{ "date": "2026-07-11", "generated_at": "2026-07-11T08:05:23.235976", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 20, "skipped_start_count": 9, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-07-11", "game_pk": 823682, "pitcher_id": 657746, "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 91.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 6.41, "skill_score": 65.6, "opportunity_score": 61.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 47.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.04, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.41, "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.072, "prob_4_plus": 0.8372, "prob_5_plus": 0.7189, "prob_6_plus": 0.5835, "prob_7_plus": 0.4478, "prob_8_plus": 0.3259, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 80.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.85, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29998.0, "temperature_f": 91.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.034, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "matchup_score": 93.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 152.6, "expected_contact_quality": 81.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 91.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 147.3, "expected_contact_quality": 72.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "matchup_score": 84.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.7, "expected_contact_quality": 82.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 } }, { "date": "2026-07-11", "game_pk": 823603, "pitcher_id": 642547, "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "team_id": 121, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.02, "skill_score": 24.4, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 34.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.02, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "prob_4_plus": 0.8059, "prob_5_plus": 0.6752, "prob_6_plus": 0.5321, "prob_7_plus": 0.3951, "prob_8_plus": 0.2774, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.99, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.965, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 87.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 147.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 84.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 144.6, "expected_contact_quality": 82.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "matchup_score": 73.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.0, "expected_contact_quality": 71.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-07-11", "game_pk": 822953, "pitcher_id": 669302, "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.0, "skill_score": 52.6, "opportunity_score": 66.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.2, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 30.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.0, "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.98, "prob_4_plus": 0.8042, "prob_5_plus": 0.6728, "prob_6_plus": 0.5293, "prob_7_plus": 0.3924, "prob_8_plus": 0.2749, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.51, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.044, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 92.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 148.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "matchup_score": 75.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.3, "expected_contact_quality": 83.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Walls", "matchup_score": 71.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 } }, { "date": "2026-07-11", "game_pk": 824249, "pitcher_id": 650911, "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 74.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.98, "skill_score": 66.9, "opportunity_score": 63.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.6, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 20.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.84, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.024, "prob_4_plus": 0.8024, "prob_5_plus": 0.6704, "prob_6_plus": 0.5266, "prob_7_plus": 0.3896, "prob_8_plus": 0.2725, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.04, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30021.0, "temperature_f": 74.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.918, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "matchup_score": 81.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.5, "expected_contact_quality": 79.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "matchup_score": 69.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Colt Keith", "matchup_score": 68.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.1, "expected_contact_quality": 61.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-07-11", "game_pk": 824813, "pitcher_id": 680694, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.78, "skill_score": 15.2, "opportunity_score": 62.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.86, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.78, "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.987, "prob_4_plus": 0.784, "prob_5_plus": 0.6457, "prob_6_plus": 0.4987, "prob_7_plus": 0.3621, "prob_8_plus": 0.2482, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.45, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0, "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.982, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 81.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 81.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.6, "expected_contact_quality": 72.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "matchup_score": 70.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } }, { "date": "2026-07-11", "game_pk": 823926, "pitcher_id": 808967, "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 65.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.62, "skill_score": 39.2, "opportunity_score": 78.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 10.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.87, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.62, "adjustment_delta": -0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.958, "prob_4_plus": 0.7682, "prob_5_plus": 0.6249, "prob_6_plus": 0.4757, "prob_7_plus": 0.34, "prob_8_plus": 0.2292, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "temperature_f": 65.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.978, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Pavin Smith", "matchup_score": 72.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.7, "expected_contact_quality": 85.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Moreno", "matchup_score": 65.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.2, "expected_contact_quality": 80.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 64.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.3, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 } }, { "date": "2026-07-11", "game_pk": 822711, "pitcher_id": 693645, "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 120, "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 42.3, "opportunity_score": 53.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.61, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.985, "prob_4_plus": 0.7578, "prob_5_plus": 0.6114, "prob_6_plus": 0.4612, "prob_7_plus": 0.3262, "prob_8_plus": 0.2174, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.983, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Keibert Ruiz", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dylan Crews", "matchup_score": 75.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Robert Hassell III", "matchup_score": 72.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.0, "expected_contact_quality": 95.7 }, { "hitter_name": "James Wood", "matchup_score": 71.