Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CHC · 2026

Webb, Jacob

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.7% K%
Range
17.3% to 29.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team CHC Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
59
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
52
Arsenal5 metrics
78
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.77
ERA current pace3.05
ERA rolling p503.45
Observed weight44%
ERA
2.10 2.74 3.45 4.16 4.80
FIP
3.48 3.86 4.29 4.71 5.10
K%
20.3% 22.1% 24.1% 26.1% 27.9%
BB%
6.4% 7.5% 8.8% 10.0% 11.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.37
41
ERA3.05
75
BB%8.5%
52
K%26.1%
74 +24 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.312
52
Barrel allowed9.8%
22 -36 vs proj
Fastball velo94.1
46
Hard-hit allowed45.9%
9
Whiff%30.8%
93 +34 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+104
62
Mithrandir Stuff+105
79
Changeup Stuff+110
94
Curveball Stuff+105
89
Slider Stuff+104
64
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 47%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Webb, Jacob · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.312 2026-07-06: 0.3212026-07-07: 0.3232026-07-08: 0.3232026-07-09: 0.3202026-07-10: 0.3182026-07-11: 0.3182026-07-12: 0.3182026-07-13: 0.3152026-07-14: 0.3132026-07-15: 0.3132026-07-16: 0.3122026-07-17: 0.312 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Webb, Jacob · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 31%31%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Webb, Jacob · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 46.6%Changeup: 35.8%Slider: 7.0%Curveball: 6.1%Sweeper: 4.4% FF47% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 47%CH 36%SL 7%CU 6%ST 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Webb, Jacob · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 47% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 94.1 mphFF94 mphChangeup: 36% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 85.6 mphCH86 mphSlider: 7% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 86.1 mphSL86 mphCurveball: 6% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 53″ drop, 81.7 mphCU82 mphSweeper: 4% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 82.5 mphST83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 50.0% 252 104 qualified
CH 36.5% 184 110 limited sample
SL 7.5% 38 104 limited sample
CB 6.0% 30 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.263 vs 0.285 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 44%, Changeup 35%, Sweeper 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.54
K% Δ+0.034
Sample42.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings40.1----
Batters Faced166----
K%22.7%17.3% to 29.2%+/- 6.0%
BB%9.0%6.3% to 13.4%+/- 3.6%
Whiff%24.2%20.7% to 30.2%+/- 4.7%
HR/91.190.64 to 2.13+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.3080.259 to 0.364+/- 0.052
Barrel% Allowed7.3%3.9% to 10.9%+/- 3.5%
ERA3.591.98 to 5.76+/- 1.89
FIP3.942.99 to 5.30+/- 1.16
WHIP1.2800.985 to 1.539+/- 0.277
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

468 career BF

xwOBA0.263
K%21.2%
BB%9.4%
Barrel5.9%
vs RHH

693 career BF

xwOBA0.285
K%21.0%
BB%8.3%
Barrel7.2%