Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BAL · 2026

Bradish, Kyle

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
26.9% K%
Range
23.1% to 34.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team BAL Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 30 Status IL-60
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
36
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
40
Arsenal5 metrics
49
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.42
ERA current pace4.12
ERA rolling p503.94
Observed weight74%
ERA
2.74 3.31 3.94 4.57 5.14
FIP
3.58 3.86 4.16 4.46 4.73
K%
20.7% 21.7% 22.8% 23.9% 24.9%
BB%
8.5% 9.1% 9.8% 10.5% 11.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.48
24
ERA4.12
49
BB%10.5%
30 -27 vs proj
K%21.0%
42 -39 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.324
36 -35 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.2%
39
Fastball velo94.5
52
Hard-hit allowed39.4%
43
Whiff%22.4%
49 -25 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Curveball Stuff+103
53
Fastball Stuff+100
37
Mithrandir Stuff+102
52
Sinker Stuff+100
31
Slider Stuff+104
70
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 36%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Bradish, Kyle · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.324 2026-09-12: 0.3182026-09-13: 0.3242026-09-14: 0.3242026-09-18: 0.3242026-09-19: 0.3242026-09-20: 0.3242026-09-21: 0.3242026-09-22: 0.3242026-09-23: 0.3242026-09-24: 0.3242026-09-25: 0.3242026-09-26: 0.324 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Bradish, Kyle · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 33%33%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 43%43%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bradish, Kyle · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 36.2%Slider: 24.3%Curveball: 21.7%4-Seam Fastball: 17.3%Changeup: 0.5% SI36% · 95 mphprimary pitch SI 36%SL 24%CU 22%FF 17%CH 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bradish, Kyle · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 36% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 94.7 mphSI95 mphSlider: 24% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 87.4 mphSL87 mphCurveball: 22% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 51″ drop, 84.8 mphCU85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 17% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 94.2 mphFF94 mphChangeup: 1% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 90.4 mphCH90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 36.2% 684 100 qualified
SL 24.1% 454 104 qualified
CB 21.7% 409 103 qualified
FB 17.8% 336 100 qualified
CH 0.2% 4 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 33%, Slider 32%, 4-Seam Fastball 23%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.70
K% Δ-0.059
Sample157.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.7----
Batters Faced270----
K%26.9%23.1% to 34.6%+/- 5.8%
BB%8.3%5.4% to 10.8%+/- 2.7%
Whiff%25.8%21.9% to 30.8%+/- 4.5%
HR/91.130.52 to 1.66+/- 0.57
xwOBA Against0.2970.259 to 0.324+/- 0.032
Barrel% Allowed8.0%5.4% to 10.7%+/- 2.7%
ERA3.421.88 to 4.94+/- 1.53
FIP3.382.32 to 3.77+/- 0.73
WHIP1.1670.965 to 1.403+/- 0.219
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

662 career BF

xwOBA0.285
K%26.8%
BB%8.6%
Barrel7.7%
vs RHH

884 career BF

xwOBA0.267
K%26.3%
BB%6.1%
Barrel6.9%