Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CHC · 2026

Webb, Jacob

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.7% K%
Range
17.3% to 29.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team CHC Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
57
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
52
Arsenal5 metrics
79
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.77
ERA current pace3.41
ERA rolling p503.57
Observed weight55%
ERA
2.22 2.86 3.57 4.28 4.92
FIP
3.52 3.90 4.33 4.75 5.14
K%
20.7% 22.2% 23.9% 25.6% 27.2%
BB%
6.8% 7.7% 8.7% 9.8% 10.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.34
48
ERA3.41
72
BB%8.6%
54
K%25.0%
70 +16 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.322
39 -17 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.9%
27 -26 vs proj
Fastball velo94.2
46
Hard-hit allowed43.2%
18
Whiff%31.4%
95 +34 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+111
97
Fastball Stuff+104
63
Mithrandir Stuff+105
81
Curveball Stuff+104
81
Slider Stuff+104
72
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 43%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Webb, Jacob · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.322 2026-09-13: 0.3182026-09-14: 0.3182026-09-18: 0.3242026-09-19: 0.3242026-09-20: 0.3242026-09-21: 0.3242026-09-22: 0.3242026-09-23: 0.3242026-09-24: 0.3222026-09-25: 0.3222026-09-26: 0.3222026-09-27: 0.322 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Webb, Jacob · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 31%31%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Webb, Jacob · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 42.9%Changeup: 38.7%Slider: 8.2%Curveball: 7.3%Sweeper: 2.9% FF43% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 43%CH 39%SL 8%CU 7%ST 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Webb, Jacob · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 43% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 94.2 mphFF94 mphChangeup: 39% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 85.6 mphCH86 mphSlider: 8% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 85.7 mphSL86 mphCurveball: 7% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 53″ drop, 81.8 mphCU82 mphSweeper: 3% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 82.5 mphST83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 45.5% 345 104 qualified
CH 39.2% 297 111 qualified
SL 7.9% 60 104 limited sample
CB 7.4% 56 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.263 vs 0.285 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 44%, Changeup 35%, Sweeper 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.18
K% Δ+0.023
Sample66.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings39.6----
Batters Faced164----
K%22.7%17.3% to 29.2%+/- 6.0%
BB%9.0%6.3% to 13.4%+/- 3.6%
Whiff%24.2%20.7% to 30.2%+/- 4.7%
HR/91.190.64 to 2.13+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.3080.259 to 0.364+/- 0.052
Barrel% Allowed7.3%3.9% to 10.9%+/- 3.5%
ERA3.591.98 to 5.76+/- 1.89
FIP3.932.98 to 5.26+/- 1.14
WHIP1.2800.985 to 1.539+/- 0.277
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

468 career BF

xwOBA0.263
K%21.2%
BB%9.4%
Barrel5.9%
vs RHH

693 career BF

xwOBA0.285
K%21.0%
BB%8.3%
Barrel7.2%