Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / BAL · 2026

O'Neill, Tyler

Middle-order power profile with real damage

Primary
0.322 xwOBA
Range
0.275 to 0.376
Live Δ
yes
Team BAL Archetype Impact slugger Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.320
xwOBA current pace0.274
xwOBA rolling p500.304
Observed weight35%
xwOBA
0.266 0.284 0.304 0.324 0.342
wOBA
0.213 0.238 0.265 0.292 0.317
ISO
0.103 0.125 0.150 0.175 0.198
K%
21.5% 23.5% 25.8% 28.0% 30.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%10.1%
66
Barrel%3.4%
26 -50 vs proj
Bat speed70.4
62
Exit velocity87.8
41
Hard-hit%38.2%
42 -28 vs proj
K%24.4%
36
xBA0.256
6
xSLG0.434
25
xwOBA0.274
20 -41 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.1 · RF
17
Arm Strength92.2 · RF
51
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · RF
20
Range Runs-1.1 · RF
38
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.8 · RF
65
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.7% · rebadged research
56
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.8% · rebadged research
65
Correct Decisions66.6% · rebadged research
52
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · borderline
56
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · insufficient sample
87
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.264 · validated thin sample
83
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · insufficient sample
67
Resists FastballwOBA 0.308 · validated
94
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.366 · validated
29
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
62
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA O'Neill, Tyler · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.3062026-05-19: 0.2962026-05-21: 0.2882026-05-23: 0.2772026-05-24: 0.2772026-05-25: 0.2712026-05-26: 0.2762026-05-28: 0.2772026-05-29: 0.2772026-05-30: 0.2742026-05-31: 0.2742026-06-01: 0.274 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

75 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart O'Neill, Tyler · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 20% of plotted batted ballsPull 20%Center field third: 65% of plotted batted ballsCenter 65%Right field third: 15% of plotted batted ballsOppo 15% LF 333 CF 400 RF 318 2026-03-19 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 88.1 / LA 51.02026-03-19 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 46.7 / LA -51.02026-03-21 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 99.1 / LA 2.02026-03-21 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.7 / LA 3.02026-03-22 · double · SL · fly_ball · EV 101.5 / LA 23.02026-03-22 · field out · FF · popup · EV 89.7 / LA 68.02026-03-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 79.5 / LA 33.02026-03-23 · grounded into double play · FC · ground_ball · EV 87.4 / LA -7.02026-03-26 · field out · FF · popup · EV 76.7 / LA 59.02026-03-26 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.4 / LA -10.02026-03-28 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.9 / LA -21.02026-03-29 · field out · FF · popup · EV 89.5 / LA 77.02026-03-29 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 109.0 / LA 27.02026-03-29 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 59.7 / LA -9.02026-03-30 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 76.6 / LA 13.02026-03-30 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 98.5 / LA 38.02026-03-30 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.6 / LA 2.02026-03-31 · field out · SI · popup · EV 67.4 / LA 70.02026-04-04 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 102.1 / LA 10.02026-04-04 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.7 / LA 29.02026-04-05 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 77.8 / LA 18.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · popup · EV 80.0 / LA 72.02026-04-06 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.0 / LA -19.02026-04-06 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 72.4 / LA 11.02026-04-06 · single · FC · fly_ball · EV 79.9 / LA 48.02026-04-06 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.4 / LA 6.02026-04-07 · single · SI · fly_ball · EV 83.6 / LA 42.02026-04-07 · field out · FF · popup · EV 95.4 / LA 64.02026-04-07 · single · CH · fly_ball · EV 78.9 / LA 30.02026-04-08 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 68.9 / LA 10.02026-04-08 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 92.4 / LA 53.02026-04-25 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 101.7 / LA 44.02026-04-25 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 102.7 / LA 17.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.7 / LA 57.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.0 / LA 49.02026-04-30 · field out · KC · line_drive · EV 104.9 / LA 17.02026-04-30 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 98.1 / LA 10.02026-05-02 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 89.9 / LA 45.02026-05-03 · field error · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.6 / LA -24.02026-05-03 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.4 / LA 48.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.5 / LA 39.02026-05-06 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 70.9 / LA 8.02026-05-07 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.3 / LA 42.02026-05-07 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 91.3 / LA 15.02026-05-07 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 102.7 / LA -1.02026-05-08 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 60.3 / LA -36.02026-05-08 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 82.0 / LA 36.02026-05-08 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 71.9 / LA 1.02026-05-09 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 82.0 / LA -3.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 81.4 / LA 30.02026-05-12 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 89.8 / LA 25.02026-05-12 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 83.4 / LA -19.02026-05-15 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 96.9 / LA 36.02026-05-15 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 97.7 / LA 28.02026-05-16 · field out · FF · popup · EV 80.2 / LA 55.02026-05-16 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 103.0 / LA -3.02026-05-16 · home run · FF · line_drive · EV 110.9 / LA 21.02026-05-17 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 84.7 / LA 34.02026-05-17 · single · SL · fly_ball · EV 73.4 / LA 35.02026-05-17 · field out · SI · popup · EV 90.9 / LA 79.02026-05-18 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 95.7 / LA 18.02026-05-18 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 92.4 / LA 30.02026-05-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.7 / LA 37.02026-05-18 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.7 / LA -16.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 86.5 / LA 48.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 70.0 / LA 44.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 75.2 / LA -15.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 94.8 / LA 34.02026-05-22 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 92.1 / LA 58.02026-05-22 · grounded into double play · FS · ground_ball · EV 67.8 / LA -18.02026-05-24 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 97.4 / LA 30.02026-05-24 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 61.2 / LA 34.02026-05-25 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 54.2 / LA -66.02026-05-25 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 76.3 / LA 24.02026-05-27 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 96.8 / LA 16.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile O'Neill, Tyler · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 46%46%Chase: 28%28%Whiff: 26%26%Zone contact: 85%85%Contact: 74%74%Hard hit: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Projected to do more damage vs lefties (0.281 vs 0.246 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
3
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
4
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.048
wOBA Δ-0.057
Sample119 PA

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances361----
Home Runs16----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3220.275 to 0.376+/- 0.051
ISO0.1990.151 to 0.294+/- 0.071
Barrel%7.1%5.4% to 11.1%+/- 2.8%
Hard-Hit%44.8%36.9% to 53.5%+/- 8.3%
K%26.7%22.3% to 34.3%+/- 6.0%
BB%10.3%7.4% to 13.8%+/- 3.2%
BABIP0.2710.192 to 0.328+/- 0.068
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

610 career PA

xwOBA0.281
K%20.6%
BB%10.8%
Barrel8.5%
vs RHP

1828 career PA

xwOBA0.246
K%22.4%
BB%7.6%
Barrel5.8%