{ "date": "2026-07-07", "generated_at": "2026-07-07T08:03:45.902471", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 18, "skipped_start_count": 7, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-07-07", "game_pk": 824254, "pitcher_id": 669373, "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 7.07, "skill_score": 77.2, "opportunity_score": 60.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 58.0, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 34.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.53, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 7.07, "adjustment_delta": 0.54, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "prob_4_plus": 0.8796, "prob_5_plus": 0.7817, "prob_6_plus": 0.6616, "prob_7_plus": 0.5326, "prob_8_plus": 0.4084, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 86.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.51, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29251.0, "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.981, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 98.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 156.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "matchup_score": 98.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 157.7, "expected_contact_quality": 61.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 98.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 181.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-07-07", "game_pk": 822881, "pitcher_id": 594798, "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 85.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.05, "skill_score": 73.2, "opportunity_score": 55.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 55.7, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 47.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.58, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.05, "adjustment_delta": 0.47, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.085, "prob_4_plus": 0.8085, "prob_5_plus": 0.6787, "prob_6_plus": 0.5362, "prob_7_plus": 0.3992, "prob_8_plus": 0.2811, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.53, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "temperature_f": 85.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.047, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 91.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 148.8, "expected_contact_quality": 75.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "matchup_score": 88.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 153.4, "expected_contact_quality": 91.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "matchup_score": 85.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.3, "expected_contact_quality": 83.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 } }, { "date": "2026-07-07", "game_pk": 823361, "pitcher_id": 694973, "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "team_id": 134, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.98, "skill_score": 39.0, "opportunity_score": 49.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "prob_4_plus": 0.8024, "prob_5_plus": 0.6704, "prob_6_plus": 0.5266, "prob_7_plus": 0.3896, "prob_8_plus": 0.2725, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.21, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.952, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 93.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 149.1, "expected_contact_quality": 75.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "matchup_score": 81.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.9, "expected_contact_quality": 98.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "matchup_score": 76.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.3, "expected_contact_quality": 90.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-07-07", "game_pk": 823062, "pitcher_id": 694819, "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "team_id": 158, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 89.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.92, "skill_score": 85.5, "opportunity_score": 48.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 41.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "prob_4_plus": 0.7971, "prob_5_plus": 0.6631, "prob_6_plus": 0.5183, "prob_7_plus": 0.3814, "prob_8_plus": 0.2652, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.49, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "temperature_f": 89.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.949, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 89.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 160.0, "expected_contact_quality": 71.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "matchup_score": 82.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 169.3, "expected_contact_quality": 93.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Pedro Pag\u00e9s", "matchup_score": 81.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.9, "expected_contact_quality": 62.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-07-07", "game_pk": 822881, "pitcher_id": 667755, "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "team_id": 108, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 85.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "skill_score": 47.2, "opportunity_score": 68.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 25.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.47, "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.986, "prob_4_plus": 0.7525, "prob_5_plus": 0.6046, "prob_6_plus": 0.4538, "prob_7_plus": 0.3193, "prob_8_plus": 0.2117, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20556.0, "temperature_f": 85.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.047, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "matchup_score": 53.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.2, "expected_contact_quality": 82.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Danny Jansen", "matchup_score": 46.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.0, "expected_contact_quality": 93.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Smith", "matchup_score": 44.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 89.7, "expected_contact_quality": 78.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 } }, { "date": "2026-07-07", "game_pk": 823687, "pitcher_id": 671737, "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.31, "skill_score": 59.5, "opportunity_score": 64.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 25.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.31, "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.986, "prob_4_plus": 0.7346, "prob_5_plus": 0.5821, "prob_6_plus": 0.43, "prob_7_plus": 0.2973, "prob_8_plus": 0.1935, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "temperature_f": 75.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.975, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 80.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 165.0, "expected_contact_quality": 94.1 }, { "hitter_name": "David Fry", "matchup_score": 74.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 132.3, "expected_contact_quality": 79.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Jones", "matchup_score": 69.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.0, "expected_contact_quality": 66.