Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CHC · 2026

Assad, Javier

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.2% K%
Range
15.2% to 24.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team CHC Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 29 Status Out / inactive
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.36
ERA current pace5.88
ERA rolling p504.87
Observed weight34%
ERA
3.54 4.17 4.87 5.58 6.21
FIP
3.65 4.10 4.60 5.10 5.55
K%
14.0% 15.5% 17.3% 19.0% 20.6%
BB%
6.0% 6.9% 7.9% 9.0% 9.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%6.5%
80 +35 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.2%
70 +33 vs proj
Fastball velo93.1
28
Hard-hit allowed54.2%
1
K%13.8%
4 -22 vs proj
Whiff%14.8%
3
xwOBA allowed0.356
13
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+103
61
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 42%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Assad, Javier · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3552026-05-19: 0.3552026-05-21: 0.3552026-05-23: 0.3552026-05-24: 0.3562026-05-25: 0.3562026-05-26: 0.3562026-05-28: 0.3562026-05-29: 0.3562026-05-30: 0.3562026-05-31: 0.3562026-06-01: 0.356 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Assad, Javier · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 31%31%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 15%15%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 54%54% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Assad, Javier · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 41.7%Cutter: 16.7%4-Seam Fastball: 13.0%Changeup: 9.0%Curveball: 7.3%Sweeper: 6.8% MIX SI 42%FC 17%FF 13%CH 9%CU 7%ST 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Assad, Javier · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB 0.4, IVB 1.7SIFC: HB 0.2, IVB 2.5FCFF: HB -0.3, IVB 1.2FFCH: HB -1.1, IVB 2.9CHCU: HB 0.9, IVB 4.5CUST: HB -1.3, IVB 3.7STSL: HB -0.5, IVB 3.2SL horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 42.6% 178 103 limited sample
FC 17.2% 72 102 limited sample
FB 12.9% 54 103 limited sample
SL 11.2% 47 97 limited sample
CH 8.9% 37 106 limited sample
CB 7.2% 30 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 41%, Cutter 22%, Sweeper 13%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.33
K% Δ-0.054
Sample28.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings71.4----
Batters Faced309----
K%19.2%15.2% to 24.3%+/- 4.6%
BB%9.0%6.7% to 11.8%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%16.7%13.8% to 22.7%+/- 4.5%
HR/91.510.90 to 2.06+/- 0.58
xwOBA Against0.3610.300 to 0.399+/- 0.050
Barrel% Allowed8.7%6.0% to 11.5%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.552.42 to 6.02+/- 1.80
FIP4.853.55 to 6.11+/- 1.28
WHIP1.4921.120 to 1.703+/- 0.291
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

724 career BF

xwOBA0.340
K%17.9%
BB%9.6%
Barrel8.4%
vs RHH

744 career BF

xwOBA0.325
K%17.4%
BB%8.3%
Barrel7.5%