Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CHC · 2026

Brown, Ben

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
24.5% K%
Range
20.6% to 32.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team CHC Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 27 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
80
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
69
Arsenal5 metrics
42
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.20
ERA current pace1.85
ERA rolling p502.94
Observed weight54%
ERA
1.74 2.31 2.94 3.56 4.13
FIP
1.82 2.40 3.04 3.68 4.26
K%
21.5% 23.1% 24.8% 26.6% 28.1%
BB%
5.9% 6.6% 7.4% 8.2% 8.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.02
89
ERA1.85
96
BB%7.5%
68
K%24.6%
65
xwOBA allowed0.279
83 +20 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.5%
53 +26 vs proj
Fastball velo96.4
79
Hard-hit allowed44.1%
17
Whiff%25.3%
68
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Curveball Stuff+102
51
Fastball Stuff+103
50
Mithrandir Stuff+101
45
Changeup Stuff+100
36
Sinker Stuff+99
29
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Brown, Ben · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.279 2026-07-06: 0.2792026-07-07: 0.2792026-07-08: 0.2792026-07-09: 0.2792026-07-10: 0.2792026-07-11: 0.2792026-07-12: 0.2792026-07-13: 0.2792026-07-14: 0.2792026-07-15: 0.2792026-07-16: 0.2792026-07-17: 0.279 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Brown, Ben · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Brown, Ben · 2026 arsenal snapshot Knuckle Curve: 37.1%4-Seam Fastball: 36.5%Sinker: 20.8%Changeup: 5.6% KC37% · 87 mphprimary pitch KC 37%FF 36%SI 21%CH 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Brown, Ben · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Knuckle Curve: 37% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 86.8 mphKC87 mph4-Seam Fastball: 36% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 96.4 mphFF96 mphSinker: 21% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 96.5 mphSI96 mphChangeup: 6% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 90.1 mphCH90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 37.4% 253 103 qualified
CB 36.8% 249 102 qualified
SI 19.6% 133 99 limited sample
CH 6.2% 42 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.311 vs 0.285 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 55%, Knuckle Curve 40%, Changeup 5%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.42
K% Δ+0.002
Sample69.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings69.8----
Batters Faced305----
K%24.5%20.6% to 32.6%+/- 6.0%
BB%7.6%5.3% to 9.8%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%26.8%22.8% to 32.1%+/- 4.6%
HR/91.280.84 to 2.07+/- 0.61
xwOBA Against0.3020.269 to 0.353+/- 0.042
Barrel% Allowed9.2%5.5% to 13.8%+/- 4.1%
ERA4.273.19 to 6.55+/- 1.68
FIP3.742.63 to 6.08+/- 1.72
WHIP1.2441.056 to 1.570+/- 0.257
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

359 career BF

xwOBA0.311
K%23.7%
BB%7.3%
Barrel12.9%
vs RHH

394 career BF

xwOBA0.285
K%22.2%
BB%5.9%
Barrel8.7%