Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / CHC · 2026
Amaya, Miguel
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team CHC
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.312 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.290 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.304 |
| Observed weight | 35% |
xwOBA
0.273
0.288
0.304
0.321
0.336
wOBA
0.379
0.406
0.437
0.468
0.495
ISO
0.116
0.138
0.162
0.187
0.209
K%
14.3%
16.3%
18.6%
20.9%
22.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%10.1%
66
+44 vs proj
Barrel%5.9%
61
+33 vs proj
Bat speed68.2
30
Exit velocity86.7
28
Hard-hit%31.2%
17
K%21.0%
56
-16 vs proj
xBA0.257
6
xSLG0.404
16
xwOBA0.290
32
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.7 · C
16
Catcher Throwing0.4 · C
52
Framing Runs-0.3 · C
47
Pop Time1.9 · C
57
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.0 · C
6
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.4% · rebadged research
80
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.7% · rebadged research
74
Correct Decisions69.4% · rebadged research
80
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.300 · borderline
21
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · insufficient sample
73
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.285 · validated thin sample
26
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.326 · insufficient sample
70
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339 · validated
53
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.387 · validated
6
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
84
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
73 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.014 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.133 |
| Sample | 119 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 292 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 8 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.304 | 0.268 to 0.347 | +/- 0.039 |
| ISO | 0.129 | 0.083 to 0.215 | +/- 0.066 |
| Barrel% | 3.6% | 1.7% to 6.7% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 34.1% | 29.8% to 41.9% | +/- 6.1% |
| K% | 18.3% | 14.3% to 26.6% | +/- 6.1% |
| BB% | 6.4% | 4.5% to 9.4% | +/- 2.5% |
| BABIP | 0.279 | 0.237 to 0.324 | +/- 0.043 |
vs LHP
181 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.207 |
| K% | 13.4% |
| BB% | 4.4% |
| Barrel | 3.1% |
vs RHP
481 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.212 |
| K% | 13.0% |
| BB% | 4.1% |
| Barrel | 2.9% |