Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / CHC · 2026
Alcántara, Kevin
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team CHC
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 24
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.281 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.274 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.281 |
| Observed weight | 9% |
xwOBA
0.184
0.230
0.281
0.331
0.377
wOBA
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
ISO
0.025
0.064
0.108
0.152
0.192
K%
15.2%
20.5%
26.5%
32.4%
37.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · LF
Limited
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF · small sample regression applied
58
Regression applied
Range Runs0.2 · LF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 82.4% · rebadged research
99
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.3% · rebadged research
38
Correct Decisions70.4% · rebadged research
87
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.282 · borderline
59
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.282 · insufficient sample
32
Resists FastballwOBA 0.344 · validated
42
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline113
97
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No chart yet
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
14 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 209 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.280 | 0.123 to 0.334 | +/- 0.106 |
| ISO | 0.120 | 0.016 to 0.198 | +/- 0.091 |
| Barrel% | 3.8% | 0.2% to 5.2% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 33.2% | 9.8% to 42.6% | +/- 16.4% |
| K% | 25.7% | 10.9% to 35.8% | +/- 12.4% |
| BB% | 5.4% | 1.0% to 10.0% | +/- 4.5% |
| BABIP | 0.294 | 0.163 to 0.355 | +/- 0.096 |
vs LHP
14 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.038 |
| K% | 3.7% |
| BB% | 0.7% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
27 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.036 |
| K% | 4.1% |
| BB% | 0.6% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |