Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 53%, Changeup 21%, Curveball 13%.
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026
Peralta, Freddy
Breaking-ball driven starter profile
Team NYM
Archetype Breaking-ball attack
Age 30
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.49 |
| ERA current pace | 3.52 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.51 |
| Observed weight | 54% |
ERA
2.54
3.00
3.51
4.02
4.48
FIP
3.24
3.57
3.93
4.29
4.62
K%
22.5%
23.9%
25.5%
27.0%
28.4%
BB%
7.4%
8.2%
9.0%
9.8%
10.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%9.8%
34
-15 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.3%
79
+40 vs proj
Fastball velo93.9
43
Hard-hit allowed39.6%
49
K%23.9%
59
-16 vs proj
Whiff%24.4%
62
xwOBA allowed0.304
60
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+100
37
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
5Pitches
2026Season
54%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 54.8% | 573 | 103 | qualified |
| CH | 22.3% | 233 | 106 | qualified |
| CB | 14.4% | 151 | 98 | limited sample |
| SL | 8.5% | 89 | 89 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +0.07 |
| K% Δ | -0.022 |
| Sample | 65.0 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 146.5 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 610 | -- | -- |
| K% | 26.1% | 23.0% to 33.4% | +/- 5.2% |
| BB% | 8.8% | 6.8% to 11.2% | +/- 2.2% |
| Whiff% | 25.5% | 24.0% to 32.2% | +/- 4.1% |
| HR/9 | 1.31 | 0.98 to 2.09 | +/- 0.56 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.310 | 0.267 to 0.331 | +/- 0.032 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.5% | 5.8% to 12.6% | +/- 3.4% |
| ERA | 3.45 | 2.37 to 5.10 | +/- 1.37 |
| FIP | 4.05 | 2.83 to 4.77 | +/- 0.97 |
| WHIP | 1.218 | 1.012 to 1.439 | +/- 0.214 |
vs LHH
2103 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.294 |
| K% | 24.9% |
| BB% | 10.1% |
| Barrel | 9.3% |
vs RHH
2127 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.279 |
| K% | 27.8% |
| BB% | 7.4% |
| Barrel | 9.7% |