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 } }, { "date": "2026-07-07", "game_pk": 823687, "pitcher_id": 676282, "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.09, "skill_score": 40.4, "opportunity_score": 35.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.9, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 67.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.09, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.025, "prob_4_plus": 0.7083, "prob_5_plus": 0.5498, "prob_6_plus": 0.3967, "prob_7_plus": 0.2674, "prob_8_plus": 0.1694, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "temperature_f": 75.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.975, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 77.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 150.3, "expected_contact_quality": 92.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 60.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.7, "expected_contact_quality": 73.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers", "matchup_score": 55.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.0, "expected_contact_quality": 90.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-07-07", "game_pk": 824820, "pitcher_id": 669358, "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "skill_score": 20.8, "opportunity_score": 71.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 19.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.03, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.05, "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.004, "prob_4_plus": 0.7033, "prob_5_plus": 0.5438, "prob_6_plus": 0.3906, "prob_7_plus": 0.262, "prob_8_plus": 0.1651, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18414.0, "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.98, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 58.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carson Kelly", "matchup_score": 57.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.6, "expected_contact_quality": 83.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Dansby Swanson", "matchup_score": 50.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.9, "expected_contact_quality": 120.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-07-07", "game_pk": 823847, "pitcher_id": 676974, "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "team_id": 146, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 80.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.02, "skill_score": 35.4, "opportunity_score": 57.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 41.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.96, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.02, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "prob_4_plus": 0.6995, "prob_5_plus": 0.5392, "prob_6_plus": 0.386, "prob_7_plus": 0.258, "prob_8_plus": 0.162, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.31, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9067.0, "temperature_f": 80.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.944, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Victor Robles", "matchup_score": 53.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.4, "expected_contact_quality": 67.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "matchup_score": 43.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.4, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "matchup_score": 40.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.5, "expected_contact_quality": 144.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-07-07", "game_pk": 824820, "pitcher_id": 571510, "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "skill_score": 28.8, "opportunity_score": 37.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 68.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.01, "prob_4_plus": 0.6956, "prob_5_plus": 0.5346, "prob_6_plus": 0.3814, "prob_7_plus": 0.254, "prob_8_plus": 0.1588, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.14, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19940.0, "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.98, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Colton Cowser", "matchup_score": 66.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.7, "expected_contact_quality": 98.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Leody Taveras", "matchup_score": 55.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.1, "expected_contact_quality": 75.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 54.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.5, "expected_contact_quality": 92.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 } }, { "date": "2026-07-07", "game_pk": 823607, "pitcher_id": 607625, "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 65.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "skill_score": 14.4, "opportunity_score": 61.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 30.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.78, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.011, "prob_4_plus": 0.6675, "prob_5_plus": 0.5017, "prob_6_plus": 0.3491, "prob_7_plus": 0.2263, "prob_8_plus": 0.1376, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.02, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "temperature_f": 65.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.93, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 51.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.3, "expected_contact_quality": 115.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 48.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.9, "expected_contact_quality": 100.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "matchup_score": 46.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.9, "expected_contact_quality": 113.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } }, { "date": "2026-07-07", "game_pk": 822956, "pitcher_id": 701542, "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 83.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.74, "skill_score": 19.6, "opportunity_score": 51.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.7, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 45.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.001, "prob_4_plus": 0.6619, "prob_5_plus": 0.4953, "prob_6_plus": 0.343, "prob_7_plus": 0.2211, "prob_8_plus": 0.1337, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "temperature_f": 83.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.005, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 72.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.1, "expected_contact_quality": 84.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Walls", "matchup_score": 57.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "matchup_score": 52.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.4, "expected_contact_quality": 83.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 } }, { "date": "2026-07-07", "game_pk": 824254, "pitcher_id": 669372, "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.67, "skill_score": 27.2, "opportunity_score": 54.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 55.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.14, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "adjustment_delta": 0.53, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.128, "prob_4_plus": 0.652, "prob_5_plus": 0.484, "prob_6_plus": 0.3322, "prob_7_plus": 0.2121, "prob_8_plus": 0.1269, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8470.0, "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.981, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "matchup_score": 64.