matchup_score": 62.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.8, "expected_contact_quality": 69.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:47:28.855423+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-22", "game_pk": 824302, "pitcher_id": 647336, "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.59, "skill_score": 4.9, "opportunity_score": 42.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 64.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.29, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.069, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6403, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4709, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3198, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.202, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1195, "prob_4_plus": 0.6403, "prob_5_plus": 0.4709, "prob_6_plus": 0.3198, "prob_7_plus": 0.202, "prob_8_plus": 0.1195, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11610.0, "temperature_f": 64.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.129, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 65.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 62.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "matchup_score": 62.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.5, "expected_contact_quality": 67.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:47:28.855423+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-22", "game_pk": 824785, "pitcher_id": 605135, "pitcher_name": "Chris Bassitt", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 59.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.25, "skill_score": 21.6, "opportunity_score": 63.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 40.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.119, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5874, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4137, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2679, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1608, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0902, "prob_4_plus": 0.5874, "prob_5_plus": 0.4137, "prob_6_plus": 0.2679, "prob_7_plus": 0.1608, "prob_8_plus": 0.0902, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35348.0, "temperature_f": 59.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.949, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 67.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.6, "expected_contact_quality": 93.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 62.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.7, "expected_contact_quality": 68.8 }, { "hitter_name": "George Springer", "matchup_score": 54.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.9, "expected_contact_quality": 85.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:47:28.855423+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-22", "game_pk": 823494, "pitcher_id": 656876, "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "team_id": 139, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 57.9, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.24, "skill_score": 26.2, "opportunity_score": 62.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 41.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.24, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.076, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5858, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.412, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2663, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1596, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0894, "prob_4_plus": 0.5858, "prob_5_plus": 0.412, "prob_6_plus": 0.2663, "prob_7_plus": 0.1596, "prob_8_plus": 0.0894, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.77, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "temperature_f": 57.9, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.987, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 68.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "matchup_score": 58.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 152.0, "expected_contact_quality": 125.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "matchup_score": 51.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.7, "expected_contact_quality": 108.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:47:28.855423+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-22", "game_pk": 823412, "pitcher_id": 669160, "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "team_id": 158, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 58.8, "wind_speed_mph": 8.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "skill_score": 32.2, "opportunity_score": 0.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 100.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.84, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.21, "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.097, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5808, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4068, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2618, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1561, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.087, "prob_4_plus": 0.5808, "prob_5_plus": 0.4068, "prob_6_plus": 0.2618, "prob_7_plus": 0.1561, "prob_8_plus": 0.087, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "temperature_f": 58.8, "wind_speed_mph": 8.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.983, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 53.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.2, "expected_contact_quality": 84.9 }, { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 43.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.8, "expected_contact_quality": 96.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 39.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.1, "expected_contact_quality": 126.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:47:28.855423+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-22", "game_pk": 823543, "pitcher_id": 607259, "pitcher_name": "Nick Martinez", "team_id": 139, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.4, "wind_speed_mph": 12.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 3.88, "skill_score": 14.6, "opportunity_score": 50.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 50.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.88, "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.103, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.5238, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3493, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2131, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1201, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0631, "prob_4_plus": 0.5238, "prob_5_plus": 0.3493, "prob_6_plus": 0.2131, "prob_7_plus": 0.1201, "prob_8_plus": 0.0631, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18769.0, "temperature_f": 66.4, "wind_speed_mph": 12.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.987, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 55.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "matchup_score": 41.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.6, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "matchup_score": 34.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.2, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:47:28.855423+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-22", "game_pk": 824302, "pitcher_id": 607536, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.74, "skill_score": 18.5, "opportunity_score": 63.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 40.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.74, "adjustment_delta": -0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.918, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4982, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3247, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1933, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1061, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0543, "prob_4_plus": 0.4982, "prob_5_plus": 0.3247, "prob_6_plus": 0.1933, "prob_7_plus": 0.1061, "prob_8_plus": 0.0543, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 19.