Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / CHC · 2026

Busch, Michael

Middle-order power profile with real damage

Primary
0.353 xwOBA
Range
0.315 to 0.379
Live Δ
yes
Team CHC Archetype Impact slugger Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.346
xwOBA current pace0.352
xwOBA rolling p500.349
Observed weight56%
xwOBA
0.325 0.336 0.349 0.362 0.374
wOBA
0.334 0.351 0.370 0.390 0.407
ISO
0.147 0.162 0.179 0.195 0.211
K%
20.4% 21.7% 23.2% 24.6% 25.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%14.6%
94 +23 vs proj
Barrel%7.5%
79
Bat speed65.5
9
Exit velocity88.6
52
Hard-hit%42.8%
62
K%21.4%
52 +18 vs proj
xBA0.327
56
xSLG0.575
68
xwOBA0.352
81
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 1B
93
Range Runs3.4 · 1B
88
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.9 · 1B
15
Sprint Speed25.7 · 1B
15
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Limited
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.9% · rebadged research
82
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.6% · rebadged research
44
Correct Decisions67.9% · rebadged research
67
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
75
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.273 · borderline
79
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.294 · insufficient sample
14
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274 · validated thin sample
56
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.362 · insufficient sample
6
Resists FastballwOBA 0.335 · validated
60
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.395 · validated
3
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Busch, Michael · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.3322026-05-19: 0.3412026-05-21: 0.3462026-05-23: 0.3532026-05-24: 0.3502026-05-25: 0.3572026-05-26: 0.3572026-05-28: 0.3572026-05-29: 0.3572026-05-30: 0.3562026-05-31: 0.3542026-06-01: 0.352 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

163 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Busch, Michael · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 14% of plotted batted ballsPull 14%Center field third: 67% of plotted batted ballsCenter 67%Right field third: 18% of plotted batted ballsOppo 18% LF 355 CF 400 RF 353 2026-03-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.8 / LA 60.02026-03-15 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 107.0 / LA -19.02026-03-17 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 58.2 / LA -16.02026-03-17 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.9 / LA 25.02026-03-20 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 91.2 / LA -35.02026-03-20 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 105.3 / LA 8.02026-03-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 86.5 / LA -12.02026-03-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 73.8 / LA -26.02026-03-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 89.7 / LA -32.02026-03-22 · field out · FC · popup · EV 102.8 / LA 76.02026-03-23 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 55.7 / LA -50.02026-03-23 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 86.3 / LA 5.02026-03-23 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 110.9 / LA 28.02026-03-26 · double · FF · ground_ball · EV 77.6 / LA -23.02026-03-26 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 75.8 / LA -23.02026-03-26 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 105.4 / LA 17.02026-03-26 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 77.4 / LA 32.02026-03-28 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.8 / LA -5.02026-03-28 · field error · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.2 / LA 63.02026-03-28 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 72.2 / LA 15.02026-03-28 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.6 / LA 7.02026-03-29 · field out · SV · ground_ball · EV 98.7 / LA -8.02026-03-29 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 92.2 / LA 62.02026-03-30 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 98.1 / LA -5.02026-03-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 87.4 / LA -7.02026-03-30 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 86.3 / LA 23.02026-03-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.6 / LA 28.02026-03-31 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 59.6 / LA -20.02026-03-31 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 74.3 / LA -33.02026-04-01 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 104.7 / LA 8.02026-04-01 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 77.1 / LA 6.02026-04-03 · double play · SL · line_drive · EV 95.5 / LA 8.02026-04-03 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 96.4 / LA 21.02026-04-03 · field out · FF · popup · EV 84.8 / LA 67.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.2 / LA 51.02026-04-05 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 79.7 / LA -1.02026-04-05 · field out · FC · popup · EV 87.6 / LA 76.02026-04-05 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 83.3 / LA -3.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.4 / LA 55.02026-04-06 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 89.4 / LA 32.02026-04-06 · sac fly · SL · fly_ball · EV 92.8 / LA 43.02026-04-06 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 88.7 / LA 2.02026-04-07 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 93.4 / LA 40.02026-04-07 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 91.9 / LA 42.02026-04-07 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.0 / LA 31.02026-04-07 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.8 / LA 40.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 52.3 / LA 2.02026-04-08 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 65.8 / LA -12.02026-04-08 · field error · SI · ground_ball · EV 48.8 / LA -65.02026-04-10 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 101.4 / LA 24.02026-04-10 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 97.2 / LA -3.02026-04-10 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 80.5 / LA 57.02026-04-11 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.4 / LA -6.02026-04-12 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 68.2 / LA 23.02026-04-14 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 26.5 / LA -49.02026-04-14 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 63.5 / LA 16.02026-04-14 · single · KC · ground_ball · EV 88.9 / LA -1.02026-04-15 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 84.1 / LA -20.02026-04-15 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 81.9 / LA -35.02026-04-15 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 34.4 / LA -24.02026-04-15 · field out · EP · ground_ball · EV 39.5 / LA 7.02026-04-17 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 97.8 / LA 0.02026-04-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 75.7 / LA 53.02026-04-17 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 90.7 / LA -7.02026-04-18 · field out · FF · popup · EV 85.1 / LA 75.02026-04-18 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 91.4 / LA 19.02026-04-18 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 74.9 / LA 26.02026-04-19 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.3 / LA 3.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.0 / LA 3.02026-04-19 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 89.8 / LA -4.02026-04-20 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 61.4 / LA -50.02026-04-20 · single · KC · line_drive · EV 79.7 / LA 18.02026-04-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.1 / LA 43.02026-04-21 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 83.5 / LA 31.02026-04-21 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.2 / LA -12.02026-04-21 · single · SI · fly_ball · EV 67.0 / LA 30.02026-04-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 81.7 / LA -40.02026-04-22 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.8 / LA 34.02026-04-22 · single · FS · fly_ball · EV 70.6 / LA 32.02026-04-23 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 90.3 / LA 6.02026-04-23 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 68.7 / LA -26.02026-04-23 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 106.0 / LA 25.02026-04-23 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.3 / LA -25.02026-04-24 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 104.7 / LA 20.02026-04-24 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 102.6 / LA 8.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 67.0 / LA 44.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · popup · EV 81.7 / LA 77.02026-04-25 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 103.6 / LA 17.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.4 / LA -9.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.1 / LA 31.02026-04-26 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 85.9 / LA 31.02026-04-26 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 107.1 / LA 18.02026-04-27 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.0 / LA 43.02026-04-27 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 86.7 / LA -25.02026-04-29 · grounded into double play · KN · ground_ball · EV 99.2 / LA 7.02026-04-29 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.8 / LA 54.02026-04-29 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 63.7 / LA -12.02026-04-29 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.7 / LA 27.02026-05-01 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 108.7 / LA 13.02026-05-01 · field out · KC · fly_ball · EV 101.7 / LA 26.02026-05-01 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.6 / LA 4.02026-05-02 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 101.0 / LA 13.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.1 / LA 39.02026-05-03 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 82.9 / LA 55.02026-05-03 · triple · FC · fly_ball · EV 93.8 / LA 26.02026-05-03 · sac fly · FC · fly_ball · EV 82.7 / LA 43.02026-05-04 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.2 / LA -2.02026-05-04 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.5 / LA 39.02026-05-04 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.1 / LA 38.02026-05-05 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 101.3 / LA 12.02026-05-05 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.8 / LA 30.02026-05-05 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.7 / LA -18.02026-05-06 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 106.3 / LA 8.02026-05-07 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 86.4 / LA 43.02026-05-07 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.2 / LA 2.02026-05-07 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.9 / LA -16.02026-05-07 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 99.8 / LA 32.02026-05-08 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 78.3 / LA -23.02026-05-08 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 101.4 / LA 13.02026-05-08 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 97.9 / LA 39.02026-05-09 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 108.5 / LA 5.02026-05-09 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 89.6 / LA 49.02026-05-10 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 97.5 / LA 10.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 90.0 / LA -11.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.9 / LA 35.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 90.1 / LA 7.02026-05-13 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 77.5 / LA -18.02026-05-14 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 99.4 / LA 12.02026-05-15 · field out · FF · popup · EV 51.3 / LA 44.02026-05-15 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 96.5 / LA 14.02026-05-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.4 / LA 42.02026-05-16 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 100.9 / LA 25.02026-05-16 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 73.7 / LA -10.02026-05-16 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 66.4 / LA 37.02026-05-16 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 82.9 / LA 3.02026-05-17 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 108.0 / LA 25.02026-05-17 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 98.1 / LA 30.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.8 / LA 35.02026-05-18 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 98.1 / LA 23.02026-05-18 · double · FC · fly_ball · EV 101.6 / LA 26.02026-05-19 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 87.4 / LA -4.02026-05-19 · fielders choice · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.6 / LA 4.02026-05-20 · field out · SV · ground_ball · EV 86.1 / LA -6.02026-05-22 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 95.7 / LA 10.02026-05-22 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 102.3 / LA 22.02026-05-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.7 / LA 27.02026-05-23 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 49.5 / LA 38.02026-05-23 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 97.9 / LA 16.02026-05-24 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.6 / LA 26.02026-05-24 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 88.4 / LA 12.02026-05-24 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.7 / LA 9.02026-05-24 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 90.0 / LA -14.02026-05-25 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 105.5 / LA 36.02026-05-25 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.7 / LA 54.02026-05-25 · field out · FF · popup · EV 94.4 / LA 59.02026-05-26 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 36.6 / LA -36.02026-05-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.7 / LA 33.02026-05-26 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 83.1 / LA 32.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.6 / LA 42.02026-05-27 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 83.4 / LA 17.02026-05-31 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 92.6 / LA 19.02026-05-31 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 92.5 / LA 4.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.6 / LA -5.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics SWING PATH Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Swing Path Busch, Michael · aggregate bat-tracking arc Swing tilt 34.5° Length 6.9 ft Ideal path 53% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics ATTACK ANGLE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Attack Angle Busch, Michael · aggregate attack vector Attack angle 15.2° Direction -2.4° MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Busch, Michael · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 67.4 mph Hard swing rate 2% Whiff / swing 21% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Busch, Michael · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 46%46%Chase: 24%24%Whiff: 23%23%Zone contact: 87%87%Contact: 77%77%Hard hit: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.297 vs 0.247 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.001
wOBA Δ+0.017
Sample280 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances574----
Home Runs27----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3530.315 to 0.379+/- 0.032
ISO0.2090.169 to 0.296+/- 0.063
Barrel%8.3%5.8% to 10.6%+/- 2.4%
Hard-Hit%44.5%38.1% to 51.6%+/- 6.8%
K%24.9%20.0% to 29.8%+/- 4.9%
BB%10.7%7.7% to 13.8%+/- 3.0%
BABIP0.2900.245 to 0.343+/- 0.049
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

238 career PA

xwOBA0.247
K%21.2%
BB%6.3%
Barrel4.3%
vs RHP

1083 career PA

xwOBA0.297
K%21.2%
BB%8.7%
Barrel7.9%