Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BAL · 2026

Walker, Josh

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
24.2% K%
Range
14.0% to 30.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team BAL Archetype Volatile contact Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
74
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
65
Arsenal5 metrics
34
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.89
ERA current pace1.57
ERA rolling p503.09
Observed weight34%
ERA
1.29 2.14 3.09 4.04 4.90
FIP
1.64 2.47 3.39 4.30 5.13
K%
16.7% 19.3% 22.3% 25.3% 27.9%
BB%
6.2% 7.6% 9.2% 10.9% 12.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.19
75
ERA1.57
98
BB%9.5%
43
K%23.0%
58
xwOBA allowed0.255
95 +18 vs proj
Barrel allowed3.6%
96 +53 vs proj
Fastball velo92.8
25
Hard-hit allowed35.7%
70
Whiff%19.6%
24 -49 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+98
27
Fastball Stuff+99
28
Mithrandir Stuff+100
27
Sinker Stuff+105
75
Slider Stuff+95
10
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 38%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Walker, Josh · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.255 2026-09-12: 0.2492026-09-13: 0.2492026-09-14: 0.2492026-09-18: 0.2452026-09-19: 0.2492026-09-20: 0.2492026-09-21: 0.2492026-09-22: 0.2492026-09-23: 0.2492026-09-24: 0.2472026-09-25: 0.2472026-09-26: 0.255 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Walker, Josh · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Walker, Josh · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 37.8%Sinker: 27.1%4-Seam Fastball: 25.1%Changeup: 9.9% SL38% · 83 mphprimary pitch SL 38%SI 27%FF 25%CH 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Walker, Josh · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ Slider: 38% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 83.2 mphSL83 mphSinker: 27% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 92.7 mphSI93 mph4-Seam Fastball: 25% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 93.0 mphFF93 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 85.7 mphCH86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 39.8% 139 95 limited sample
SI 26.1% 91 105 limited sample
FB 25.2% 88 99 limited sample
CH 8.9% 31 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Curveball 52%, 4-Seam Fastball 41%, Sinker 7%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.08
K% Δ-0.012
Sample30.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings28.7----
Batters Faced131----
K%24.2%14.0% to 30.4%+/- 8.2%
BB%9.9%4.7% to 13.4%+/- 4.3%
Whiff%25.7%16.5% to 29.9%+/- 6.7%
HR/91.100.02 to 1.86+/- 0.92
xwOBA Against0.2900.193 to 0.362+/- 0.084
Barrel% Allowed7.9%3.8% to 12.7%+/- 4.4%
ERA3.651.78 to 6.65+/- 2.44
FIP3.461.78 to 6.48+/- 2.35
WHIP1.3050.980 to 1.769+/- 0.395
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

60 career BF

xwOBA0.201
K%17.4%
BB%7.4%
Barrel5.9%
vs RHH

91 career BF

xwOBA0.216
K%16.5%
BB%7.6%
Barrel8.1%