Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026

Peralta, Freddy

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
26.1% K%
Range
23.0% to 33.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
49
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
54
Arsenal5 metrics
44
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.52
ERA current pace4.67
ERA rolling p504.39
Observed weight75%
ERA
3.29 3.81 4.39 4.96 5.48
FIP
3.38 3.75 4.15 4.56 4.92
K%
20.9% 21.8% 22.8% 23.9% 24.8%
BB%
7.3% 7.9% 8.5% 9.1% 9.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.34
48
ERA4.67
34
BB%8.6%
53
K%21.4%
44 -33 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.302
66 +17 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.8%
78 +44 vs proj
Fastball velo94.3
49
Hard-hit allowed37.3%
59
Whiff%23.2%
55 -17 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+106
80
Curveball Stuff+101
33
Fastball Stuff+103
56
Mithrandir Stuff+102
45
Slider Stuff+93
7
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 53%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Peralta, Freddy · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.302 2026-09-12: 0.3062026-09-13: 0.3062026-09-14: 0.3032026-09-18: 0.3032026-09-19: 0.3032026-09-20: 0.3032026-09-21: 0.3022026-09-22: 0.3022026-09-23: 0.3022026-09-24: 0.3022026-09-25: 0.3022026-09-26: 0.302 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Peralta, Freddy · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 42%42%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Peralta, Freddy · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 53.0%Changeup: 23.4%Curveball: 12.9%Sweeper: 5.7%Slider: 4.0%Slow Curve: 0.9% FF53% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 53%CH 23%CU 13%ST 6%SL 4%CS 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Peralta, Freddy · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 53% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 94.3 mphFF94 mphChangeup: 23% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 87.4 mphCH87 mphCurveball: 13% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 79.5 mphCU79 mphSweeper: 6% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 82.4 mphST82 mphSlider: 4% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 83.1 mphSL83 mphSlow Curve: 1% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 58″ drop, 74.8 mphCS75 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 53.7% 1014 103 qualified
CH 24.2% 457 106 qualified
CB 14.4% 272 101 qualified
SL 7.7% 145 93 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 53%, Changeup 21%, Curveball 13%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.18
K% Δ-0.047
Sample167.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings145.9----
Batters Faced608----
K%26.1%23.0% to 33.4%+/- 5.2%
BB%8.8%6.8% to 11.2%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%25.5%24.0% to 32.2%+/- 4.1%
HR/91.320.99 to 2.11+/- 0.56
xwOBA Against0.3130.270 to 0.334+/- 0.032
Barrel% Allowed8.5%5.8% to 12.6%+/- 3.4%
ERA3.492.39 to 5.15+/- 1.38
FIP4.052.83 to 4.77+/- 0.97
WHIP1.2401.030 to 1.465+/- 0.217
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2103 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%24.9%
BB%10.1%
Barrel9.3%
vs RHH

2127 career BF

xwOBA0.279
K%27.8%
BB%7.4%
Barrel9.7%