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.0, "expected_contact_quality": 94.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "matchup_score": 64.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.5, "expected_contact_quality": 100.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Vierling", "matchup_score": 63.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-07-07", "game_pk": 823361, "pitcher_id": 694462, "pitcher_name": "Hurston Waldrep", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.57, "skill_score": 23.2, "opportunity_score": 34.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 66.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.2, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.57, "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.088, "prob_4_plus": 0.6373, "prob_5_plus": 0.4676, "prob_6_plus": 0.3168, "prob_7_plus": 0.1995, "prob_8_plus": 0.1176, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.25, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4587.0, "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.952, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Bart", "matchup_score": 67.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.9, "expected_contact_quality": 78.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 63.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.3, "expected_contact_quality": 78.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "matchup_score": 57.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 112.3, "expected_contact_quality": 81.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-07-07", "game_pk": 824495, "pitcher_id": 671096, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 77.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.39, "skill_score": 18.9, "opportunity_score": 53.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 43.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.01, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.094, "prob_4_plus": 0.6098, "prob_5_plus": 0.4375, "prob_6_plus": 0.2891, "prob_7_plus": 0.1773, "prob_8_plus": 0.1017, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "temperature_f": 77.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.027, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 55.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.0, "expected_contact_quality": 71.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 54.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.3, "expected_contact_quality": 97.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "matchup_score": 54.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.1, "expected_contact_quality": 87.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-07-07", "game_pk": 823280, "pitcher_id": 668678, "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 65.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.27, "skill_score": 15.8, "opportunity_score": 51.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.8, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 52.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "adjustment_delta": 0.42, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.11, "prob_4_plus": 0.5907, "prob_5_plus": 0.4171, "prob_6_plus": 0.2709, "prob_7_plus": 0.1631, "prob_8_plus": 0.0918, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.14, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35438.0, "temperature_f": 65.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.952, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 65.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.8, "expected_contact_quality": 73.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "matchup_score": 55.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.9, "expected_contact_quality": 102.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "matchup_score": 47.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 83.3, "expected_contact_quality": 72.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 } }, { "date": "2026-07-07", "game_pk": 823929, "pitcher_id": 547179, "pitcher_name": "Michael Lorenzen", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 65.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.88, "skill_score": 10.5, "opportunity_score": 46.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 47.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.75, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.88, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "prob_4_plus": 0.5238, "prob_5_plus": 0.3493, "prob_6_plus": 0.2131, "prob_7_plus": 0.1201, "prob_8_plus": 0.0631, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 24.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.34, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26336.0, "temperature_f": 65.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.964, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 47.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.6, "expected_contact_quality": 70.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Call", "matchup_score": 37.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 82.5, "expected_contact_quality": 85.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 35.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.0, "expected_contact_quality": 124.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-07-07", "game_pk": 823280, "pitcher_id": 608566, "pitcher_name": "Germ\u00e1n M\u00e1rquez", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 65.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.16, "skill_score": 3.8, "opportunity_score": 43.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 62.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.16, "adjustment_delta": -0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.924, "prob_4_plus": 0.3849, "prob_5_plus": 0.2244, "prob_6_plus": 0.1186, "prob_7_plus": 0.0575, "prob_8_plus": 0.0259, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 7.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 2.99, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11611.0, "temperature_f": 65.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.952, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "matchup_score": 27.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 43.0, "expected_contact_quality": 70.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 16.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 97.0, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "matchup_score": 7.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 60.3, "expected_contact_quality": 115.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 693855, "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 674841, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Alvarez", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 837227, "pitcher_name": "Tatsuya Imai", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 702273, "pitcher_name": "Noah Schultz", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 801139, "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 686790, "pitcher_name": "Trevor McDonald", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 680736, "pitcher_name": "Justin Wrobleski", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }