Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / BOS · 2026
Narváez, Carlos
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team BOS
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.312 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.291 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.304 |
| Observed weight | 39% |
xwOBA
0.269
0.285
0.304
0.323
0.339
wOBA
0.267
0.291
0.318
0.345
0.369
ISO
0.098
0.118
0.140
0.162
0.182
K%
24.6%
26.1%
27.8%
29.6%
31.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%8.0%
41
Barrel%4.3%
40
-16 vs proj
Bat speed68.9
39
Exit velocity89.3
58
Hard-hit%38.6%
44
-25 vs proj
K%29.7%
14
-19 vs proj
xBA0.346
71
xSLG0.519
52
xwOBA0.291
33
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs1.3 · C
95
Catcher Throwing1.1 · C
79
Framing Runs2.8 · C
88
Pop Time2.0 · C
23
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.1 · C
7
SB Success Rate100.0% · C
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.1% · rebadged research
39
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.4% · rebadged research
21
Correct Decisions67.1% · rebadged research
58
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.282 · borderline
58
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.303 · insufficient sample
5
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.270 · validated thin sample
71
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.334 · insufficient sample
43
Resists FastballwOBA 0.313 · validated
92
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.365 · validated
29
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
24
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
82 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.010 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.016 |
| Sample | 138 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 438 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 14 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.301 | 0.256 to 0.352 | +/- 0.048 |
| ISO | 0.161 | 0.097 to 0.228 | +/- 0.065 |
| Barrel% | 5.6% | 3.1% to 7.8% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 44.6% | 35.0% to 50.3% | +/- 7.7% |
| K% | 25.4% | 21.1% to 29.7% | +/- 4.3% |
| BB% | 8.4% | 5.9% to 11.7% | +/- 2.9% |
| BABIP | 0.293 | 0.260 to 0.339 | +/- 0.040 |
vs LHP
150 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.207 |
| K% | 16.4% |
| BB% | 7.3% |
| Barrel | 4.1% |
vs RHP
353 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.190 |
| K% | 17.7% |
| BB% | 5.8% |
| Barrel | 3.8% |