Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CHC · 2026

Maton, Phil

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
23.8% K%
Range
17.7% to 32.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team CHC Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 33 Status IL-60
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
16
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
16
Arsenal5 metrics
59
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.81
ERA current pace6.18
ERA rolling p504.71
Observed weight38%
ERA
3.37 4.01 4.71 5.42 6.06
FIP
3.90 4.11 4.35 4.59 4.80
K%
18.4% 20.7% 23.2% 25.8% 28.0%
BB%
8.0% 9.3% 10.7% 12.0% 13.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.78
3
ERA6.18
9
BB%12.2%
17 -27 vs proj
K%22.3%
51
xwOBA allowed0.389
2 -44 vs proj
Barrel allowed13.0%
2 -51 vs proj
Fastball velo90.2
4
Hard-hit allowed44.6%
12
Whiff%21.5%
42 -30 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Curveball Stuff+103
64
Cutter Stuff+102
56
Mithrandir Stuff+103
62
Sinker Stuff+98
22
Slider Stuff+108
90
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 38%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Maton, Phil · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.389 2026-09-12: 0.3892026-09-13: 0.3892026-09-14: 0.3892026-09-18: 0.3892026-09-19: 0.3892026-09-20: 0.3892026-09-21: 0.3892026-09-22: 0.3892026-09-23: 0.3892026-09-24: 0.3892026-09-25: 0.3892026-09-26: 0.389 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Maton, Phil · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 59%59%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Maton, Phil · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 37.7%Curveball: 28.9%Sinker: 17.9%Sweeper: 14.4%Changeup: 1.2% FC38% · 90 mphprimary pitch FC 38%CU 29%SI 18%ST 14%CH 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Maton, Phil · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Cutter: 38% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 89.6 mphFC90 mphCurveball: 29% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 58″ drop, 75.5 mphCU76 mphSinker: 18% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 90.2 mphSI90 mphSweeper: 14% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 83.2 mphST83 mphChangeup: 1% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 83.4 mphCH83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 41.2% 160 102 limited sample
CB 28.4% 110 103 limited sample
SL 17.0% 66 108 limited sample
SI 13.4% 52 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Curveball 38%, Cutter 36%, Sweeper 14%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+2.79
K% Δ-0.015
Sample30.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings40.0----
Batters Faced168----
K%23.8%17.7% to 32.2%+/- 7.3%
BB%9.4%6.4% to 13.7%+/- 3.7%
Whiff%25.6%21.7% to 33.6%+/- 6.0%
HR/91.090.41 to 1.90+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.3170.238 to 0.356+/- 0.059
Barrel% Allowed7.2%3.6% to 10.7%+/- 3.5%
ERA3.392.09 to 5.79+/- 1.85
FIP3.822.64 to 3.87+/- 0.62
WHIP1.2001.014 to 1.635+/- 0.311
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1003 career BF

xwOBA0.297
K%23.8%
BB%11.2%
Barrel6.7%
vs RHH

1215 career BF

xwOBA0.282
K%24.6%
BB%7.5%
Barrel6.5%