Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / CHC · 2026
Swanson, Dansby
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team CHC
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 32
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
51
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.324 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.299 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.308 |
| Observed weight | 63% |
xwOBA
0.282
0.294
0.308
0.322
0.334
wOBA
0.309
0.324
0.341
0.357
0.372
ISO
0.150
0.163
0.178
0.193
0.206
K%
21.9%
23.1%
24.5%
25.8%
27.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.8%
46
-23 vs proj
Exit velocity89.9
71
Hard-hit%43.6%
69
xBA0.291
21
xSLG0.525
55
xwOBA0.299
42
-31 vs proj
BB%9.9%
66
+18 vs proj
Bat speed69.6
49
K%24.0%
41
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · SS
73
Arm Strength85.6 · SS
43
Outs Above Avg9.0 · SS
98
Range Runs7.1 · SS
98
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.4 · SS
95
Bolts1.0 · SS
15
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
93
Sprint Speed28.3 · SS
77
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.4% · rebadged research
80
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 18.7% · rebadged research
92
Correct Decisions72.1% · rebadged research
92
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline112
94
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · borderline
64
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · insufficient sample
88
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278 · validated thin sample
56
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · insufficient sample
31
Resists FastballwOBA 0.375 · validated
7
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.378 · validated
12
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
179 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.032 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.010 |
| Sample | 375 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 602 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 20 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.331 | 0.281 to 0.377 | +/- 0.048 |
| ISO | 0.157 | 0.099 to 0.222 | +/- 0.062 |
| Barrel% | 6.3% | 4.4% to 8.4% | +/- 2.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 43.6% | 38.6% to 50.0% | +/- 5.7% |
| K% | 24.4% | 20.5% to 30.4% | +/- 4.9% |
| BB% | 8.4% | 6.3% to 11.4% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.294 | 0.257 to 0.347 | +/- 0.045 |
vs LHP
1208 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.300 |
| K% | 22.1% |
| BB% | 7.5% |
| Barrel | 6.2% |
vs RHP
4367 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.282 |
| K% | 22.2% |
| BB% | 7.4% |
| Barrel | 5.5% |