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.39, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26728.0, "temperature_f": 64.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.129, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 34.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.7, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "matchup_score": 33.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 48.1, "expected_contact_quality": 66.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Pavin Smith", "matchup_score": 20.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 92.7, "expected_contact_quality": 133.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:47:28.855423+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-22", "game_pk": 824785, "pitcher_id": 453286, "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 59.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.69, "skill_score": 7.0, "opportunity_score": 38.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 79.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.3, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.69, "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.119, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4889, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.316, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1863, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1013, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0513, "prob_4_plus": 0.4889, "prob_5_plus": 0.316, "prob_6_plus": 0.1863, "prob_7_plus": 0.1013, "prob_8_plus": 0.0513, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17021.0, "temperature_f": 59.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.7, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.949, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 64.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.4, "expected_contact_quality": 95.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "matchup_score": 55.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.9, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Leody Taveras", "matchup_score": 55.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.2, "expected_contact_quality": 87.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:47:28.855423+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-22", "game_pk": 823089, "pitcher_id": 664299, "pitcher_name": "Cristian Javier", "team_id": 117, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 54.1, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.4, "skill_score": 42.3, "opportunity_score": 24.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 93.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.07, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.4, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.107, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4331, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2653, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1478, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0757, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0361, "prob_4_plus": 0.4331, "prob_5_plus": 0.2653, "prob_6_plus": 0.1478, "prob_7_plus": 0.0757, "prob_8_plus": 0.0361, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14011.0, "temperature_f": 54.1, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.932, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Victor Robles", "matchup_score": 49.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "matchup_score": 45.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.2, "expected_contact_quality": 147.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "matchup_score": 40.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.0, "expected_contact_quality": 137.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:47:28.855423+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-22", "game_pk": 824624, "pitcher_id": 676083, "pitcher_name": "Janson Junk", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 58.3, "wind_speed_mph": 15.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 3.26, "skill_score": 2.1, "opportunity_score": 23.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 90.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.2, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.26, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.008, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4052, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2413, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1304, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0648, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0299, "prob_4_plus": 0.4052, "prob_5_plus": 0.2413, "prob_6_plus": 0.1304, "prob_7_plus": 0.0648, "prob_8_plus": 0.0299, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 24.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.46, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6842.0, "temperature_f": 58.3, "wind_speed_mph": 15.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.905, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 36.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 74.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "matchup_score": 35.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 47.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carson Kelly", "matchup_score": 31.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 73.4, "expected_contact_quality": 88.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:47:28.855423+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-22", "game_pk": 823328, "pitcher_id": 669467, "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 56.1, "wind_speed_mph": 10.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 3.23, "skill_score": 8.2, "opportunity_score": 52.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 49.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.9, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.23, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.3991, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.2362, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1268, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0625, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0286, "prob_4_plus": 0.3991, "prob_5_plus": 0.2362, "prob_6_plus": 0.1268, "prob_7_plus": 0.0625, "prob_8_plus": 0.0286, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.49, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "temperature_f": 56.1, "wind_speed_mph": 10.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.879, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 46.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.5, "expected_contact_quality": 88.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 37.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 101.9, "expected_contact_quality": 100.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "matchup_score": 31.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.1, "expected_contact_quality": 108.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:47:28.855423+00:00" } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 623454, "pitcher_name": "Drew Anderson", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 683000, "pitcher_name": "Riley Cornelio", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 683003, "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 801139, "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 800048, "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 702275, "pitcher_name": "JR Ritchie", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 682227, "pitcher_name": "Brandon Williamson", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663738, "pitcher_name": "Daniel Lynch IV", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 641743, "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 669620, "pitcher_name": "Brady Basso", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 683627, "pitcher_name": "Anthony Molina", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 592779, "pitcher_name": "Brock Stewart", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }