Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BAL · 2026

Garcia, Rico

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.0% K%
Range
19.3% to 29.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team BAL Archetype Balanced reliever Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
81
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
81
Arsenal5 metrics
76
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.15
ERA current pace3.09
ERA rolling p503.58
Observed weight53%
ERA
2.26 2.89 3.58 4.28 4.90
FIP
3.21 3.58 3.99 4.40 4.77
K%
22.2% 23.6% 25.1% 26.6% 28.0%
BB%
5.8% 6.7% 7.7% 8.6% 9.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.95
96
ERA3.09
81
BB%8.0%
62
K%25.9%
77 +19 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.265
91 +46 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.1%
85 +45 vs proj
Fastball velo95.4
66
Hard-hit allowed33.1%
87
Whiff%29.1%
90 +22 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+105
76
Mithrandir Stuff+105
75
Changeup Stuff+107
86
Curveball Stuff+105
87
Slider Stuff+102
55
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Garcia, Rico · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.265 2026-09-13: 0.2712026-09-14: 0.2712026-09-18: 0.2662026-09-19: 0.2692026-09-20: 0.2692026-09-21: 0.2692026-09-22: 0.2662026-09-23: 0.2662026-09-24: 0.2652026-09-25: 0.2652026-09-26: 0.2652026-09-27: 0.265 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Garcia, Rico · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 33%33% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Garcia, Rico · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 32.8%Changeup: 27.1%Curveball: 24.4%Slider: 15.7% FF33% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 33%CH 27%CU 24%SL 16% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Garcia, Rico · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 33% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 95.4 mphFF95 mphChangeup: 27% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 86.7 mphCH87 mphCurveball: 24% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 87.0 mphCU87 mphSlider: 16% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 89.0 mphSL89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 35.8% 248 105 qualified
CH 27.0% 187 107 limited sample
CB 23.5% 163 105 limited sample
SL 13.7% 95 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 39%, Changeup 22%, Curveball 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.15
K% Δ+0.029
Sample68.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings63.2----
Batters Faced270----
K%23.0%19.3% to 29.0%+/- 4.8%
BB%7.7%4.8% to 10.9%+/- 3.0%
Whiff%25.1%20.5% to 30.0%+/- 4.7%
HR/91.340.91 to 2.29+/- 0.69
xwOBA Against0.3170.266 to 0.327+/- 0.031
Barrel% Allowed8.0%5.2% to 10.7%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.242.44 to 6.16+/- 1.86
FIP3.953.12 to 5.32+/- 1.10
WHIP1.2471.051 to 1.691+/- 0.320
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

153 career BF

xwOBA0.258
K%21.0%
BB%7.4%
Barrel7.4%
vs RHH

200 career BF

xwOBA0.248
K%20.5%
BB%5.2%
Barrel6.9%