Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 44%, Split-Finger 18%, Curveball 16%.
Pitcher projection / BAL · 2026
Young, Brandon
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team BAL
Archetype Volatile contact
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.48 |
| ERA current pace | 3.47 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.04 |
| Observed weight | 44% |
ERA
2.87
3.42
4.04
4.65
5.20
FIP
3.69
4.08
4.50
4.93
5.31
K%
15.2%
16.7%
18.4%
20.1%
21.6%
BB%
6.7%
7.5%
8.5%
9.4%
10.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%9.0%
45
Barrel allowed8.0%
46
Fastball velo93.9
42
Hard-hit allowed40.9%
41
K%17.5%
16
-24 vs proj
Whiff%19.9%
23
xwOBA allowed0.327
40
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+104
67
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
5Pitches
2026Season
41%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 53.0% | 257 | 106 | qualified |
| SL | 17.9% | 87 | 96 | limited sample |
| SI | 16.3% | 79 | 100 | limited sample |
| CB | 12.8% | 62 | 103 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -1.38 |
| K% Δ | -0.035 |
| Sample | 42.7 IP |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 139.2 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 624 | -- | -- |
| K% | 21.0% | 14.1% to 24.2% | +/- 5.0% |
| BB% | 8.2% | 5.5% to 10.2% | +/- 2.3% |
| Whiff% | 21.3% | 15.7% to 24.0% | +/- 4.1% |
| HR/9 | 1.49 | 0.77 to 2.21 | +/- 0.72 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.324 | 0.259 to 0.356 | +/- 0.049 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.5% | 5.6% to 11.3% | +/- 2.8% |
| ERA | 4.85 | 3.50 to 6.76 | +/- 1.63 |
| FIP | 4.78 | 3.35 to 5.63 | +/- 1.14 |
| WHIP | 1.390 | 1.101 to 1.760 | +/- 0.329 |
vs LHH
144 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.239 |
| K% | 13.6% |
| BB% | 7.3% |
| Barrel | 7.5% |
vs RHH
112 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.225 |
| K% | 15.5% |
| BB% | 5.2% |
| Barrel | 7.2% |