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.4, "expected_contact_quality": 95.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2093 } }, { "date": "2026-07-11", "game_pk": 824492, "pitcher_id": 666157, "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.22, "skill_score": 17.8, "opportunity_score": 47.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.22, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.009, "prob_4_plus": 0.7241, "prob_5_plus": 0.5691, "prob_6_plus": 0.4165, "prob_7_plus": 0.285, "prob_8_plus": 0.1835, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "temperature_f": 71.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.044, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Pete Crow-Armstrong", "matchup_score": 65.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.1, "expected_contact_quality": 111.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Carson Kelly", "matchup_score": 61.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.6, "expected_contact_quality": 81.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "matchup_score": 61.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.1, "expected_contact_quality": 102.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-07-11", "game_pk": 823844, "pitcher_id": 676440, "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 81.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "skill_score": 15.6, "opportunity_score": 41.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.04, "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.099, "prob_4_plus": 0.702, "prob_5_plus": 0.5422, "prob_6_plus": 0.3891, "prob_7_plus": 0.2607, "prob_8_plus": 0.1641, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "temperature_f": 81.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.943, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 83.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.5, "expected_contact_quality": 69.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 76.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.3, "expected_contact_quality": 63.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "matchup_score": 73.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.8, "expected_contact_quality": 103.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } }, { "date": "2026-07-11", "game_pk": 824249, "pitcher_id": 663554, "pitcher_name": "Casey Mize", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 74.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.98, "skill_score": 55.3, "opportunity_score": 47.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 53.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.14, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.98, "adjustment_delta": -0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.969, "prob_4_plus": 0.6943, "prob_5_plus": 0.5331, "prob_6_plus": 0.3799, "prob_7_plus": 0.2527, "prob_8_plus": 0.1578, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.79, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18609.0, "temperature_f": 74.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.918, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 57.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.3, "expected_contact_quality": 73.7 }, { "hitter_name": "J.T. Realmuto", "matchup_score": 55.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.5, "expected_contact_quality": 77.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 50.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.9, "expected_contact_quality": 107.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-07-11", "game_pk": 823844, "pitcher_id": 691587, "pitcher_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 81.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.74, "skill_score": 55.5, "opportunity_score": 41.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 60.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.66, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "prob_4_plus": 0.6619, "prob_5_plus": 0.4953, "prob_6_plus": 0.343, "prob_7_plus": 0.2211, "prob_8_plus": 0.1337, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12967.0, "temperature_f": 81.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.943, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 85.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 168.6, "expected_contact_quality": 86.9 }, { "hitter_name": "David Fry", "matchup_score": 78.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.0, "expected_contact_quality": 75.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Jones", "matchup_score": 75.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.2, "expected_contact_quality": 69.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 } }, { "date": "2026-07-11", "game_pk": 823198, "pitcher_id": 641816, "pitcher_name": "Tyler Mahle", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.64, "skill_score": 14.6, "opportunity_score": 32.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 75.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.4, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.64, "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.056, "prob_4_plus": 0.6476, "prob_5_plus": 0.4791, "prob_6_plus": 0.3276, "prob_7_plus": 0.2083, "prob_8_plus": 0.1241, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9084.0, "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.932, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 68.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "matchup_score": 64.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.3, "expected_contact_quality": 74.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 63.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } }, { "date": "2026-07-11", "game_pk": 824813, "pitcher_id": 702070, "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 16.0, "opportunity_score": 39.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.08, "prob_4_plus": 0.5987, "prob_5_plus": 0.4257, "prob_6_plus": 0.2785, "prob_7_plus": 0.169, "prob_8_plus": 0.0959, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.982, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Colton Cowser", "matchup_score": 51.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.1, "expected_contact_quality": 114.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Leody Taveras", "matchup_score": 46.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 92.7, "expected_contact_quality": 85.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 43.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.6, "expected_contact_quality": 103.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 } }, { "date": "2026-07-11", "game_pk": 823926, "pitcher_id": 694297, "pitcher_name": "Brandon Pfaadt", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 65.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.29, "skill_score": 16.0, "opportunity_score": 34.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 58.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.08, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.29, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.053, "prob_4_plus": 0.5939, "prob_5_plus": 0.4205, "prob_6_plus": 0.2739, "prob_7_plus": 0.1654, "prob_8_plus": 0.0934, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.86, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30360.0, "temperature_f": 65.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.978, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 58.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.9, "expected_contact_quality": 71.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Call", "matchup_score": 45.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 88.4, "expected_contact_quality": 85.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 45.