Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / CHC · 2026
Swanson, Dansby
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team CHC
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 32
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.324 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.302 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.312 |
| Observed weight | 53% |
xwOBA
0.282
0.296
0.312
0.328
0.342
wOBA
0.281
0.299
0.319
0.339
0.357
ISO
0.110
0.126
0.143
0.160
0.176
K%
21.5%
22.9%
24.5%
26.0%
27.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%12.3%
83
+39 vs proj
Barrel%4.5%
42
-25 vs proj
Bat speed69.0
41
Exit velocity89.8
66
Hard-hit%44.1%
68
K%23.8%
38
xBA0.278
15
xSLG0.497
46
xwOBA0.302
41
-28 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · SS
80
Arm Strength85.1 · SS
43
Outs Above Avg5.0 · SS
96
Range Runs3.9 · SS
92
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.3 · SS
94
Bolts1.0 · SS
17
Sprint Speed28.1 · SS
72
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.4% · rebadged research
80
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 18.7% · rebadged research
92
Correct Decisions71.7% · rebadged research
92
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110
94
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.265 · borderline
89
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.268 · insufficient sample
79
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.248 · validated thin sample
97
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · insufficient sample
70
Resists FastballwOBA 0.355 · validated
22
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.385 · validated
7
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
149 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.029 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.012 |
| Sample | 244 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 602 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 20 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.331 | 0.281 to 0.377 | +/- 0.048 |
| ISO | 0.157 | 0.099 to 0.222 | +/- 0.062 |
| Barrel% | 6.3% | 4.4% to 8.4% | +/- 2.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 43.6% | 38.6% to 50.0% | +/- 5.7% |
| K% | 24.4% | 20.5% to 30.4% | +/- 4.9% |
| BB% | 8.4% | 6.3% to 11.4% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.294 | 0.257 to 0.347 | +/- 0.045 |
vs LHP
1208 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.300 |
| K% | 22.1% |
| BB% | 7.5% |
| Barrel | 6.2% |
vs RHP
4367 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.282 |
| K% | 22.2% |
| BB% | 7.4% |
| Barrel | 5.5% |