Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BAL · 2026

Wolfram, Grant

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
22.7% K%
Range
15.3% to 29.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team BAL Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
66
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
65
Arsenal5 metrics
55
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.88
ERA current pace4.30
ERA rolling p504.09
Observed weight49%
ERA
2.35 3.17 4.09 5.00 5.82
FIP
2.54 2.88 3.26 3.64 3.98
K%
20.5% 22.4% 24.5% 26.6% 28.5%
BB%
6.2% 7.4% 8.7% 9.9% 11.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.33
51
ERA4.30
43
BB%7.0%
77 +44 vs proj
K%27.4%
83 +28 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.289
78
Barrel allowed6.8%
60
Fastball velo95.7
71
Hard-hit allowed37.0%
61
Whiff%23.8%
59
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Mithrandir Stuff+104
72
Sinker Stuff+111
97
Curveball Stuff+104
75
Fastball Stuff+97
17
Slider Stuff+96
15
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 39%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Wolfram, Grant · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.289 2026-09-13: 0.2862026-09-14: 0.2862026-09-18: 0.2892026-09-19: 0.2902026-09-20: 0.2902026-09-21: 0.2892026-09-22: 0.2892026-09-23: 0.2892026-09-24: 0.2892026-09-25: 0.2892026-09-26: 0.2892026-09-27: 0.289 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Wolfram, Grant · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wolfram, Grant · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 38.8%4-Seam Fastball: 23.3%Curveball: 15.8%Slider: 11.8%Sweeper: 9.2%Cutter: 1.0% SI39% · 96 mphprimary pitch SI 39%FF 23%CU 16%SL 12%ST 9%FC 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wolfram, Grant · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 39% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 95.8 mphSI96 mph4-Seam Fastball: 23% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 95.5 mphFF96 mphCurveball: 16% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 85.4 mphCU85 mphSlider: 12% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 87.1 mphSL87 mphSweeper: 9% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 86.3 mphST86 mphCutter: 1% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 92.9 mphFC93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 39.2% 220 111 qualified
SL 23.0% 129 96 limited sample
FB 22.3% 125 97 limited sample
CB 15.5% 87 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.226 vs 0.247 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 41%, Slider 25%, 4-Seam Fastball 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.60
K% Δ+0.047
Sample52.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings33.0----
Batters Faced158----
K%22.7%15.3% to 29.3%+/- 7.0%
BB%10.2%6.5% to 15.0%+/- 4.3%
Whiff%23.4%18.6% to 29.7%+/- 5.5%
HR/91.050.40 to 1.74+/- 0.67
xwOBA Against0.2930.252 to 0.355+/- 0.052
Barrel% Allowed6.1%1.6% to 8.9%+/- 3.6%
ERA3.701.96 to 6.86+/- 2.45
FIP3.722.77 to 4.80+/- 1.02
WHIP1.3461.134 to 1.899+/- 0.382
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

61 career BF

xwOBA0.226
K%18.7%
BB%9.5%
Barrel2.5%
vs RHH

82 career BF

xwOBA0.247
K%15.9%
BB%9.5%
Barrel3.2%