Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BAL · 2026

Sanders, Cam

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.3% K%
Range
4.6% to 26.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team BAL Archetype Volatile contact Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
44
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
59
Arsenal5 metrics
23
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.84
ERA current pace4.94
ERA rolling p504.24
Observed weight36%
ERA
2.07 3.10 4.24 5.38 6.41
FIP
2.69 3.31 4.00 4.70 5.32
K%
15.4% 18.8% 22.6% 26.3% 29.7%
BB%
8.1% 9.7% 11.4% 13.1% 14.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.43
31
ERA4.94
28
BB%14.8%
4 -32 vs proj
K%31.1%
95 +59 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.303
64 +24 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.2%
54
Fastball velo96.0
75
Hard-hit allowed33.3%
85
Whiff%34.8%
99 +29 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+93
11
Fastball Stuff+99
25
Mithrandir Stuff+99
23
Sinker Stuff+94
9
Slider Stuff+102
47
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 46%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Sanders, Cam · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.303 2026-09-12: 0.3092026-09-13: 0.3112026-09-14: 0.3112026-09-18: 0.3112026-09-19: 0.3112026-09-20: 0.3112026-09-21: 0.3102026-09-22: 0.3102026-09-23: 0.3102026-09-24: 0.3102026-09-25: 0.3102026-09-26: 0.303 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Sanders, Cam · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 35%35%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 44%44%Hard hit allowed: 33%33% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sanders, Cam · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 45.7%Slider: 38.3%Changeup: 13.2%Sinker: 2.8% FF46% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 46%SL 38%CH 13%SI 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sanders, Cam · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 46% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 96.0 mphFF96 mphSlider: 38% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 85.7 mphSL86 mphChangeup: 13% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 90.6 mphCH91 mphSinker: 3% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 95.6 mphSI96 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 46.7% 195 99 limited sample
SL 37.8% 158 102 limited sample
CH 13.2% 55 93 limited sample
SI 2.4% 10 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 52%, Slider 25%, Changeup 12%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.77
K% Δ+0.108
Sample30.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings27.8----
Batters Faced130----
K%20.3%4.6% to 26.2%+/- 10.8%
BB%10.1%4.5% to 13.6%+/- 4.6%
Whiff%25.2%11.6% to 31.2%+/- 9.8%
HR/91.630.17 to 2.31+/- 1.07
xwOBA Against0.3200.140 to 0.351+/- 0.106
Barrel% Allowed7.7%1.5% to 11.1%+/- 4.8%
ERA4.170.68 to 6.59+/- 2.95
FIP4.582.77 to 6.36+/- 1.79
WHIP1.3920.922 to 1.743+/- 0.411
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

16 career BF

xwOBA0.176
K%6.7%
BB%8.8%
Barrel4.5%
vs RHH

37 career BF

xwOBA0.167
K%7.0%
BB%6.9%
Barrel4.3%