Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026

Peralta, Freddy

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
26.1% K%
Range
23.0% to 33.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYM Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
42
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
50
Arsenal5 metrics
39
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.49
ERA current pace4.66
ERA rolling p504.26
Observed weight66%
ERA
3.25 3.73 4.26 4.80 5.28
FIP
3.45 3.79 4.17 4.55 4.90
K%
21.6% 22.8% 24.0% 25.3% 26.4%
BB%
7.6% 8.2% 9.0% 9.7% 10.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.45
27
ERA4.66
32
BB%9.4%
39
K%22.3%
49 -26 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.303
63
Barrel allowed5.4%
81 +43 vs proj
Fastball velo94.1
46
Hard-hit allowed39.0%
50
Whiff%24.3%
60
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Changeup Stuff+107
81
Fastball Stuff+103
55
Mithrandir Stuff+101
42
Curveball Stuff+99
15
Slider Stuff+92
4
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 53%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Peralta, Freddy · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.303 2026-07-05: 0.3022026-07-06: 0.3022026-07-07: 0.3022026-07-08: 0.3012026-07-09: 0.3012026-07-10: 0.3012026-07-11: 0.3012026-07-12: 0.3012026-07-13: 0.3032026-07-14: 0.3032026-07-15: 0.3032026-07-16: 0.303 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Peralta, Freddy · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Peralta, Freddy · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 53.1%Changeup: 21.2%Curveball: 13.3%Slider: 6.0%Sweeper: 4.8%Slow Curve: 1.6% FF53% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 53%CH 21%CU 13%SL 6%ST 5%CS 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Peralta, Freddy · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 53% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 94.1 mphFF94 mphChangeup: 21% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 87.3 mphCH87 mphCurveball: 13% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 79.4 mphCU79 mphSlider: 6% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 83.1 mphSL83 mphSweeper: 5% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 81.7 mphST82 mphSlow Curve: 2% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 58″ drop, 74.9 mphCS75 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 54.8% 667 103 qualified
CH 21.9% 266 107 qualified
CB 15.0% 182 99 limited sample
SL 8.4% 102 92 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 53%, Changeup 21%, Curveball 13%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.21
K% Δ-0.038
Sample103.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings147.7----
Batters Faced615----
K%26.1%23.0% to 33.4%+/- 5.2%
BB%8.8%6.8% to 11.2%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%25.5%24.0% to 32.2%+/- 4.1%
HR/91.310.98 to 2.09+/- 0.56
xwOBA Against0.3100.267 to 0.331+/- 0.032
Barrel% Allowed8.5%5.8% to 12.6%+/- 3.4%
ERA3.452.37 to 5.10+/- 1.37
FIP4.052.83 to 4.77+/- 0.97
WHIP1.2181.012 to 1.439+/- 0.214
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2103 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%24.9%
BB%10.1%
Barrel9.3%
vs RHH

2127 career BF

xwOBA0.279
K%27.8%
BB%7.4%
Barrel9.7%