Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BAL · 2026

Hoppe, Alex

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
20.0% K%
Range
0.1% to 20.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team BAL Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
44
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
57
Arsenal4 metrics
42
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.02
ERA current pace4.43
ERA rolling p504.21
Observed weight45%
ERA
2.13 3.11 4.21 5.30 6.29
FIP
1.54 2.47 3.52 4.56 5.50
K%
13.7% 16.5% 19.5% 22.6% 25.3%
BB%
5.5% 6.7% 8.1% 9.5% 10.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.44
30
ERA4.43
40
BB%10.7%
29 -24 vs proj
K%23.9%
64 +27 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.309
54 -30 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.0%
94 +42 vs proj
Fastball velo98.4
96
Hard-hit allowed38.9%
47
Whiff%24.1%
61
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+104
65
Mithrandir Stuff+102
50
Sinker Stuff+98
22
Slider Stuff+99
30
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 38%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Hoppe, Alex · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.309 2026-09-12: 0.3052026-09-13: 0.3052026-09-14: 0.3052026-09-18: 0.3032026-09-19: 0.3032026-09-20: 0.3032026-09-21: 0.3002026-09-22: 0.3002026-09-23: 0.3002026-09-24: 0.3002026-09-25: 0.3002026-09-26: 0.309 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Hoppe, Alex · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 45%45%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hoppe, Alex · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 37.9%Slider: 37.3%Sinker: 23.7%Changeup: 1.1% FF38% · 98 mphprimary pitch FF 38%SL 37%SI 24%CH 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hoppe, Alex · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 38% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 98.4 mphFF98 mphSlider: 37% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 88.7 mphSL89 mphSinker: 24% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 98.4 mphSI98 mphChangeup: 1% usage, 17″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 92.1 mphCH92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 38.3% 182 104 limited sample
SL 35.6% 169 99 limited sample
SI 25.1% 119 98 limited sample
CH 1.1% 5 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.35
K% Δ+0.034
Sample43.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings30.2----
Batters Faced132----
K%20.0%0.1% to 20.1%+/- 10.0%
BB%8.7%0.1% to 8.6%+/- 4.3%
Whiff%22.4%2.1% to 26.5%+/- 12.2%
HR/91.170.00 to 1.43+/- 0.71
xwOBA Against0.2800.018 to 0.321+/- 0.152
Barrel% Allowed7.3%0.1% to 9.6%+/- 4.7%
ERA4.780.00 to 5.86+/- 2.93
FIP3.740.45 to 6.03+/- 2.79
WHIP1.2910.138 to 1.398+/- 0.630
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

0 career BF

xwOBA0.005
K%0.3%
BB%0.2%
Barrel0.1%
vs RHH

2 career BF

xwOBA0.005
K%0.3%
BB%0.1%
Barrel0.1%