Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CHC · 2026

Assad, Javier

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.2% K%
Range
15.2% to 24.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team CHC Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
48
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
34
Arsenal7 metrics
42
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.36
ERA current pace4.11
ERA rolling p504.23
Observed weight52%
ERA
2.96 3.56 4.23 4.90 5.50
FIP
3.97 4.40 4.88 5.35 5.78
K%
14.5% 15.8% 17.2% 18.6% 19.8%
BB%
5.8% 6.5% 7.4% 8.2% 9.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.17
73
ERA4.11
47
BB%6.2%
85 +40 vs proj
K%15.4%
8 -20 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.336
28 +18 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.5%
38
Fastball velo93.1
27
Hard-hit allowed49.0%
3
Whiff%12.5%
1
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Mithrandir Stuff+103
56
Sinker Stuff+102
51
Changeup Stuff+104
69
Curveball Stuff+97
2
Cutter Stuff+100
35
Fastball Stuff+106
78
Slider Stuff+93
6
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 40%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Assad, Javier · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.336 2026-07-07: 0.3322026-07-08: 0.3322026-07-09: 0.3322026-07-10: 0.3322026-07-11: 0.3322026-07-12: 0.3322026-07-13: 0.3362026-07-14: 0.3362026-07-15: 0.3362026-07-16: 0.3362026-07-17: 0.3362026-07-18: 0.336 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Assad, Javier · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 12%12%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 49%49% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Assad, Javier · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 40.2%4-Seam Fastball: 19.2%Cutter: 14.7%Changeup: 7.3%Sweeper: 7.3%Curveball: 6.8% SI40% · 93 mphprimary pitch SI 40%FF 19%FC 15%CH 7%ST 7%CU 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Assad, Javier · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 40% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 93.1 mphSI93 mph4-Seam Fastball: 19% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 93.2 mphFF93 mphCutter: 15% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 88.3 mphFC88 mphChangeup: 7% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 85.9 mphCH86 mphSweeper: 7% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 81.2 mphST81 mphCurveball: 7% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 77.6 mphCU78 mphSlider: 5% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 85.2 mphSL85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 43.5% 272 102 qualified
FB 16.6% 104 106 limited sample
FC 15.0% 94 100 limited sample
SL 10.4% 65 93 limited sample
CH 7.8% 49 104 limited sample
CB 6.7% 42 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 41%, Cutter 22%, Sweeper 13%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.44
K% Δ-0.037
Sample63.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings72.2----
Batters Faced313----
K%19.2%15.2% to 24.3%+/- 4.6%
BB%9.0%6.7% to 11.8%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%16.7%13.8% to 22.7%+/- 4.5%
HR/91.510.90 to 2.06+/- 0.58
xwOBA Against0.3610.300 to 0.399+/- 0.050
Barrel% Allowed8.7%6.0% to 11.5%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.552.42 to 6.02+/- 1.80
FIP4.853.55 to 6.11+/- 1.28
WHIP1.4921.120 to 1.703+/- 0.291
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

724 career BF

xwOBA0.340
K%17.9%
BB%9.6%
Barrel8.4%
vs RHH

744 career BF

xwOBA0.325
K%17.4%
BB%8.3%
Barrel7.5%