Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / BAL · 2026

O'Neill, Tyler

Middle-order power profile with real damage

Primary
0.322 xwOBA
Range
0.275 to 0.376
Live Δ
yes
Team BAL Archetype Impact slugger Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
60
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
59
Defense4 metrics
31
Speed1 metrics
65
Plate skills10 metrics
57
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
xwOBA preseason0.320
xwOBA current pace0.309
xwOBA rolling p500.315
Observed weight46%
xwOBA
0.281 0.297 0.315 0.333 0.349
wOBA
0.262 0.283 0.305 0.328 0.349
ISO
0.131 0.151 0.173 0.195 0.215
K%
23.5% 25.2% 27.2% 29.2% 31.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.9%
64
Exit velocity89.8
71
Hard-hit%43.8%
70
xBA0.308
33
xSLG0.584
72
xwOBA0.309
52
BB%10.3%
70
Bat speed71.0
71
K%28.1%
22
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · RF
49
Arm Strength92.2 · RF
45
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · RF
6
Range Runs-2.6 · RF
23
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.9 · RF
65
SB Success Rate100.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-07-16
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.9% · rebadged research
57
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.0% · rebadged research
61
Correct Decisions66.4% · rebadged research
52
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.304 · borderline
18
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · insufficient sample
60
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271 · validated thin sample
77
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · insufficient sample
64
Resists FastballwOBA 0.291 · validated
99
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.374 · validated
16
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
61
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA O'Neill, Tyler · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.309 2026-07-05: 0.2962026-07-06: 0.2962026-07-07: 0.3012026-07-08: 0.3012026-07-09: 0.2982026-07-10: 0.3152026-07-11: 0.3202026-07-12: 0.3182026-07-13: 0.3122026-07-14: 0.3092026-07-15: 0.3092026-07-16: 0.309 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

83 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart O'Neill, Tyler · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 22% of plotted batted ballsPull 22%Center field third: 65% of plotted batted ballsCenter 65%Right field third: 13% of plotted batted ballsOppo 13% LF 333 CF 400 RF 318 2026-03-19 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 46.7 / LA -51.02026-03-19 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 88.1 / LA 51.02026-03-21 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.7 / LA 3.02026-03-21 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 99.1 / LA 2.02026-03-22 · double · SL · fly_ball · EV 101.5 / LA 23.02026-03-22 · field out · FF · popup · EV 89.7 / LA 68.02026-03-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 79.5 / LA 33.02026-03-23 · grounded into double play · FC · ground_ball · EV 87.4 / LA -7.02026-03-26 · field out · FF · popup · EV 76.7 / LA 59.02026-03-26 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.4 / LA -10.02026-03-28 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.9 / LA -21.02026-03-29 · field out · FF · popup · EV 89.5 / LA 77.02026-03-29 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 109.0 / LA 27.02026-03-29 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 59.7 / LA -9.02026-03-30 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 76.6 / LA 13.02026-03-30 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 98.5 / LA 38.02026-03-30 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.6 / LA 2.02026-03-31 · field out · SI · popup · EV 67.4 / LA 70.02026-04-04 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 102.1 / LA 10.02026-04-04 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.7 / LA 29.02026-04-05 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 77.8 / LA 18.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · popup · EV 80.0 / LA 72.02026-04-06 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.4 / LA 6.02026-04-06 · single · FC · fly_ball · EV 79.9 / LA 48.02026-04-06 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.0 / LA -19.02026-04-06 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 72.4 / LA 11.02026-04-07 · field out · FF · popup · EV 95.4 / LA 64.02026-04-07 · single · SI · fly_ball · EV 83.6 / LA 42.02026-04-07 · single · CH · fly_ball · EV 78.9 / LA 30.02026-04-08 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 68.9 / LA 10.02026-04-08 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 92.4 / LA 53.02026-04-25 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 102.7 / LA 17.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.7 / LA 57.02026-04-25 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 101.7 / LA 44.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.0 / LA 49.02026-04-30 · field out · KC · line_drive · EV 104.9 / LA 17.02026-04-30 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 98.1 / LA 10.02026-05-02 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 89.9 / LA 45.02026-05-03 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.4 / LA 48.02026-05-03 · field error · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.6 / LA -24.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.5 / LA 39.02026-05-06 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 70.9 / LA 8.02026-05-07 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.3 / LA 42.02026-05-07 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 91.3 / LA 15.02026-05-07 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 102.7 / LA -1.02026-05-08 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 60.3 / LA -36.02026-05-08 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 82.0 / LA 36.02026-05-08 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 71.9 / LA 1.02026-05-09 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 82.0 / LA -3.02026-05-12 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 89.8 / LA 25.02026-05-12 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 83.4 / LA -19.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 81.4 / LA 30.02026-05-15 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 96.9 / LA 36.02026-05-15 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 97.7 / LA 28.02026-05-16 · field out · FF · popup · EV 80.2 / LA 55.02026-05-16 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 103.0 / LA -3.02026-05-16 · home run · FF · line_drive · EV 110.9 / LA 21.02026-05-17 · field out · SI · popup · EV 90.9 / LA 79.02026-05-17 · single · SL · fly_ball · EV 73.4 / LA 35.02026-05-17 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 84.7 / LA 34.02026-05-18 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 95.7 / LA 18.02026-05-18 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 92.4 / LA 30.02026-05-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.7 / LA 37.02026-05-18 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.7 / LA -16.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 94.8 / LA 34.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 86.5 / LA 48.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 70.0 / LA 44.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 75.2 / LA -15.02026-05-22 · grounded into double play · FS · ground_ball · EV 67.8 / LA -18.02026-05-22 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 92.1 / LA 58.02026-05-24 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 97.4 / LA 30.02026-05-24 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 61.2 / LA 34.02026-05-25 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 76.3 / LA 24.02026-05-25 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 54.2 / LA -66.02026-05-27 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 96.8 / LA 16.02026-06-07 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.2 / LA 57.02026-06-07 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 76.4 / LA -9.02026-06-07 · field out · FF · popup · EV 77.0 / LA 74.02026-06-22 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 99.6 / LA 16.02026-06-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 80.3 / LA 56.02026-06-22 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 108.8 / LA 9.02026-06-26 · double · CU · line_drive · EV 104.0 / LA 13.02026-07-01 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 109.5 / LA 30.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile O'Neill, Tyler · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 47%47%Chase: 28%28%Whiff: 28%28%Zone contact: 83%83%Contact: 72%72%Hard hit: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Projected to do more damage vs lefties (0.281 vs 0.246 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
3
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
4
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.013
wOBA Δ-0.017
Sample185 PA

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances361----
Home Runs16----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3220.275 to 0.376+/- 0.051
ISO0.1990.151 to 0.294+/- 0.071
Barrel%7.1%5.4% to 11.1%+/- 2.8%
Hard-Hit%44.8%36.9% to 53.5%+/- 8.3%
K%26.7%22.3% to 34.3%+/- 6.0%
BB%10.3%7.4% to 13.8%+/- 3.2%
BABIP0.2710.192 to 0.328+/- 0.068
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

610 career PA

xwOBA0.281
K%20.6%
BB%10.8%
Barrel8.5%
vs RHP

1828 career PA

xwOBA0.246
K%22.4%
BB%7.6%
Barrel5.8%