Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BAL · 2026

Povich, Cade

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.7% K%
Range
19.6% to 28.5%
Live Δ
--
Team BAL Archetype Volatile contact Age 26 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-16
31
Pitching
percentile
Arsenal6 metrics
31
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-16
ERA preseason4.21
ERA current pace5.12
ERA rolling p504.44
Observed weight25%
ERA
3.31 3.84 4.44 5.03 5.57
FIP
3.74 4.10 4.50 4.90 5.26
K%
18.0% 19.6% 21.5% 23.4% 25.1%
BB%
5.8% 6.8% 7.9% 8.9% 9.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-16
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-16
Changeup Stuff+99
27
Curveball Stuff+99
14
Fastball Stuff+107
85
Mithrandir Stuff+100
36
Sinker Stuff+96
17
Slider Stuff+92
6
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 43%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

0 snapshots
No chart yet

No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Povich, Cade · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 33%33%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Povich, Cade · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 43.1%Curveball: 22.7%Slider: 16.4%Sinker: 9.2%Changeup: 8.6% FF43% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 43%CU 23%SL 16%SI 9%CH 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Povich, Cade · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 43% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 91.9 mphFF92 mphCurveball: 23% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 64″ drop, 76.1 mphCU76 mphSlider: 16% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 86.5 mphSL86 mphSinker: 9% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 91.4 mphSI91 mphChangeup: 9% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 84.8 mphCH85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 43.1% 131 107 limited sample
CB 22.7% 69 99 limited sample
SL 16.4% 50 92 limited sample
SI 9.2% 28 96 limited sample
CH 8.6% 26 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.282 vs 0.309 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 37%, Curveball 22%, Changeup 15%.
Live context

Current-season signal

No Live State delta is available for this player yet.

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings71.3----
Batters Faced317----
K%22.7%19.6% to 28.5%+/- 4.5%
BB%8.3%6.0% to 10.8%+/- 2.4%
Whiff%22.1%19.8% to 27.5%+/- 3.8%
HR/91.430.90 to 2.05+/- 0.57
xwOBA Against0.3180.295 to 0.341+/- 0.023
Barrel% Allowed8.6%6.3% to 12.8%+/- 3.2%
ERA4.163.33 to 6.20+/- 1.43
FIP4.083.12 to 5.05+/- 0.97
WHIP1.2981.109 to 1.635+/- 0.263
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

219 career BF

xwOBA0.282
K%23.3%
BB%7.4%
Barrel8.1%
vs RHH

641 career BF

xwOBA0.309
K%21.6%
BB%8.2%
Barrel10.0%