Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / BOS · 2026
Narváez, Carlos
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team BOS
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
43
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.312 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.271 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.293 |
| Observed weight | 46% |
xwOBA
0.261
0.276
0.293
0.310
0.325
wOBA
0.236
0.255
0.277
0.299
0.319
ISO
0.089
0.106
0.126
0.145
0.162
K%
25.6%
27.0%
28.6%
30.2%
31.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.2%
37
-21 vs proj
Exit velocity88.5
55
Hard-hit%38.3%
47
-28 vs proj
xBA0.321
50
xSLG0.510
50
xwOBA0.271
17
-27 vs proj
BB%6.8%
29
-19 vs proj
Bat speed69.0
40
K%30.9%
13
-21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs1.7 · C
95
Catcher Throwing0.2 · C
64
Framing Runs4.1 · C
93
Pop Time2.0 · C
21
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.3 · C
8
SB Success Rate100.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.0% · rebadged research
37
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.1% · rebadged research
23
Correct Decisions67.0% · rebadged research
60
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.275 · borderline
78
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.305 · insufficient sample
6
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.282 · validated thin sample
43
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.331 · insufficient sample
49
Resists FastballwOBA 0.314 · validated
89
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.359 · validated
50
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
26
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
89 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.030 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.024 |
| Sample | 191 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 438 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 14 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.301 | 0.256 to 0.352 | +/- 0.048 |
| ISO | 0.161 | 0.097 to 0.228 | +/- 0.065 |
| Barrel% | 5.6% | 3.1% to 7.8% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 44.6% | 35.0% to 50.3% | +/- 7.7% |
| K% | 25.4% | 21.1% to 29.7% | +/- 4.3% |
| BB% | 8.4% | 5.9% to 11.7% | +/- 2.9% |
| BABIP | 0.293 | 0.260 to 0.339 | +/- 0.040 |
vs LHP
150 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.207 |
| K% | 16.4% |
| BB% | 7.3% |
| Barrel | 4.1% |
vs RHP
353 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.190 |
| K% | 17.7% |
| BB% | 5.8% |
| Barrel | 3.8% |