Mithrandir Metrics
Player New York Mets Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / New York Mets

Austin Warren

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 0", 170 lb · Age 30

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club New York Mets Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024001.6960010.271.31
2025100.965009.190.96
2026234.01402049.1551.34
6 Seasons933.358321107.11021.27
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
48
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
46
Arsenal6 metrics
53
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.43
ERA current pace4.27
ERA rolling p503.83
Observed weight47%
ERA
1.82 2.77 3.83 4.88 5.83
FIP
2.75 3.25 3.80 4.35 4.85
K%
18.3% 20.3% 22.5% 24.7% 26.7%
BB%
7.3% 8.5% 9.8% 11.2% 12.4%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.36
45
ERA4.27
44
BB%10.7%
28
K%27.0%
81 +39 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.321
39
Barrel allowed10.9%
8 -30 vs proj
Fastball velo94.0
43
Hard-hit allowed38.3%
50
Whiff%26.1%
76 +51 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-26
Mithrandir Stuff+104
69
Slider Stuff+107
89
Changeup Stuff+94
11
Curveball Stuff+105
84
Fastball Stuff+95
14
Sinker Stuff+103
53
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Warren, Austin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.321 2026-09-12: 0.3312026-09-13: 0.3312026-09-14: 0.3312026-09-18: 0.3232026-09-19: 0.3232026-09-20: 0.3232026-09-21: 0.3262026-09-22: 0.3262026-09-23: 0.3262026-09-24: 0.3262026-09-25: 0.3262026-09-26: 0.321 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 46%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Warren, Austin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 21%21%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Warren, Austin · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 45.8%Sinker: 27.6%4-Seam Fastball: 15.6%Curveball: 7.1%Changeup: 2.3%Cutter: 1.6% ST46% · 85 mphprimary pitch ST 46%SI 28%FF 16%CU 7%CH 2%FC 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Warren, Austin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sweeper: 46% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 84.8 mphST85 mphSinker: 28% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 94.0 mphSI94 mph4-Seam Fastball: 16% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 93.9 mphFF94 mphCurveball: 7% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 84.2 mphCU84 mphChangeup: 2% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 87.1 mphCH87 mphCutter: 2% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 88.8 mphFC89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 45.0% 237 107 qualified
SI 27.1% 143 103 limited sample
FB 16.1% 85 95 limited sample
CB 6.8% 36 105 limited sample
CH 3.2% 17 94 limited sample
FC 1.7% 9 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age30
Height6' 0"
Weight170 lb
Debut2021-07-29
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.04
K% Δ+0.059

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.3σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.331
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.321

Warren’s wOBA-against sits at 0.331, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.321 — a gap of 0.010, 0.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 49 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202621.1% K | 4.23 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 @ WSH2 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-04-15 @ LAD1 ER / 1 K0.2 IP