Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CHC · 2026

Assad, Javier

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.2% K%
Range
15.2% to 24.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team CHC Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
53
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
42
Arsenal7 metrics
35
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.36
ERA current pace3.63
ERA rolling p503.90
Observed weight62%
ERA
2.60 3.22 3.90 4.59 5.21
FIP
3.83 4.27 4.76 5.24 5.68
K%
15.3% 16.4% 17.6% 18.8% 19.9%
BB%
6.3% 7.0% 7.7% 8.4% 9.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.18
76
ERA3.63
65
BB%7.1%
76 +27 vs proj
K%16.8%
14 -16 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.324
35 +26 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.8%
60 +29 vs proj
Fastball velo93.4
32
Hard-hit allowed44.2%
14
Whiff%14.7%
2
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Mithrandir Stuff+102
45
Sinker Stuff+102
45
Changeup Stuff+102
51
Curveball Stuff+98
7
Cutter Stuff+99
28
Fastball Stuff+104
61
Slider Stuff+93
5
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 42%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Assad, Javier · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.324 2026-09-13: 0.3282026-09-14: 0.3282026-09-18: 0.3292026-09-19: 0.3302026-09-20: 0.3302026-09-21: 0.3302026-09-22: 0.3302026-09-23: 0.3302026-09-24: 0.3292026-09-25: 0.3292026-09-26: 0.3242026-09-27: 0.324 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Assad, Javier · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 15%15%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Assad, Javier · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 42.0%4-Seam Fastball: 18.8%Cutter: 12.3%Sweeper: 8.2%Changeup: 7.9%Curveball: 7.2% SI42% · 93 mphprimary pitch SI 42%FF 19%FC 12%ST 8%CH 8%CU 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Assad, Javier · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 42% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 93.4 mphSI93 mph4-Seam Fastball: 19% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 93.5 mphFF94 mphCutter: 12% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 88.9 mphFC89 mphSweeper: 8% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 81.7 mphST82 mphChangeup: 8% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 86.0 mphCH86 mphCurveball: 7% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 77.6 mphCU78 mphSlider: 4% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 85.3 mphSL85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 42.5% 376 102 qualified
FB 17.4% 154 104 limited sample
FC 14.1% 125 99 limited sample
SL 10.5% 93 93 limited sample
CH 8.5% 75 102 limited sample
CB 7.0% 62 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 41%, Cutter 22%, Sweeper 13%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.92
K% Δ-0.024
Sample96.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings72.2----
Batters Faced313----
K%19.2%15.2% to 24.3%+/- 4.6%
BB%9.0%6.7% to 11.8%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%16.7%13.8% to 22.7%+/- 4.5%
HR/91.510.90 to 2.06+/- 0.58
xwOBA Against0.3610.300 to 0.399+/- 0.050
Barrel% Allowed8.7%6.0% to 11.5%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.552.42 to 6.02+/- 1.80
FIP4.853.55 to 6.11+/- 1.28
WHIP1.4921.120 to 1.703+/- 0.291
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

724 career BF

xwOBA0.340
K%17.9%
BB%9.6%
Barrel8.4%
vs RHH

744 career BF

xwOBA0.325
K%17.4%
BB%8.3%
Barrel7.5%