Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BAL · 2026

Rogers, Trevor

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.8% K%
Range
17.1% to 25.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team BAL Archetype Balanced starter Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
69
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
61
Arsenal6 metrics
59
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.88
ERA current pace4.03
ERA rolling p503.99
Observed weight75%
ERA
2.92 3.43 3.99 4.56 5.06
FIP
2.58 3.06 3.58 4.11 4.58
K%
20.4% 21.2% 22.2% 23.2% 24.0%
BB%
4.8% 5.3% 5.8% 6.3% 6.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.20
71
ERA4.03
50
BB%5.4%
93 +27 vs proj
K%22.7%
54
xwOBA allowed0.293
75 +34 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.8%
60 +26 vs proj
Fastball velo93.7
37
Hard-hit allowed37.4%
58
Whiff%22.2%
48
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+104
70
Fastball Stuff+107
86
Mithrandir Stuff+105
79
Sinker Stuff+104
66
Slider Stuff+100
33
Cutter Stuff+98
21
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 46%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Rogers, Trevor · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.293 2026-09-13: 0.2942026-09-14: 0.2962026-09-18: 0.2962026-09-19: 0.2962026-09-20: 0.2962026-09-21: 0.2912026-09-22: 0.2912026-09-23: 0.2912026-09-24: 0.2912026-09-25: 0.2912026-09-26: 0.2932026-09-27: 0.293 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Rogers, Trevor · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 59%59%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rogers, Trevor · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 46.4%Changeup: 20.2%Sweeper: 14.3%Sinker: 10.4%Cutter: 8.7% FF46% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 46%CH 20%ST 14%SI 10%FC 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rogers, Trevor · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 46% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 93.8 mphFF94 mphChangeup: 20% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 87.0 mphCH87 mphSweeper: 14% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 78.1 mphST78 mphSinker: 10% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 93.3 mphSI93 mphCutter: 9% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 83.0 mphFC83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 47.7% 838 107 qualified
CH 19.4% 341 104 qualified
SL 12.8% 225 100 qualified
SI 11.9% 209 104 qualified
FC 8.2% 145 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.267 vs 0.292 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 41%, Changeup 25%, Sinker 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.22
K% Δ+0.019
Sample173.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings137.6----
Batters Faced578----
K%20.8%17.1% to 25.6%+/- 4.3%
BB%7.7%5.5% to 10.2%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%21.4%18.8% to 25.7%+/- 3.5%
HR/91.210.58 to 1.83+/- 0.63
xwOBA Against0.3200.281 to 0.343+/- 0.031
Barrel% Allowed8.4%6.2% to 11.3%+/- 2.6%
ERA3.812.35 to 5.05+/- 1.35
FIP4.012.86 to 5.39+/- 1.26
WHIP1.2021.013 to 1.490+/- 0.238
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

552 career BF

xwOBA0.267
K%21.3%
BB%8.3%
Barrel5.9%
vs RHH

1839 career BF

xwOBA0.292
K%18.7%
BB%7.6%
Barrel8.5%