Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BAL · 2026

Rogers, Trevor

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.8% K%
Range
17.1% to 25.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team BAL Archetype Balanced starter Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
45
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
43
Arsenal6 metrics
47
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.88
ERA current pace4.48
ERA rolling p504.26
Observed weight63%
ERA
3.27 3.74 4.26 4.78 5.24
FIP
3.09 3.52 4.01 4.49 4.93
K%
17.3% 18.3% 19.5% 20.6% 21.7%
BB%
6.1% 6.7% 7.4% 8.1% 8.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.32
50
ERA4.48
39
BB%7.6%
65
K%18.7%
25
xwOBA allowed0.320
44
Barrel allowed6.8%
64 +25 vs proj
Fastball velo93.4
31
Hard-hit allowed41.4%
32
Whiff%20.9%
33
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Changeup Stuff+104
65
Fastball Stuff+105
72
Mithrandir Stuff+103
60
Cutter Stuff+98
14
Sinker Stuff+103
58
Slider Stuff+96
15
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Rogers, Trevor · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.320 2026-07-05: 0.3152026-07-06: 0.3152026-07-07: 0.3152026-07-08: 0.3152026-07-09: 0.3152026-07-10: 0.3152026-07-11: 0.3202026-07-12: 0.3202026-07-13: 0.3202026-07-14: 0.3202026-07-15: 0.3202026-07-16: 0.320 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Rogers, Trevor · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rogers, Trevor · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 43.9%Changeup: 22.2%Sweeper: 12.1%Cutter: 11.0%Sinker: 10.9% FF44% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 44%CH 22%ST 12%FC 11%SI 11% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rogers, Trevor · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 44% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 93.5 mphFF93 mphChangeup: 22% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 87.2 mphCH87 mphSweeper: 12% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 78.3 mphST78 mphCutter: 11% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 82.9 mphFC83 mphSinker: 11% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 93.1 mphSI93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 44.3% 456 105 qualified
CH 22.7% 234 104 qualified
SI 12.2% 126 103 limited sample
FC 10.7% 110 98 limited sample
SL 10.1% 104 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.267 vs 0.292 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 41%, Changeup 25%, Sinker 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.67
K% Δ-0.021
Sample94.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings139.5----
Batters Faced586----
K%20.8%17.1% to 25.6%+/- 4.3%
BB%7.7%5.5% to 10.2%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%21.4%18.8% to 25.7%+/- 3.5%
HR/91.210.58 to 1.83+/- 0.63
xwOBA Against0.3200.281 to 0.343+/- 0.031
Barrel% Allowed8.4%6.2% to 11.3%+/- 2.6%
ERA3.812.35 to 5.05+/- 1.35
FIP4.012.86 to 5.39+/- 1.26
WHIP1.2021.013 to 1.489+/- 0.238
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

552 career BF

xwOBA0.267
K%21.3%
BB%8.3%
Barrel5.9%
vs RHH

1839 career BF

xwOBA0.292
K%18.7%
BB%7.6%
Barrel8.5%