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.6, "expected_contact_quality": 124.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-07-11", "game_pk": 822875, "pitcher_id": 677958, "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 86.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.24, "skill_score": 11.3, "opportunity_score": 21.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 89.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.24, "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.005, "prob_4_plus": 0.5858, "prob_5_plus": 0.412, "prob_6_plus": 0.2663, "prob_7_plus": 0.1596, "prob_8_plus": 0.0894, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.43, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "temperature_f": 86.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.099, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 65.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 129.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 48.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.7, "expected_contact_quality": 78.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "matchup_score": 41.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.7, "expected_contact_quality": 69.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 } }, { "date": "2026-07-11", "game_pk": 823030, "pitcher_id": 669461, "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.79, "skill_score": 40.3, "opportunity_score": 46.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.2, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 53.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.79, "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "prob_4_plus": 0.5075, "prob_5_plus": 0.3335, "prob_6_plus": 0.2003, "prob_7_plus": 0.111, "prob_8_plus": 0.0574, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 19.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.98, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.964, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ha-Seong Kim", "matchup_score": 31.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 67.4, "expected_contact_quality": 82.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "matchup_score": 23.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.9, "expected_contact_quality": 142.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 22.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.6, "expected_contact_quality": 122.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-07-11", "game_pk": 823198, "pitcher_id": 607536, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "skill_score": 21.9, "opportunity_score": 31.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 64.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.008, "prob_4_plus": 0.4908, "prob_5_plus": 0.3177, "prob_6_plus": 0.1877, "prob_7_plus": 0.1023, "prob_8_plus": 0.0519, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.95, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26728.0, "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.932, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "matchup_score": 48.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.2, "expected_contact_quality": 79.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "matchup_score": 33.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 38.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jung Hoo Lee", "matchup_score": 32.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 59.7, "expected_contact_quality": 81.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357 } }, { "date": "2026-07-11", "game_pk": 822711, "pitcher_id": 571945, "pitcher_name": "Miles Mikolas", "team_id": 120, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.56, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 30.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 67.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.38, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.56, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.054, "prob_4_plus": 0.4642, "prob_5_plus": 0.2932, "prob_6_plus": 0.1686, "prob_7_plus": 0.0894, "prob_8_plus": 0.0441, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.14, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32803.0, "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.983, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 45.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "matchup_score": 31.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.1, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "matchup_score": 22.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.1, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } }, { "date": "2026-07-11", "game_pk": 824492, "pitcher_id": 665871, "pitcher_name": "Javier Assad", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.53, "skill_score": 5.2, "opportunity_score": 32.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 69.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.19, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.53, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.108, "prob_4_plus": 0.4585, "prob_5_plus": 0.2879, "prob_6_plus": 0.1647, "prob_7_plus": 0.0867, "prob_8_plus": 0.0425, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.93, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15298.0, "temperature_f": 71.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.044, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 52.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.2, "expected_contact_quality": 83.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 50.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.4, "expected_contact_quality": 99.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "matchup_score": 41.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.5, "expected_contact_quality": 86.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-07-11", "game_pk": 823276, "pitcher_id": 621111, "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.51, "skill_score": 16.6, "opportunity_score": 23.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 78.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.51, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.008, "prob_4_plus": 0.4546, "prob_5_plus": 0.2844, "prob_6_plus": 0.162, "prob_7_plus": 0.085, "prob_8_plus": 0.0415, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 24.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.77, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15814.0, "temperature_f": 66.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.963, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 37.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.9, "expected_contact_quality": 79.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 33.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.7, "expected_contact_quality": 109.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Andr\u00e9s Gim\u00e9nez", "matchup_score": 28.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 69.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 696149, "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 675660, "pitcher_name": "Shane Drohan", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 696270, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Johnson", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663542, "pitcher_name": "Bryan Hudson", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 695611, "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 643377, "pitcher_name": "Griffin Jax", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663567, "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 625643, "pitcher_name": "Reynaldo L\u00f3pez", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 702056, "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }