Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / CHC · 2026

Busch, Michael

Middle-order power profile with real damage

Primary
0.353 xwOBA
Range
0.315 to 0.379
Live Δ
yes
Team CHC Archetype Impact slugger Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
62
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
59
Defense2 metrics
85
Speed2 metrics
10
Plate skills10 metrics
49
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
xwOBA preseason0.346
xwOBA current pace0.345
xwOBA rolling p500.345
Observed weight67%
xwOBA
0.323 0.334 0.345 0.357 0.368
wOBA
0.333 0.347 0.363 0.378 0.392
ISO
0.152 0.164 0.178 0.191 0.203
K%
20.7% 21.8% 23.1% 24.3% 25.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.3%
70 -18 vs proj
Exit velocity88.2
49
Hard-hit%41.1%
59
xBA0.317
45
xSLG0.566
68
xwOBA0.345
82
BB%14.5%
96 +22 vs proj
Bat speed65.8
10
K%21.9%
52 +16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 1B
89
Range Runs3.1 · 1B
81
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.0 · 1B
6
Sprint Speed25.8 · 1B
14
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-07-16
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.2% · rebadged research
84
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.9% · rebadged research
41
Correct Decisions68.0% · rebadged research
68
Resists FastballwOBA 0.323 · validated
78
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
76
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.291 · borderline
40
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.299 · insufficient sample
10
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.266 · validated thin sample
86
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.371 · insufficient sample
4
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.396 · validated
4
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Busch, Michael · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.345 2026-07-05: 0.3452026-07-06: 0.3432026-07-07: 0.3452026-07-08: 0.3452026-07-09: 0.3452026-07-10: 0.3462026-07-11: 0.3482026-07-12: 0.3462026-07-13: 0.3472026-07-14: 0.3452026-07-15: 0.3452026-07-16: 0.345 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Michael Busch's tools (67) outpace production (79) by -12 points. Primary finding: groundball-heavy approach with the raw power to drive the ball — leaving fly-ball damage on the table. Most actionable fix: elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too Low
+10.7° Current 5° → Target 16°

Elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

187 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Busch, Michael · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 15% of plotted batted ballsPull 15%Center field third: 67% of plotted batted ballsCenter 67%Right field third: 18% of plotted batted ballsOppo 18% LF 355 CF 400 RF 353 2026-03-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.8 / LA 60.02026-03-15 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 107.0 / LA -19.02026-03-17 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 58.2 / LA -16.02026-03-17 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.9 / LA 25.02026-03-20 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 91.2 / LA -35.02026-03-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 86.5 / LA -12.02026-03-20 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 105.3 / LA 8.02026-03-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 73.8 / LA -26.02026-03-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 89.7 / LA -32.02026-03-22 · field out · FC · popup · EV 102.8 / LA 76.02026-03-23 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 86.3 / LA 5.02026-03-23 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 110.9 / LA 28.02026-03-23 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 55.7 / LA -50.02026-03-26 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 105.4 / LA 17.02026-03-26 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 77.4 / LA 32.02026-03-26 · double · FF · ground_ball · EV 77.6 / LA -23.02026-03-26 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 75.8 / LA -23.02026-03-28 · field error · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.2 / LA 63.02026-03-28 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 72.2 / LA 15.02026-03-28 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.6 / LA 7.02026-03-28 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.8 / LA -5.02026-03-29 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 92.2 / LA 62.02026-03-29 · field out · SV · ground_ball · EV 98.7 / LA -8.02026-03-30 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 98.1 / LA -5.02026-03-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 87.4 / LA -7.02026-03-30 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 86.3 / LA 23.02026-03-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.6 / LA 28.02026-03-31 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 59.6 / LA -20.02026-03-31 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 74.3 / LA -33.02026-04-01 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 104.7 / LA 8.02026-04-01 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 77.1 / LA 6.02026-04-03 · double play · SL · line_drive · EV 95.5 / LA 8.02026-04-03 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 96.4 / LA 21.02026-04-03 · field out · FF · popup · EV 84.8 / LA 67.02026-04-05 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 79.7 / LA -1.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.4 / LA 55.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.2 / LA 51.02026-04-05 · field out · FC · popup · EV 87.6 / LA 76.02026-04-05 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 83.3 / LA -3.02026-04-06 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 89.4 / LA 32.02026-04-06 · sac fly · SL · fly_ball · EV 92.8 / LA 43.02026-04-06 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 88.7 / LA 2.02026-04-07 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 91.9 / LA 42.02026-04-07 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 93.4 / LA 40.02026-04-07 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.0 / LA 31.02026-04-07 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.8 / LA 40.02026-04-08 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 65.8 / LA -12.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 52.3 / LA 2.02026-04-08 · field error · SI · ground_ball · EV 48.8 / LA -65.02026-04-10 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 80.5 / LA 57.02026-04-10 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 97.2 / LA -3.02026-04-10 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 101.4 / LA 24.02026-04-11 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.4 / LA -6.02026-04-12 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 68.2 / LA 23.02026-04-14 · single · KC · ground_ball · EV 88.9 / LA -1.02026-04-14 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 26.5 / LA -49.02026-04-14 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 63.5 / LA 16.02026-04-15 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 84.1 / LA -20.02026-04-15 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 81.9 / LA -35.02026-04-15 · field out · EP · ground_ball · EV 39.5 / LA 7.02026-04-15 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 34.4 / LA -24.02026-04-17 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 97.8 / LA 0.02026-04-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 75.7 / LA 53.02026-04-17 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 90.7 / LA -7.02026-04-18 · field out · FF · popup · EV 85.1 / LA 75.02026-04-18 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 91.4 / LA 19.02026-04-18 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 74.9 / LA 26.02026-04-19 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 89.8 / LA -4.02026-04-19 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.3 / LA 3.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.0 / LA 3.02026-04-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.1 / LA 43.02026-04-20 · single · KC · line_drive · EV 79.7 / LA 18.02026-04-20 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 61.4 / LA -50.02026-04-21 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 83.5 / LA 31.02026-04-21 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.2 / LA -12.02026-04-21 · single · SI · fly_ball · EV 67.0 / LA 30.02026-04-22 · single · FS · fly_ball · EV 70.6 / LA 32.02026-04-22 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.8 / LA 34.02026-04-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 81.7 / LA -40.02026-04-23 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.3 / LA -25.02026-04-23 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 106.0 / LA 25.02026-04-23 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 68.7 / LA -26.02026-04-23 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 90.3 / LA 6.02026-04-24 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 104.7 / LA 20.02026-04-24 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 102.6 / LA 8.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 67.0 / LA 44.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.1 / LA 31.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.4 / LA -9.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · popup · EV 81.7 / LA 77.02026-04-25 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 103.6 / LA 17.02026-04-26 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 107.1 / LA 18.02026-04-26 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 85.9 / LA 31.02026-04-27 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 86.7 / LA -25.02026-04-27 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.0 / LA 43.02026-04-29 · grounded into double play · KN · ground_ball · EV 99.2 / LA 7.02026-04-29 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.8 / LA 54.02026-04-29 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 63.7 / LA -12.02026-04-29 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.7 / LA 27.02026-05-01 · field out · KC · fly_ball · EV 101.7 / LA 26.02026-05-01 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 108.7 / LA 13.02026-05-01 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.6 / LA 4.02026-05-02 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 101.0 / LA 13.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.1 / LA 39.02026-05-03 · sac fly · FC · fly_ball · EV 82.7 / LA 43.02026-05-03 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 82.9 / LA 55.02026-05-03 · triple · FC · fly_ball · EV 93.8 / LA 26.02026-05-04 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.1 / LA 38.02026-05-04 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.5 / LA 39.02026-05-04 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.2 / LA -2.02026-05-05 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 101.3 / LA 12.02026-05-05 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.8 / LA 30.02026-05-05 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.7 / LA -18.02026-05-06 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 106.3 / LA 8.02026-05-07 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.9 / LA -16.02026-05-07 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 99.8 / LA 32.02026-05-07 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 86.4 / LA 43.02026-05-07 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.2 / LA 2.02026-05-08 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 97.9 / LA 39.02026-05-08 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 101.4 / LA 13.02026-05-08 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 78.3 / LA -23.02026-05-09 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 108.5 / LA 5.02026-05-09 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 89.6 / LA 49.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 90.0 / LA -11.02026-05-10 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 97.5 / LA 10.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 90.1 / LA 7.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.9 / LA 35.02026-05-13 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 77.5 / LA -18.02026-05-14 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 99.4 / LA 12.02026-05-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.4 / LA 42.02026-05-15 · field out · FF · popup · EV 51.3 / LA 44.02026-05-15 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 96.5 / LA 14.02026-05-16 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 73.7 / LA -10.02026-05-16 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 66.4 / LA 37.02026-05-16 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 82.9 / LA 3.02026-05-16 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 100.9 / LA 25.02026-05-17 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 108.0 / LA 25.02026-05-17 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 98.1 / LA 30.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.8 / LA 35.02026-05-18 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 98.1 / LA 23.02026-05-18 · double · FC · fly_ball · EV 101.6 / LA 26.02026-05-19 · fielders choice · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.6 / LA 4.02026-05-19 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 87.4 / LA -4.02026-05-20 · field out · SV · ground_ball · EV 86.1 / LA -6.02026-05-22 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 95.7 / LA 10.02026-05-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.7 / LA 27.02026-05-22 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 102.3 / LA 22.02026-05-23 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 97.9 / LA 16.02026-05-23 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 49.5 / LA 38.02026-05-24 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 88.4 / LA 12.02026-05-24 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 90.0 / LA -14.02026-05-24 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.7 / LA 9.02026-05-24 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.6 / LA 26.02026-05-25 · field out · FF · popup · EV 94.4 / LA 59.02026-05-25 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 105.5 / LA 36.02026-05-25 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.7 / LA 54.02026-05-26 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 83.1 / LA 32.02026-05-26 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 36.6 / LA -36.02026-05-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.7 / LA 33.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.6 / LA 42.02026-05-27 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 83.4 / LA 17.02026-05-31 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 92.5 / LA 4.02026-05-31 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 92.6 / LA 19.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.6 / LA -5.02026-06-04 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 65.7 / LA 17.02026-06-04 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.2 / LA -3.02026-06-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.6 / LA 39.02026-06-07 · double play · SI · line_drive · EV 86.2 / LA 10.02026-06-07 · field out · FF · popup · EV 79.7 / LA 59.02026-06-07 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 49.3 / LA -71.02026-06-20 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 84.8 / LA 44.02026-06-20 · grounded into double play · FS · ground_ball · EV 89.0 / LA -13.02026-06-20 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 99.9 / LA 11.02026-06-20 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 98.5 / LA 47.02026-06-24 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 101.6 / LA 20.02026-06-24 · home run · FC · line_drive · EV 108.2 / LA 25.02026-06-24 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 76.4 / LA -19.02026-06-24 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.2 / LA -12.02026-06-26 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 97.1 / LA 26.02026-06-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 75.2 / LA 41.02026-06-26 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.9 / LA -10.02026-06-30 · field out · FF · popup · EV 93.3 / LA 62.02026-06-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.7 / LA 26.02026-06-30 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 104.5 / LA 35.02026-07-01 · single · FA · ground_ball · EV 96.2 / LA -9.02026-07-01 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 86.7 / LA 25.02026-07-01 · home run · EP · fly_ball · EV 102.1 / LA 31.02026-07-01 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 78.9 / LA -22.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Busch, Michael · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 67.4 mph Hard swing rate 2% Whiff / swing 21% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Busch, Michael · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 46%46%Chase: 24%24%Whiff: 23%23%Zone contact: 86%86%Contact: 77%77%Hard hit: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.297 vs 0.247 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.008
wOBA Δ+0.010
Sample442 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances574----
Home Runs27----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3530.315 to 0.379+/- 0.032
ISO0.2090.169 to 0.296+/- 0.063
Barrel%8.3%5.8% to 10.6%+/- 2.4%
Hard-Hit%44.5%38.1% to 51.6%+/- 6.8%
K%24.9%20.0% to 29.8%+/- 4.9%
BB%10.7%7.7% to 13.8%+/- 3.0%
BABIP0.2900.245 to 0.343+/- 0.049
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

238 career PA

xwOBA0.247
K%21.2%
BB%6.3%
Barrel4.3%
vs RHP

1083 career PA

xwOBA0.297
K%21.2%
BB%8.7%
Barrel7.9%