Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CHC · 2026

Ferguson, Tyler

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.8% K%
Range
17.7% to 31.5%
Live Δ
--
Team CHC Archetype Balanced reliever Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
97
Pitching
percentile
Arsenal3 metrics
97
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.88
ERA current pace7.45
ERA rolling p504.41
Observed weight15%
ERA
2.39 3.35 4.41 5.48 6.44
FIP
3.12 3.70 4.35 5.00 5.58
K%
18.3% 21.2% 24.3% 27.5% 30.4%
BB%
5.7% 7.5% 9.4% 11.3% 13.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+115
99
Mithrandir Stuff+111
98
Slider Stuff+109
92
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 48%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

0 snapshots
No chart yet

No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ferguson, Tyler · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 54%54% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ferguson, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 47.9%Sweeper: 22.6%Sinker: 11.0%Cutter: 9.6%Slider: 5.5%Changeup: 3.4% FF48% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 48%ST 23%SI 11%FC 10%SL 5%CH 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ferguson, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 48% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 95.5 mphFF96 mphSweeper: 23% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 83.8 mphST84 mphSinker: 11% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 95.5 mphSI96 mphCutter: 10% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 87.4 mphFC87 mphSlider: 5% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 83.0 mphSL83 mphChangeup: 3% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 86.2 mphCH86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 43.3% 26 115 limited sample
SL 33.3% 20 109 limited sample
SI 15.0% 9 99 limited sample
CH 5.0% 3 95 limited sample
FC 3.3% 2 88 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.305 vs 0.259 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 38%, Sweeper 32%, Sinker 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

No Live State delta is available for this player yet.

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings36.8----
Batters Faced157----
K%22.8%17.7% to 31.5%+/- 6.9%
BB%11.0%7.6% to 16.2%+/- 4.3%
Whiff%23.4%19.0% to 29.9%+/- 5.5%
HR/91.080.04 to 1.69+/- 0.83
xwOBA Against0.3160.223 to 0.348+/- 0.063
Barrel% Allowed8.0%3.9% to 11.7%+/- 3.9%
ERA3.821.98 to 6.68+/- 2.35
FIP4.002.29 to 5.14+/- 1.43
WHIP1.3290.980 to 1.681+/- 0.350
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

193 career BF

xwOBA0.305
K%19.6%
BB%14.7%
Barrel7.9%
vs RHH

326 career BF

xwOBA0.259
K%24.5%
BB%9.0%
Barrel6.8%