Mithrandir Metrics
BAL American League East Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Club dossier / American League / American League East

Baltimore Orioles

85.3-76.7 with P10-P90 wins 75-95. 80.9 avg opponent projected wins.

Projected W
85.3-76.7
Live pace
76.8
Delta
-8.4
Record 46-51 Run diff -19 Generated 2026-07-16T11:44:44.237747+00:00
Rolling projection

Preseason / pace / Bayesian update

Preseason85.0
Current pace76.8
Rolling p5079.9
Observed weight62%
Rolling wins
70.2 74.8 79.9 85.1 89.7
MOVE -5.1 wins PACE behind BULLPEN FIP 4.31
October path

Projection odds

Division17.3%
Playoffs60.2%
Pennant8.9%
World Series4.4%
Run environment

Team talent

wOBA0.272
Rotation FIP4.32
Bullpen FIP4.31
Run diff42.8
Depth chart

Projected lineup

SlotPlayerPAValue
CRutschman, Adley4582.99
1BAlonso, Pete64810.19
2BHolliday, Jackson5571.26
SSHenderson, Gunnar6009.83
3BWestburg, Jordan4301.79
LFWard, Taylor6154.38
CFCowser, Colton4480.51
RFO'Neill, Tyler3611.65
DHMountcastle, Ryan4390.51