Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BAL · 2026

Wolfram, Grant

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
22.7% K%
Range
15.3% to 29.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team BAL Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
67
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
64
Arsenal5 metrics
62
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.92
ERA current pace4.76
ERA rolling p504.21
Observed weight35%
ERA
2.40 3.26 4.21 5.16 6.02
FIP
2.54 2.90 3.29 3.69 4.04
K%
18.6% 20.9% 23.4% 26.0% 28.3%
BB%
5.4% 6.8% 8.3% 9.9% 11.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.28
58
ERA4.76
30
BB%4.7%
97 +65 vs proj
K%26.6%
77 +25 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.287
75
Barrel allowed7.1%
59
Fastball velo95.6
69
Hard-hit allowed38.1%
56
Whiff%24.2%
59
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Curveball Stuff+105
93
Fastball Stuff+97
19
Mithrandir Stuff+106
81
Sinker Stuff+109
95
Slider Stuff+98
23
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 41%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Wolfram, Grant · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.287 2026-07-05: 0.2852026-07-06: 0.2892026-07-07: 0.2892026-07-08: 0.2892026-07-09: 0.2892026-07-10: 0.2982026-07-11: 0.2982026-07-12: 0.2982026-07-13: 0.2932026-07-14: 0.2872026-07-15: 0.2872026-07-16: 0.287 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Wolfram, Grant · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wolfram, Grant · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 41.5%4-Seam Fastball: 19.7%Curveball: 15.2%Sweeper: 11.3%Slider: 10.5%Cutter: 1.8% SI41% · 96 mphprimary pitch SI 41%FF 20%CU 15%ST 11%SL 10%FC 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wolfram, Grant · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 41% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 95.8 mphSI96 mph4-Seam Fastball: 20% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 95.2 mphFF95 mphCurveball: 15% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 85.3 mphCU85 mphSweeper: 11% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 86.4 mphST86 mphSlider: 10% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 87.0 mphSL87 mphCutter: 2% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 92.9 mphFC93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 42.2% 124 109 limited sample
SL 26.2% 77 98 limited sample
FB 17.0% 50 97 limited sample
CB 14.6% 43 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.226 vs 0.247 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 41%, Slider 25%, 4-Seam Fastball 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.06
K% Δ+0.038
Sample29.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings33.4----
Batters Faced159----
K%22.7%15.3% to 29.3%+/- 7.0%
BB%10.2%6.5% to 15.0%+/- 4.3%
Whiff%23.4%18.6% to 29.7%+/- 5.5%
HR/91.050.40 to 1.74+/- 0.67
xwOBA Against0.2930.252 to 0.355+/- 0.052
Barrel% Allowed6.1%1.6% to 8.9%+/- 3.6%
ERA3.701.96 to 6.86+/- 2.45
FIP3.722.77 to 4.80+/- 1.02
WHIP1.3461.134 to 1.899+/- 0.382
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

61 career BF

xwOBA0.226
K%18.7%
BB%9.5%
Barrel2.5%
vs RHH

82 career BF

xwOBA0.247
K%15.9%
BB%9.5%
Barrel3.2%