Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.257 vs 0.222 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / BAL · 2026
Holliday, Jackson
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team BAL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 23
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
57
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.328 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.328 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.328 |
| Observed weight | 39% |
xwOBA
0.291
0.309
0.328
0.347
0.364
wOBA
0.263
0.287
0.313
0.339
0.363
ISO
0.129
0.148
0.169
0.191
0.210
K%
20.1%
21.7%
23.5%
25.4%
27.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.3%
69
Exit velocity87.3
39
Hard-hit%36.9%
41
-33 vs proj
xBA0.330
59
xSLG0.560
66
xwOBA0.328
70
BB%14.7%
97
+45 vs proj
Bat speed67.8
26
K%25.9%
32
-27 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength82.1 · 2B
15
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 2B
28
Range Runs-1.4 · 2B
34
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts2.0 · 2B
33
Sprint Speed28.4 · 2B
79
SB Success Rate100.0% · 2B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.4% · rebadged research
69
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.3% · rebadged research
82
Correct Decisions67.7% · rebadged research
65
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.285 · borderline
57
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.281 · insufficient sample
43
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273 · validated thin sample
73
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.345 · insufficient sample
20
Resists FastballwOBA 0.337 · validated
55
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.350 · validated
75
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
84
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
32 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.011 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.004 |
| Sample | 143 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 557 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 15 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.317 | 0.285 to 0.385 | +/- 0.050 |
| ISO | 0.160 | 0.098 to 0.221 | +/- 0.062 |
| Barrel% | 6.2% | 3.6% to 8.2% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 44.5% | 38.3% to 49.3% | +/- 5.5% |
| K% | 21.0% | 17.8% to 27.6% | +/- 4.9% |
| BB% | 8.7% | 6.1% to 11.6% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.295 | 0.245 to 0.342 | +/- 0.049 |
vs LHP
232 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.222 |
| K% | 19.9% |
| BB% | 5.8% |
| Barrel | 3.3% |
vs RHP
659 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.257 |
| K% | 17.6% |
| BB% | 7.7% |
| Barrel | 5.2% |