Mithrandir Metrics
CHC National League Central Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Club dossier / National League / National League Central

Chicago Cubs

85.5-76.5 with P10-P90 wins 76-95. 80.2 avg opponent projected wins.

Projected W
85.5-76.5
Live pace
91.1
Delta
+5.7
Record 54-42 Run diff 52 Generated 2026-07-17T11:44:53.145921+00:00
Rolling projection

Preseason / pace / Bayesian update

Preseason85.0
Current pace91.1
Rolling p5088.8
Observed weight62%
Rolling wins
78.3 83.3 88.8 94.3 99.2
MOVE +3.8 wins PACE ahead BULLPEN FIP 4.34
October path

Projection odds

Division44.4%
Playoffs60.8%
Pennant9.2%
World Series4.4%
Run environment

Team talent

wOBA0.270
Rotation FIP4.40
Bullpen FIP4.34
Run diff35.5
Depth chart

Projected lineup

SlotPlayerPAValue
CKelly, Carson462-0.86
1BBusch, Michael5747.15
2BHoerner, Nico6120.21
SSSwanson, Dansby6023.31
3BBregman, Alex5332.56
LFHapp, Ian6205.65
CFCrow-Armstrong, Pete5842.14
RFSuzuki, Seiya6056.54
DHConforto, Michael4992.37