Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / CHC · 2026
Shaw, Matt
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team CHC
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 25
Status IL-10
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.317 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.299 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.311 |
| Observed weight | 36% |
xwOBA
0.277
0.293
0.311
0.329
0.345
wOBA
0.361
0.388
0.417
0.447
0.474
ISO
0.136
0.156
0.179
0.202
0.222
K%
17.2%
18.6%
20.1%
21.6%
23.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%7.1%
31
-17 vs proj
Barrel%4.0%
34
Bat speed65.4
9
Exit velocity85.8
20
Hard-hit%37.0%
38
+18 vs proj
K%19.0%
67
xBA0.313
38
xSLG0.473
38
xwOBA0.299
40
-18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · RF
46
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
45
Range Runs-0.1 · RF
55
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts3.0 · RF
43
Sprint Speed29.0 · RF
92
SB Success Rate66.7% · RF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.1% · rebadged research
29
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.9% · rebadged research
41
Correct Decisions63.1% · rebadged research
21
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.293 · borderline
30
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.268 · insufficient sample
81
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.292 · validated thin sample
15
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.318 · insufficient sample
86
Resists FastballwOBA 0.341 · validated
47
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.353 · validated
61
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
27
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
92 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.018 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.100 |
| Sample | 126 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 436 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 13 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.318 | 0.276 to 0.365 | +/- 0.044 |
| ISO | 0.154 | 0.113 to 0.240 | +/- 0.063 |
| Barrel% | 4.2% | 2.6% to 7.0% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 32.1% | 27.6% to 41.5% | +/- 6.9% |
| K% | 20.2% | 18.9% to 26.4% | +/- 3.8% |
| BB% | 8.9% | 5.2% to 11.9% | +/- 3.3% |
| BABIP | 0.281 | 0.255 to 0.326 | +/- 0.036 |
vs LHP
121 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.210 |
| K% | 13.3% |
| BB% | 7.0% |
| Barrel | 3.7% |
vs RHP
360 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.199 |
| K% | 14.7% |
| BB% | 6.3% |
| Barrel | 3.3% |